currrr14: Breaking Down A Villain's Ranges Part III

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currrr14
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Continuing currrr14's series of free videos on breaking down our opponent's ranges, we present part III. This video picks up where part II left off, with currrr14 continuing his review of hands played against the villain whose tendencies he analyzed in part I. There is also one more video in this series, a part IV, that we will be publishing later.

Our last interview subject, currrr14's friend Torg0th, described currrr14 as "a total workaholic", and we can see how true this is with his Spin & Go HUD, a PT4 HUD for the 3-handed lottery prize pool Spin & Go format that we debuted a month ago. currrr14 has been listening to customer feedback for enhancements to the HUD, and although we have already released two updates, currrr14 is not resting and continues to come up with new ways to make the HUD better.

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lovelydonk
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hud

which I could have an update on my coffee hud to have probes etc ... in limp pot stat ....  u r hud is much better than the one we get!

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New CoffeeHUD updates are on

New CoffeeHUD updates are on the way.

But Currrr spent many dozens of hours modifying his CoffeeHUD himself. He started with a base of the CoffeeHUD, as it's much harder to build everything from scratch.

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xkcd
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GTO

How do you what's GTO and what not pre?

Like that J8s hand at 11:24. Did you run some simu to assert that it is indifferent between limp and OS and 13bb depth or is that some educated guess?

I know there are tool for computing GTO strats post, but what about pre flop GTO?

 

RyPac13's picture
RyPac13
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With tools like Will Tipton's

With tools like Will Tipton's 2nd video pack and GTOrangebuilder, you can approximate GTO.

You can even figure out GTO in some spots. If your opponent never donk bets, always uses similar bet sizing, for example, you can figure out actual GTO versus his potential actions (the ones he uses in reality, not the ones he never has used).

But, with most of these situations, it is running GTO simulations on limited variables (IE, only allowing people to check call, check fold, check raise 2.5x or check raise all in).

If you allow all the real variables (different sizes, including stuff like half the stack size CR, donk bets of various sizes, etc.) there is not enough computing power for the situation.

So it's fair to call these situations ~GTO I believe.

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rahold
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Apart from GTO we can use

Apart from GTO we can use villains stats to estimate the EV of limping J8s (with cardrunners ev for instance).

I used these stats:

ISOS (iso shove): 30% -> hero folds

Check -> LD (limp donk) 0% -> LCB (limp continuation bet) 100% -> FvLCB 52% (high card, no flush draw, no straight draw).

Otherwise checking down with estimated ev of 100% of equity.

This gives an EV of 0.5bb.

Shoving J8s and BB doing a Nash call (21%) gives an EV of 0.51bb, so indeed very close as currrr14 pointed out.

However villains call open shove % is much higher. If villain calls our open shove with 37% our EV drops to -0.07bb!

So vs this villain I would definitely limp J8s.