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chadders0's picture
those answers were perfect,

those answers were perfect, iv spotted at least a few leaks in my game from that. I think I have been doing ok vs the 3bets to t80-90 given your description of adjustments to make but i definately haven't been playing some middling hands optimallly below 15bb. Also basically always firing full stack if i have less than psb left on river which im guessin is undoubtedly a leak too. With the 3bet pots if our opponents range is polarised do you think this will mean flatting until the river will show the best expectation on average or do you prefer to just gii when we hit the flop in a good way. Imo flatting may be better because i think the money we get from bluffs will exceed the money we lose on giving free draws to overcards, though i guess on some wetter boards shoving will shove a greater expectation. so for ex say i minr and flat j7cc vs an opponent who 3bets around 25% (and i know he 3b shoves weak ax pp) i would shove over a cbet on 457 or with draws and on a board like kj3 i would just call down regardless of how the board came out.

 

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chadders0's picture
ok so this may sound like

ok so this may sound like spazz retarded theory/thoughts but bear with me,i played a reg the other day who it seemed had marked me sit4life and after quite an aggro dynamic i did something quite bad like c/minr 87o on j74 then c/c a T and 2 river for my stack, opponent had j9. However i then kept up the c/minr and lo and behold he gives it to me like 7 times in a row, obv lol small sample but that retarded play gave me somewhat of an unbluffable and donk image which was i thought insanely profitable because opponent snap adjusted poss thinking i was gonna spaz like that all the time. Im not sure how i can incorperate this profitably in a strategy but i'm trying to think outside the box a lil more when it comes to play vs ppl u have large samples on who you know have a certain degree of poker knowledge, i just wanna get inside peoples head and crush them, and do it in a way that makes them think im a total retard. tbh those last answers were so good i just wanna ask the most random shit, like what type of strategies can u use to exploit opponents in a way that they dont even know its happening, or is that something that happens naturally when ur playing a dumbass

 

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chadders0's picture
oh and the toenail came off,

oh and the toenail came off, life is good

 

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hokiegreg's picture
Also basically always firing

Also basically always firing full stack if i have less than psb left on river which im guessin is undoubtedly a leak too.a leak on 2 levels:1) 3 barreling all rivers is bad. if the river connects to villains range pretty hard, your 470 jam into a pot of 500 just isn't going to get enough folds to be correct (needs to work 470/500+470 or about 48.5%). 2) to be maximally exploitive, set up river stacks with <psb for value and around pot or >psb for bluffs. if you are barreling decent equity on the turn and will improve on a decent amount of rivers, i'd setup somewhere in between. fish/marginal regs have gotten the memo about pot odds (it's really common sense). they would rather call less getting better odds, than call more getting worse odds. i find that jamming 520 into 480 pot works quite a bit more than 440 into a 560 pot (needs to work 52 and 44% respectively, the reason you typically have a lot more fold equity with the bigger jam is bc your turn barrel size was smaller and got called by a wider range that can't face river barrels very often...people play more fit or fold on the turn with the bigger size and have at least a little more of a plan for the river)

hokiegreg's picture
With the 3bet pots if our

With the 3bet pots if our opponents range is polarised do you think this will mean flatting until the river will show the best expectation on average or do you prefer to just gii when we hit the flop in a good way. Imo flatting may be better because i think the money we get from bluffs will exceed the money we lose on giving free draws to overcards, though i guess on some wetter boards shoving will shove a greater expectation. so for ex say i minr and flat j7cc vs an opponent who 3bets around 25% (and i know he 3b shoves weak ax pp) i would shove over a cbet on 457 or with draws and on a board like kj3 i would just call down regardless of how the board came out.agree with all of this pretty much. i think you can fold the KJ3 board if your opponent isn't running big bluffs multiple streets often - just bc someone 3bet bluffs you pre doesn't mean they 3 barrel bluff post, i wouldn't fault you for calling down without great reads or anything though if he is active and seems capable. 

hokiegreg's picture
ok so this may sound like

ok so this may sound like spazz retarded theory/thoughts but bear with me,i played a reg the other day who it seemed had marked me sit4life and after quite an aggro dynamic i did something quite bad like c/minr 87o on j74 then c/c a T and 2 river for my stack, opponent had j9. However i then kept up the c/minr and lo and behold he gives it to me like 7 times in a row, obv lol small sample but that retarded play gave me somewhat of an unbluffable and donk image which was i thought insanely profitable because opponent snap adjusted poss thinking i was gonna spaz like that all the time. Im not sure how i can incorperate this profitably in a strategy but i'm trying to think outside the box a lil more when it comes to play vs ppl u have large samples on who you know have a certain degree of poker knowledge, i just wanna get inside peoples head and crush them, and do it in a way that makes them think im a total retard. tbh those last answers were so good i just wanna ask the most random shit, like what type of strategies can u use to exploit opponents in a way that they dont even know its happening, or is that something that happens naturally when ur playing a dumbassthe c/minraise with 87 was -ev. don't make -ev plays to create +ev dynamics (barring some mega-rare situation where you actually play someone ridiculously good and you know you're going to play him a lot). make +ev plays, use the image that is naturally built from that, and adjust accordingly. you exploit people by making more +ev decisions than them. it's that simple. i would MUCH rather you have c/r T9 on J73, villain flats, turn is a Q you barrel he calls, river is a 2 you jam he heros and you show your bluff. imo, your bluff in this spot would have been +ev vs most people, and you can now use the bluffy image created by you happening to have shown down part of your range that was air (your range here included both value and air...play your range not your individual hand). 78 was +ev as a c/c.A2 would be best as a c/f.QT with a backdoor flushdraw could be good to c/r or donkbet.

chadders0's picture
No Limit Holdem Tournament •

No Limit Holdem Tournament • 2 Players$58.74+$1.26 Hand converted by the official HUSNG.com hand converter SBHero530  BBvic44455470  Effective Stacks: 24bb Blinds 10/20 Pre-Flop (30, 2 players) Hero is SB Hero raises to 40, vic44455 calls 20   Flop (80, 2 players) vic44455 checks, Hero bets 30, vic44455 calls 30   Turn (140, 2 players) vic44455 bets 80, Hero folds   Final Pot: 220 vic44455 wins 220 ( won +70 ) Hero lost -70i think this is pretty standard, wondering what you thoughts are in genereal when facing a c/c donk turn line and spots where you think it would be good to apply that line (either as an adjustment or on particular boards as default for value/bluff or vs particular type of opponent).  my own thoughts on this line is that it can make people spew and is good for value against some more passiv epeople and as a bluf against v aggressive ppl (but would flop c/r just be better in this spot?), feel like it is under used by everyone in genereal and it seems like a spot where people are often spewing or being exploited. i imagine sizing could play a big part in achieving particular outcomes too. board wise im guessing a lot of it will depends on how the turn interacts with the rest of the board + spots on dry flops where double barreling will in genereal happen less, likely not much in the way of wet flops since we rarely c/c our value range on them. Maybe donkin bad turn barrelling cards with value range would be good.I like the stuff we did on limped pots oop and kinda looking for a new aspect to focus on to direct the picking of hh's a bit more. anything u can think of that would make for good discussion? (i know i should direct this more but nothing would be more satisfying than having a u drop a knowledge bomb about something i didnt even know was poker theory or strat). prob gonna mark some hh to discuss ck bak flops and donk flops (in response to real oppponents preflop ranges).  

 

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chadders0's picture
feel like im get pwned by

feel like im get pwned by some of the smarter regs with low pfr, they are mixing up their limping range to inc some strong hands which makes me tighten up my shoving over limps, and since i basically never have an ace in my range when i ck behind im gettin beat out of every pot that flops ace high. i half feel like all the free looks im gettin at flops is benefit enoough against these ppl who are actually over adjusting to my percieved agressiveness (like there are a few with pfr just under 50% who do ok against me and its tilting the fuck out of me because i just hate to think anyone that does that has an edge), but there are definately ways to take advantage of therse people that im not clued on.

 

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chadders0's picture
25bb deep flop comes 789,

25bb deep flop comes 789, face a cbet of 40, plan with j6 and q6, im just curious as to whether the jack kicker was slow us down as its potential as a live card is reduced from a jack putting a 4 card straight on there.q6 i c/ship readless  or donk/3b j6 im not sure whether to donk or c/r, i think a donk/fold and barrel is better because i think out equity vs his gii range if we c/ship isnt ever that great but not fan of c/r folding either.thoughts? also a4753, to barrel or not to barrel? (ip as pfr), im torn between the board gettin horrible for any 7 and our percieved range being polarised (do you think we get credit for thin vbet of ace with river ship)

 

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chadders0's picture
25bb deepminr j8o, face

25bb deepminr j8o, face c/minr to my 1/2pot cbet on T83 (rainbow), opponent open shoves turn 7. (270 into 240)what's your genereal strategy when facing c/raises in the early stages of a husng with medium strength hands, i guess 2n pair hands are the one im debating whether to put up a fight with and also paired boards, will you ever take a min3b bluff line as standard on certain boards? 

 

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hokiegreg's picture
i think this is pretty

i think this is pretty standard, wondering what you thoughts are in genereal when facing a c/c donk turn line and spots where you think it would be good to apply that line (either as an adjustment or on particular boards as default for value/bluff or vs particular type of opponent).  my own thoughts on this line is that it can make people spew and is good for value against some more passiv epeople and as a bluf against v aggressive ppl (but would flop c/r just be better in this spot?), feel like it is under used by everyone in genereal and it seems like a spot where people are often spewing or being exploited. i imagine sizing could play a big part in achieving particular outcomes too. board wise im guessing a lot of it will depends on how the turn interacts with the rest of the board + spots on dry flops where double barreling will in genereal happen less, likely not much in the way of wet flops since we rarely c/c our value range on them. Maybe donkin bad turn barrelling cards with value range would be good.I like the stuff we did on limped pots oop and kinda looking for a new aspect to focus on to direct the picking of hh's a bit more. anything u can think of that would make for good discussion? (i know i should direct this more but nothing would be more satisfying than having a u drop a knowledge bomb about something i didnt even know was poker theory or strat). prob gonna mark some hh to discuss ck bak flops and donk flops (in response to real oppponents preflop ranges).    ya turn fold is really standard for me. flat/lead turn as a bluff vs aggressive players is pretty meh to me. i'd rather c/r flop or c/r turn or just flat with equity and let them barrel-tard rivers (if we have lots of flop fold equity we might as well something with decent backdoor equity rather than float it, so we dont give them free equity to improve on turns - plus when we just flat their range is pretty undefined bc its so wide). flat/lead turn for value for me is mainly boards that people dont barrel wide on and shut down with a lot of hands that would definitely call a lead. for example, we c/c Q9 on Q83 - turn is a Q, definitley a good spot to lead as his 8X/3X/pocket pairs/gutshots are all checking back a ton of the time but will all call a lead a huge % of the time. definitely maximizes value to lead. even if our opponent respects our lead, they still aren't folding a lot of that range usually so i wouldnt worry about being too transparent.my attempt at dropping a knowledge bomb:we 3bet someone at any stacks with any range, range villain calls with doesnt matter to us, flop is 987 and we have a very accurate read that villain perceives our check on this board as overs/air giving up and will bet at this board with any pair or decent equity. we should not have a cbetting range vs this player. we should just be check/raising or check/folding. we allow villain to have bluffs in his range, noone seems to respect check/shoves on these type boards much (and hes pretty commited once he stabs at the pot) so he wont make any hero folds hardly ever. it maximizes our value. allows us to much more comfortably check our AK/AQ type stuff in this spot in the future and actually see a turn bc villain will perceive our range then as having more value in it (we should cbet our value then if we think villain has adjusted, as having seen us check/shove value will make our cbetting range appear weaker). we aren't worried about giving free equity to villain because we know he stabs such a huge amoutn of hands on a board he perceives us as missing. so basically having a leading range with this dynamic is not max EV. you need pretty specific reads for this though. cbetting your AA as a standard is obv best here,b ut if you find that every time you check a board like this with your air/AK/AQ type stuff that your opponent is betting/overbetting, then it's def going to be good to adjust to checking your value as well. thoughts?

hokiegreg's picture
feel like im get pwned by

feel like im get pwned by some of the smarter regs with low pfr, they are mixing up their limping range to inc some strong hands which makes me tighten up my shoving over limps, and since i basically never have an ace in my range when i ck behind im gettin beat out of every pot that flops ace high. i half feel like all the free looks im gettin at flops is benefit enoough against these ppl who are actually over adjusting to my percieved agressiveness (like there are a few with pfr just under 50% who do ok against me and its tilting the fuck out of me because i just hate to think anyone that does that has an edge), but there are definately ways to take advantage of therse people that im not clued on.you are looking at all of this with a 'glass-half-empty' mindset. yes, their adjustments will put you in some difficult spots like AXX boards in limped pots, but consider this:1) by having a low pfr, they are folding too many buttons and pretty much folding away EV from the sb by not raising you often enough. it's going to be pretty damn tough for us to have a +ev advantage vs most decent players oop if they are raising a decent amount of their buttons. yes, the times we flat it's going to be tough to proceed bc their range is strong, but they keep folding us -0.5bb over and over when they fold their sb. thanks villain!2) when villain limps strong hands it makes his preflop raising range weaker. thanks villain!3) when villain limps anything, it gives all the hands in our range that would have otherwise folded to a preflop raise free equity to see a flop. thanks villain! (yes, we will get pretty owned on AXX boards, but so what? he gave our 82o that plays like shit on AK3 free equity to possibly hit a decent flop.) don't worry so much about raising limps for fold equity. villain is doing you a favor when he limps typically. free equity is the nuts.

hokiegreg's picture
**i meant to say on that 987

**i meant to say on that 987 board, we would be c/r, c/c, or c/f....prob not a ton of hands in 3betting range that would just c/c that flop tho

chadders0's picture
I like the stuff about the

I like the stuff about the c/c donkin turn, i think good spots to do it would be ones where we expect to be barreled less on avg, would you considering doing this with weaker hands like J8 in the q83q example.your attempt at dropping a knowledge game was pretty good, a little on the theoretical side, but the concept of having no cbet range being optimal is pretty tastey food for thought.figured i may be getting all the benefits i already need with villain limping, didnt really clock that if he is limping strong hands to balance then his raising range will take a hit so i can potentially shove same 3b range as i would to a 70% opener if i thought villain was balancing his hands in a paticular way.  

 

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chadders0's picture
u think it's worth buying sng

u think it's worth buying sng wizard for $99?

 

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hokiegreg's picture
i really am not that familiar

i really am not that familiar with sng wizard.

chadders0's picture
whats ur thoughts on putting

whats ur thoughts on putting up fights on paired boards?

 

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chadders0's picture
you smart with investing,

you smart with investing, what assets have value that is impervious to a market crash? (bonds?)

 

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coffeeyay's picture
I was always told utilities

I was always told utilities (electricity, gas, etc), commodities (oil, natural gas, etc) + non-durable goods (tobacco was a good one due to addiction). But I'm not an expert.

chadders0's picture
cool, a month before the

cool, a month before the crash i will just buy $15k worth of tobacco, ez game

 

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hokiegreg's picture
whats ur thoughts on putting

whats ur thoughts on putting up fights on paired boards?it depends. a lot.the average player cbets/stabs paired boards really wide. due to the board texture, it is hard for them to have a whole lot of value combos in a wide betting range. so this means they have lots of air, so c/r should be really good. the problem is, if you c/r them a lot, a lot of players will either: a) shut down their betting range on these boards a bit, or b) play back a lot more frequently. so just keep in mind that while he cant have lots of value combos, neither can you on most boards. pay attention to gameflow and his frequencies. against a wide cbettor, with not much history of c/r a JJ6 flop wide - c/r with anything that has equity on the turn is going to be +ev...78/Q9/backdoor fd type stuff.when you find the occasional thinking player who is a huge hero when played back at on a paired board, start c/r a lot of your 7X on QQ7, 9X on KK9 etc...lots of guys spaz so hard here. i am not smart with investing. sorry :)

chadders0's picture
any thougts on the hands in

any thougts on the hands in post 109 and 110think i will be taking read only btw next month with the intention of absorbing as much as poss from this months thread and others then coming back in later months when im stocked with new shit that i dont understand as much as i want to

 

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hokiegreg's picture
25bb deep  flop comes 789,

25bb deep flop comes 789, face a cbet of 40, plan with j6 and q6, im just curious as to whether the jack kicker was slow us down as its potential as a live card is reduced from a jack putting a 4 card straight on there.q6 i c/ship readless  or donk/3b j6 im not sure whether to donk or c/r, i think a donk/fold and barrel is better because i think out equity vs his gii range if we c/ship isnt ever that great but not fan of c/r folding either.thoughts?eh, i REALLY don't like check/shoving as standard. i mean, it's ok if your opponent is raising wide pre (like 80%+) AND cbetting this super-connected board really wide. the average player, especially at short eff stx where this hits our perceived oop range, does not cbet these boards wide enough for a check/shove to be good. the average player also doesn't raise that wide pre, maybe 60%? those 2 things considered, the range that we are check/shoving into we aren't doing that well against. we have some equity, but there has to be a better option.i don't even like donking, as they have a ton of hands that can continue and i still dont think that you are doing very well as a donk/3bet.i really prefer check/call at these stacks. you have good equity, people dont cbet that wide, and they especially don't barrel these boards that wide. just c/c and reevaluate.imo as your standard in this spot: c/c>>>donk>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>check/jam>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>small c/r also a4753, to barrel or not to barrel? (ip as pfr), im torn between the board gettin horrible for any 7 and our percieved range being polarised (do you think we get credit for thin vbet of ace with river ship)no, i dont think you get credit. most villains put make the typical mistake of putting themselves in your position when trying to figure out what you have - your average opponent would def not vbet thin on this board. so i think they discount thin value from your range a lot, if they are thinking on that level, and are more likely to hero.a lot of our opponents arent even thinking on that level though. if we are jamming 280 into a pot of 300 on this board it needs to work 280/580 or about 48% of the time. so you need 48% of their range to be folding the river at minimum. considering how many 2 pair and straight combos have gotten there, i dont think you can come up with 48% of villains range that will fold here. we can't just consider "do we fold out 7X", we need 7X and other hands we fold out to make up >48% of range.read-only sounds good. this thread was sick this month imo. really good stuff, thanks for putting so much effort into it.

hokiegreg's picture
^^^if we are donking in this

^^^if we are donking in this spot, i'd like it to be with hands that donk/fold but barrel well, or hands that donk/3bet well.

hokiegreg's picture
25bb deep minr j8o, face

25bb deepminr j8o, face c/minr to my 1/2pot cbet on T83 (rainbow), opponent open shoves turn 7. (270 into 240)what's your genereal strategy when facing c/raises in the early stages of a husng with medium strength hands, i guess 2n pair hands are the one im debating whether to put up a fight with and also paired boards, will you ever take a min3b bluff line as standard on certain boards?call/reevaluate usually. against a small c/r, you are getting good odds to see turn and a lot of villains just give up bluffs at this point (enough to justify calling with equity imo). if you find you are getting c/r a ton, start checking back these showdown value hands like 2nd/3rd pair and A/K high and marginal draws. polarize your cbetting range between hands that face a c/r well, and hands that fold to a c/r easily. would definitely make a small 3bet on certain boards, but it's going to be with specific reads it's absolutely never my standard in any spot, even if i'm a little skeptical. i acquire info through the natural progression of the game: showdowns and frequencies - and adjust from there.there are going to be times when you get c/r bluffed early in a game a few times by an unknown and, if you are playing well, there is nothing you can do about it if you don't have a hand. our wide cbet range of 80-90%ish is exploitable, villain could actually c/r it with atc and show a profit (bc we have a wide pfr too) - BUT these frequencies exploit the average player, and that is what we are most concerned with when we are readless.

chadders0's picture
thread has been super helpful

thread has been super helpful this month, def worth the money, im sure that you already know how pro a teacher you are but just another +1 from me if you didnt already. everything explained very well and the fact you consistently just brought extra variable into the equation made it a lot easier to understand the precise reasoning behind every strategy. Be ready for november though, im gonna do my best to find a question or concept  that is subject to a ridic amount of variable and debate and make you define some new optimal strategy.

 

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hokiegreg's picture
thanks, i really appreciate

thanks, i really appreciate that. feel free to bump the fasttrack thread on 2p2 with a coaching recommendation for me! :)

chadders0's picture
last couple for you questions

last couple for you questions if thats ok since i think we only started on 4th next monthin spots that are good to double barrel and you have draws would you consider betting more than you would with your air range, in STs with short eff stacks there are sometimne spots where u have to bet fold the turn, im trying to weigh the merits of establishing no fold equity in a spot where bet/calling your standard sizing would be only a small error (eg weak FD or SD on turns) also re donks in limps pots oop, what would you do in some of these spots with A/k high and with no SD value, also is there much change in strategy if we are 15bb eff instead of 25bb eff (giving in genereal 15bb play advocates limping a wider range), short answers fine (in form of donk/not donk and where to give up)KT3 Q 7A94 J JK87 T 3J46 K 4T72 Q 9 also are there ever spots that we should bet/check/bet oop with air, we didnt even discuss that possibility.  

 

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chadders0's picture
ok so first one for the new

ok so first one for the new month how do you feel about making moves with sub par hands in limp called pots, for ex i limp call j8o around 17bb (a 3x), the flop comes KT7 rainbow and i face a half pot cbet - what's my plan...anything you can give me about playing marginal value hands or draws in limp called pots would be appreciated. Am finally a fully fledged 100s reg (with a lil 200 now and then) thanks to my PB $20k month (hifive hifive), so hopefully some of the opponents i face will be making me think a lot more and make this the best thread ever.also i guess i still wouldnt mind hearing some about the thoughts on barrreling from that prev post of mine, dont expect you to answer every scenraio obv, jst double checking some spots im unsure about and wondering if u think there is any noticable inflexion points in effective stack size where certain ranges cant be folded out (for ex never folding 7T on KT4 14bb deep, but 25bb we have a decent chance) 

 

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chadders0's picture
so iv come to the conclusion

so iv come to the conclusion that everyone should be 3bet bluffed - i think my sort of abc 4 table grind mode wasn't really working for me when i moved up past the 100s, and one of the things i noticed was i wasn't making anywhere near as much money with my 3b shove range 25bb deep, mainly because the avg reg population is just never calling too wide in those spots (and they make up like half of the volume when everyone is just dashing for lobbies). So then i go to making non all in 3bets with a bunch of those value hands and lo and behold i still get some folds from the 40-60% openers (not exactly a knowledge bomb) and cbet success %, even for 2/5 pot bet, was pretty high.So I'm kind of toying with the idea that it is, at least at 100s and above,optimal to have a NAI 3b bluff range readless. My genereal thoughts being that the avg population tends to play nowhere close to optimally in those spots and in genereal there are some boards that we will be picking up the pot close to 100% of the time on. I also kind of a click moment where i thought that depsite people having a low open %, the regs open range will almost never be just the top x%, which has a great impact on if we decide to 3b bluff, i mean not that iv done the math, but a 50% open freq that is made up of 25% top of range and polraised with the 50-75% region of hands ordered in strength, is going to be just as weak as a 75% open range or there abouts?So my thoughts are that if i have a pre defined 3b bluff freq than i can just dictate that by picking a range of hands to be default 3b bluffs as, and this range is what im looking to discuss, cos if im right and i pick the right default 3b bluff range then maybe we can be printing some $$$This is just a compilation of randoms thoughts that i will address again later, but for now lunch...

 

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hokiegreg's picture
will respond in more detail

will respond in more detail later, but i definitely agree you should have a non-ai 3bet bluffing range vs the average REG.definitely no 3bet bluffing range as a standard vs a random though - preflop raise % too low, fold to 3bet too low, ranges dont respond how we want them to for a bluff to work.

chadders0's picture
so then where do we draw the

so then where do we draw the line for what we classify as a reg, because there is definately a big player base outside of recognisable names that are relatively competent in husngsfwiw im thinking only a small % standard 3b bluff, i can just imagine there are a few hands where would be drmatically increase our expected bb/hand if we 3b a standard, may be able to prove this with looking at instances of NAI3b's for value that didnt go to showdown vs avg pop...again will get back to ya

 

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hokiegreg's picture
depends on the population

depends on the population tendancy of the typical unknown player around your buyin level. ignore the fact that this is good vs regs, what do u think the average sb pfr % and fold to 3bet % is for all other players?if the sb pfr is >65%, and the fold to 3bet is >60%ish...then i think you can start considering having some 3bet bluffs in there. otherwise, i think it's highly unlikely to be maxEV for any hand's expectation.

chadders0's picture
i dunno, maybe we should

i dunno, maybe we should fight to the death about this one, what you think? i think as  far as pfr goes avg pop is in the 50-60% region, but unfortunately 50% is a masssssssssssssive diff from 60% as far as optimal nai3b bluffs go, as far as ft3b% goes i dont think we need anywhere near close to 60% given that we need it to get a fold like 35% of the time for 0chip ev and this is likely more than we will get by flattin said hand, that combined with the relatively high fold to cbet % we expect to recieve from avg pops will prob make it significantly more better than a flat ( for hands like q5o say).now to eat chilli, yes it is 2 am, but chilli has just been made. so it's time! edit:(no sure if that 35% fold thing is right, a lil drunk right now and cant do the math right)

 

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hokiegreg's picture
fwd question the Mers-only

fwd question the Mers-only thread imo. i know he has said in the past he wouldnt have a 3bet non-ai bluffing range readless vs an unknown, but maybe he's changed his mind or can give u a better explanation.

chadders0's picture
ok so still on the think

ok so still on the think aloud train here, but i went into pt3 and checked the my success % rate for nai3b, then i realised this was pointless because the bluff part of the nai3b was likely 3b with reads to justify it so its a biased sample...so i took all my value hands that i would 3b nai3b regardless of opponent type (tbh tho this is still al a little biased since with my Ax hands i make nai3b as standard against semi competent people who def wont just call it off and 3bs otherwise/readless)so this is effectively my instances of readless nai3bs, with the sample a lil swayed to competent opponents (will run results without Ax to see diff); with 99+, AT+, KJ+, i have a nai3b% success rate of 56%, so not too far off our required 60%, and i imagine cbet % success rate is pretty high in 3b pots to make up for this. I think this coule be improved on, taking hands that are exclusively nai3b readless (so prob JJ-AA, KQ) and combine some samples to come up with a 3bsuccess% and a cbet success % in 3bpot, the numbers from these over any sample will probably conclusively prove whether a readless 3b bluff is profitable

 

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chadders0's picture
just saw repost to mers, will

just saw repost to mers, will do 

 

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chadders0's picture
ok so first one for the new

ok so first one for the new month how do you feel about making moves with sub par hands in limp called pots, for ex i limp call j8o around 17bb (a 3x), the flop comes KT7 rainbow and i face a half pot cbet - what's my plan...anything you can give me about playing marginal value hands or draws in limp called pots would be appreciated. Am finally a fully fledged 100s reg (with a lil 200 now and then) thanks to my PB $20k month (hifive hifive), so hopefully some of the opponents i face will be making me think a lot more and make this the best thread ever.also i guess i still wouldnt mind hearing some about the thoughts on barrreling from that prev post of mine, dont expect you to answer every scenraio obv, jst double checking some spots im unsure about and wondering if u think there is any noticable inflexion points in effective stack size where certain ranges cant be folded out (for ex never folding 7T on KT4 14bb deep, but 25bb we have a decent chance) bump just incase it gets missed behind the nai3b chat

 

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hokiegreg's picture
going to let Mers respond

going to let Mers respond before i continue with the nai3b discussion. ok so first one for the new month how do you feel about making moves with sub par hands in limp called pots, for ex i limp call j8o around 17bb (a 3x), the flop comes KT7 rainbow and i face a half pot cbet - what's my plan...anything you can give me about playing marginal value hands or draws in limp called pots would be appreciated.meh, i hate it. the average range that is 3x'ing us at this stack depth just crushes this board. there's way too many combinations that are continuing vs us, even if we have some fold equity. we are pretty far behind any range that will continue vs a range here. also, even if we did get raised by something that missed like A7 or trash...it's just not a flop that people cbet their air much on since it destroys our limp/calling range (or if they aren't thinking on that level, it's just a scary board!).just remember, you didn't limp/call because making moves postflop was profitable. you limp/called bc you realize equity vs the typical limp/raising range for calling to be better than folding.that doesn't mean that we shouldn't make moves, but just reminding you that it's not necessary for your limp/call to still be more than ok. if you have great reads on your opponent and for some reason u think he does have a lot of air in cbet range and will play pretty fit/fold on turn...flatting and stabbing when checked to on the turn is going to be best. but damn, that is so rarely going to come up, haha.

chadders0's picture
yeh im on board with that so

yeh im on board with thatso lets take T73 flop in the same situation, we're def not just giving up in this spot i assume, shove over cbet?

 

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hokiegreg's picture
ya, definitely different. def

ya, definitely different. def shipppp

chadders0's picture
PokerStars Game #70203823742:

PokerStars Game #70203823742: Tournament #466031018, $58.74+$1.26 USD Hold'em No Limit - Match Round I, Level I (10/20) - 2011/11/08 1:51:21 WET [2011/11/07 20:51:21 ET]Table '466031018 1' 2-max Seat #2 is the buttonSeat 1: Gayfishing (540 in chips)Seat 2: chadders0 (460 in chips)chadders0: posts small blind 10Gayfishing: posts big blind 20*** HOLE CARDS ***Dealt to chadders0 [9d 9c]chadders0: raises 20 to 40Gayfishing: calls 20*** FLOP *** [Tc 4h 3s]Gayfishing: checkschadders0: bets 40Gayfishing: calls 40*** TURN *** [Tc 4h 3s] [4c]Gayfishing: checkschadders0: bets 60Gayfishing: calls 60*** RIVER *** [Tc 4h 3s 4c] [8d]Gayfishing: bets 140chadders0:?vs unknown with what seemed an aggro dynamic even tho we were 10 hands in, torn between the fact he reps nothing and my line looks weak vs the standard c/c c/c donk is  a strong line, thoughts?

 

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Ph33roX's picture
I'm not sure about the turn

I'm not sure about the turn bet, but I guess you're mostly intrested In the river decision. I think in this spot, what happend in the first 10 hands is going to matter TONS when we try to estimate the % of bluffs in his range, it's not a very common bluffing line and we need to add in some spew factor to the equation before we can call. I think we run into 4x a lot here, readless I think we have to fold, but you don't have to add in a ton of those spewy hands before we can call because we only need to be good 25% of the time.Ship me the full HH on Skype if you want and I'll try to milk as much info as possible from the first 10 hands, should be a good practice 

chadders0's picture
1, villain open folds 2, i

1, villain open folds2, i minr, villain 3b shoves3, third i flat KJ, both ck AQQ, i c/c half pot turn on 9 (which i kinda hate, shoulda folded), and ck/fold blank river to half pot bet4, i open fold5, he minraises, i 3bet to 80 and take it down with just under half cbet on a246, i minr, villain 3b shoves7, villain minr, i 3b shove8, i minr, villain folds9, villain open shoves, i foldthen we have the hand in question, always wonder how much weight i can put in preflop aggro tendancies in terms of given some indication to postflop tendancies. Def wanna hear if my turn bet with the 99 is bad, dont ever epect to see a ten in his c/c range given his play so far, and if his range is 3x, 4x, some draws we def have to bet imo and the underbet will get some calls from 3's (at least that what i was going, kinda took note of that hand in ur thread where hokie said he expected ppl to play straight forward to an underbet with a weak range or something like that). In hindsight there is potentially value in cking turn to pick up river bluff from this guy, but no concrete reads to justify 

 

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Ph33roX's picture
I didn't say turn bet is bad,

I didn't say turn bet is bad, I said I wasn't sure, I'm actually curious to see Hokie's input on this.Regrading correlation between preflop frequencies and postflop frequencies, I think it's pretty high, It's pretty rare that someone is aggro pre and then passive post or vice versa. The first 9 hands should def make us more inclined to call than if it were the first hand.he 3bet shoved 2 out of 3 vs our minraise, if we give him a range of A2s+ A6o+ 22+ KQo (17.9% of hands) it's not very likely that we get shipped on 2 out of 3 times, meaning there's a good chance his 3bet range is wider than that, hence he's more agressive than the average player. He also raised 4/5 times (1 of the raises was an openshove, which requires a tighter range) and this is further evidance of his preflop aggressoin being higher than average.  I def think it's better to assume this guy is agressive than to have no assumptions at all at this point.I think the AQQ9 board is also important because he didn't tell a coherent story there when he checked back the flop and then bet twice. He's was very likely doing one of two things:1. bluffing2. slowplaying the flopif you think it through, both plays have something in common. They are what I call "dishonest" plays, meaning the hand wasn't played for it's value (betting/raising when strong and checking/folding when weak), and was instead played in a deceptive manner.if we think about the hand you posted, we get to the same conclusion, that villian was either slowplaying the turn with 4x or bluffing the river with air, and that's a "dishonest" play showing up again.there are 3 possibilites:1. he slowplayed twice.2. he slowplayed once and bluffed once.3. he bluffed twice. note that 2 out of 3 of those possibilites include villian bluffing. Also note that having trips 2 out of 2 times on a paired board is hard. if we add in the high preflop frequencies, I think there's def enough here to assume villian has some bluff instict in him, and thus his "spew factor" has to be given more weight when analyzing the hand you posted. 

chadders0's picture
No Limit Holdem Tournament •

No Limit Holdem Tournament • 2 Players$58.74+$1.26 Hand converted by the official HUSNG.com hand converter SBkingkong_158660  BBHero340  Effective Stacks: 11bb Blinds 15/30 Pre-Flop (45, 2 players) Hero is BB kingkong_158 raises to 60, Hero calls 30 Flop (120, 2 players) Hero checks, kingkong_158 bets 60, Hero raises? Villain was opening 39% up to this point and i was kind of shooting in the dark as to whether to flat/3bet or fold, ended up thinking it was strong enough tto flat but wondering what your flat cutoff range is here for Kx, im guessin suited we can go down to 4, offsuit 6 or 7.thoughts on extracting value postflop would be nice too.

 

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hokiegreg's picture
99: you only need to be right

99: you only need to be right 25% on the river. i expect to see 4X or nothing here basically. TX makes no sense at all - like who c/c TX on this flop and turn and then leads out that big on the river? hard to imagine. plenty of missed draws make sense...seems like a snap to me.i like the turn bet/sizing to get value from draws/A high. small sizing will get called wide and doesn't encourage any spaz really imo. no free equity etc. if it's not getting called by worse much i'd just check, but i def think it does.3rd hand: definitely 3bet KJ prei wouldn't expect him to be a big nit post based off what you've seen from him pre so far, but considering you have no showdowns to look at and a small sample...i wouldn't put a ton of weight into it. basically, if i'm in a close spot post...i'd lean towards whatever the best option is vs someone that is a bit spewy based on what you saw pre. not making any huge adjustments bc of it postflop though.K5s: your ranges look ok to me. i'd pay close attention to if you think he is trapping you much pre. that 39% is going to be a much weaker 39% if he is limping his AJ TT KQ type stuff 14 deep etc. would definitely 3bet shove in that case.looks ok as played.i would donkbet the flop vs anyone but a reg, i dont expect villain to cbet this flop wide at all - and probably will flat/continue vs a donkbet with a wider range than they will cbet. i expect a cbet range on this board/stack depth to be very strong. against a thinking player, i would check/shove the flop. anything else is going to be soo face up strong and thinking players will stack off lighter vs a check/shove than anything else.

chadders0's picture
playing a fish with open 21%,

playing a fish with open 21%, limp 74%, limp call 40%, flat 58%, 3bet 8%.suggestions on adjustments to:bluffing oop strategyraising limpsbarreling ip will come back later with one thoughts but playing him still atm obv postflop tendencies matter too, but more interested in the impact these preflop ranges have on postflop play

 

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chadders0's picture
also with the flopped flush,

also with the flopped flush, i really like the idea of donk in that spot with the villain being a 40% opener, but say its like 80%, dont we just do sooooooo badly vs their air in that spot, which will make up like 50% of their range on the flop

 

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hokiegreg's picture
well vs 80% opener we are obv

well vs 80% opener we are obv 3bet shoving pre :)but just for arguments sake, imo the avg player (even one with a wide pfr) just isnt cbetting this board wide at all at short eff stx - so i really dont think you are getting much value from their total air bluffing when you check to them.

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