This guy already mindonked into me and folded when I clicked it back.I also tried to pay more attention to my bet sizes, so it's a better pot / stack size here ott.No Limit Holdem Tournament • 2 Players$58.74+$1.26 Hand converted by the official HUSNG.com hand converter BBHero410  SBmarkitomarti590  Effective Stacks: 14bb Blinds 15/30 Pre-Flop (45, 2 players) Hero is BB markitomarti calls 15, Hero raises to 90, markitomarti calls 60   Flop (180, 2 players) Hero bets 90, markitomarti calls 90   Turn (360, 2 players) Hero checks, markitomarti bets 30, Hero goes all-in 230, markitomarti folds   Final Pot: 620 

Ok, so either I'm a complete idiot who's just too stupid to beat these games or I'm doing something terribly wrong:Am I right that this is a 900+ games is a decent enough sample size to say that I'm definitely not a winner in these games ?

Some hands where I made a pot-committing turn bet against opponents who called me down super light, then they donked into me otr and I was pretty sure I was beat. No Limit Holdem Tournament • 2 Players$58.74+$1.26 Hand converted by the official HUSNG.com hand converter BBScumgreen88490  SBHero510  Effective Stacks: 25bb Blinds 10/20 Pre-Flop (30, 2 players) Hero is SB Hero raises to 40, Scumgreen88 calls 20   Flop (80, 2 players) Scumgreen88 checks, Hero bets 60, Scumgreen88 calls 60   Turn (200, 2 players) Scumgreen88 checks, Hero bets 160, Scumgreen88 calls 160   River (520, 2 players) Scumgreen88 goes all-in 230, Hero calls 230   Final Pot: 980 Scumgreen88 shows two pair, Sixes and Fives Hero shows a pair of Tens Scumgreen88 wins 980 ( won +490 ) Hero lost -490   This guy berated me in chat afterwards, calling me a huge fish who can't lay down any hands when I'm "clearly beat".No Limit Holdem Tournament • 2 Players$58.74+$1.26 Hand converted by the official HUSNG.com hand converter  BBPedral19380  SBHero620  Effective Stacks: 13bb Blinds 15/30 Pre-Flop (45, 2 players) Hero is SB Hero raises to 60, Pedral19 calls 30   Flop (120, 2 players) Pedral19 checks, Hero bets 60, Pedral19 calls 60   Turn (240, 2 players) Pedral19 checks, Hero bets 120, Pedral19 calls 120   River (480, 2 players) Pedral19 goes all-in 140, Hero calls 140   Final Pot: 760 Pedral19 shows a straight, Ten to Ace Hero shows two pair, Kings and Sevens Pedral19 wins 760 ( won +380 ) Hero lost -380   Same guy, opened extremely tight, but we're at 9bb:No Limit Holdem Tournament • 2 Players$58.74+$1.26 Hand converted by the official HUSNG.com hand converter  SBPedral19370  BBHero630  Effective Stacks: 9bb Blinds 20/40 Pre-Flop (60, 2 players) Hero is BB Pedral19 goes all-in 370, Hero calls 330   Flop (740, 2 players, 1 all-in)   Turn (740, 2 players, 1 all-in)   River (740, 2 players, 1 all-in)   Final Pot: 740 Pedral19 shows a pair of Kings Hero shows high card Ace Pedral19 wins 740 ( won +370 ) Hero lost -370   Not much history with this guy yet, but he cbet everything otf so far.  No Limit Holdem Tournament • 2 Players$58.74+$1.26 Hand converted by the official HUSNG.com hand converter  BBHero520  SBgombata480  Effective Stacks: 24bb Blinds 10/20 Pre-Flop (30, 2 players) Hero is BB gombata raises to 40, Hero calls 20   Flop (80, 2 players) Hero checks, gombata checks   Turn (80, 2 players) Hero bets 120, gombata raises to 240, Hero goes all-in 480, gombata goes all-in 200   River (1000, 2 players, 2 all-in)   Final Pot: 1000 Hero shows two pair, Queens and Tens gombata shows a straight, Nine to King gombata wins 960 ( won +480 ) Hero lost -480  : Yeah, and this guy already 3bet me a few times before and c/r me like every 2nd flop or so. Didn't give him credit for anything here.No Limit Holdem Tournament • 2 Players$58.74+$1.26 Hand converted by the official HUSNG.com hand converter  SBHero455  BBRizk74545  Effective Stacks: 15bb Blinds 15/30 Pre-Flop (45, 2 players) Hero is SB Hero raises to 60, Rizk74 calls 30   Flop (120, 2 players) Rizk74 checks, Hero bets 60, Rizk74 raises to 338, Hero goes all-in 395, Rizk74 calls 57   Turn (910, 2 players, 1 all-in)   River (910, 2 players, 1 all-in)   Final Pot: 910 Hero shows a pair of Queens Rizk74 shows two pair, Queens and Sevens Rizk74 wins 910 ( won +455 ) Hero lost -455 

I guess claiming fish in a WW game means I really have to read and carefully study that new Jared Tendler book which is sitting right here next to me ...

Well, variance wouldn't be such a big problem if I knew I actually had an edge in these games.I'll read over the other ST threads, carefully study them and also watch the endgame and ST vidoes a 2nd time.

What's the correct adjustment against someone who has almost no flatting range oop, but is 3betting super wide ?Limp/call hands that I'd usually open with and jam wider over his 3bets ?

These two hands were against a super tight nit.Is 99 an openjam or a mr/call at these stack sizes ?No Limit Holdem Tournament • 2 Players$58.74+$1.26 Hand converted by the official HUSNG.com hand converter SBHero515  BBRustam 050485  Effective Stacks: 10bb Blinds 25/50 Pre-Flop (75, 2 players) Hero is SB Hero raises to 100, Rustam 050 calls 50    Flop (200, 2 players) Rustam 050 checks, Hero bets 100, Rustam 050 folds    Final Pot: 300    Is limp/trapping or jamming best here with QQ+ ?No Limit Holdem Tournament • 2 Players$58.74+$1.26 Hand converted by the official HUSNG.com hand converter SBHero760  BBRustam 050240  Effective Stacks: 4bb Blinds 30/60 Pre-Flop (90, 2 players) Hero is SB Hero calls 30, Rustam 050 checks    Flop (120, 2 players) Rustam 050 checks, Hero bets 60, Rustam 050 folds   Final Pot: 180  This guy had ~38% pfr - which hands should I call a jam with when we're a) below 8bb b) below 5bbBtw. what's that program that you used in your Fast Track Special video to make these jamming calculations and where can I get it ?

To see which hands I can call a jam with against a 35% opener at 5bb:Shove Range = 35%Oppenent Hand Range = *Bets in pot before shove = 1.5Shove bets = 4.5Opponent bets to call = 4Opponent Call range = <whatever I want to call with>That's right ?And if "Opponent net bets" is better than -1, then I'm good ?

So for 5bb, against this super, super nitty range ofA,KK-22,KQ-KT,QJ,Kx9x-Kx8xI'm still good with callingA,K,Q,JJ-22,JT-J6,T9-T7,98-97,87,Tx6x,9x6x,8x6xit seems.And for 8bb against a super nitty range ofA,KK-22,KQ-K8,QJ-QT,Kx7x-Kx6xthat same calling ranging is still better of folding it seems.To be better than folding, "Opponent net bets" should be better than -1, right ?  Or better than 0 ?

How much do you use or would you recommend using a HUD for ST's - and what's better, HoldemManager or PT3.  I've been using PT3 for quite a while yet and while it's really cool for normal turbos, I realized that is usually takes a while for PT3 to update the latest hands, so the HUD is often way off unless I have some very decent samplesize with some opponent.And there seems to be no way of only displaying stats from current stack size, which kinda sucks.JDub mentionend this in his thread, that people often have different 3bet percentages at different stack depth, and I think I've been very bad at correctly detecting these in the past - and I also think I didn't pick up on people changing their frequencies as an adjustment to my high opening frequency.

Can I trust the equity adjusted winnings graph in PT3 after 152 / 1182 games ?Lost another 20 buy-ins, but somehow I have the feeling that it was a really great session.  I think I'm finally starting to learn these games and am making some improvements.  Also think I played well today and don't have this "tilt feeling" of "oh damn, that's so much money", etc.Looking at my graph, non-showdown winnings are close to break-even and showdown winnings are -180 BB (equity adjusted +20 BB) / -9k chips (equity adjusted +2k chips).  Equity adjusted +2k chips, so my expectation is +4 buy-ins, that's pretty good for 150 games.Other good news is that overall, after 1182 games, I'm now down $2k overall in STs, however ... I'm now actually running below equity.When I look at my graph, there was a point where I was actually 200 BB / 10k chips above equity at some point - I'm now 100 BB / 5k chips below equity.This may sound strange - but I think I'd feel really horrible if I were down 35 buy-ins and running super hot.I also think that for the most part of these 1182 games, I had close to no edge at all whereas my true ROI is probably somewhere around 1% at the moment.  And with an ROI of only 1%, I really need to expect some sick variance.

This guy was very straightforward and passive.  He folded to most of my cbets, only 3bet-jammed twice so far.  Now I wanted to see whether I can limp & stab at flops.After picking up a double belly buster, is it correct to bet/call, even after this super passive opponent ?No Limit Holdem Tournament • 2 Players$58.74+$1.26 Hand converted by the official HUSNG.com hand converter BBterazaki185  SBHero815  Effective Stacks: 5bb Blinds 20/40 Pre-Flop (60, 2 players) Hero is SB Hero calls 20, terazaki checks   Flop (80, 2 players) terazaki checks, Hero bets 40, terazaki goes all-in 145, Hero calls 105   Turn (370, 2 players, 1 all-in)   River (370, 2 players, 1 all-in)   Final Pot: 370 

This guy has already 3bet me 5/11 times and also attacked my limps before.No Limit Holdem Tournament • 2 Players$58.74+$1.26 Hand converted by the official HUSNG.com hand converter SBHero270  BBgeshgesh730  Effective Stacks: 9bb Blinds 15/30 Pre-Flop (45, 2 players) Hero is SB Hero raises to 60, geshgesh raises to 300, Hero goes all-in 210  

Not much history with this guy yet except that he previously flatted 44, then c/c on a 998 flop and checked turn and river where he made a 4-flush. No Limit Holdem Tournament • 2 Players$58.74+$1.26 Hand converted by the official HUSNG.com hand converter BBU dont know3580  SBHero420  Effective Stacks: 14bb Blinds 15/30 Pre-Flop (45, 2 players) Hero is SB Hero raises to 60, U dont know3 calls 30   Flop (120, 2 players) U dont know3 checks, Hero bets 60, U dont know3 calls 60   Turn (240, 2 players) U dont know3 checks, Hero checks   River (240, 2 players) U dont know3 bets 90, Hero goes all-in 300, U dont know3 calls 210   Final Pot: 840 

Has already been kinda aggro before and he just doesn't rep anything here. No Limit Holdem Tournament • 2 Players$58.74+$1.26 Hand converted by the official HUSNG.com hand converter SBJokerTilt495  BBHero505  Effective Stacks: 12bb Blinds 20/40 Pre-Flop (60, 2 players) Hero is BB JokerTilt calls 20, Hero checks   Flop (80, 2 players) Hero checks, JokerTilt bets 60, Hero calls 60   Turn (200, 2 players) Hero checks, JokerTilt goes all-in 395, Hero calls 395   River (990, 2 players, 1 all-in)   Final Pot: 990 

Yeah, I know I should have openfolded both hands, but whatever - idiots need to live as well, so gotta go feed them. No Limit Holdem Tournament • 2 Players$58.74+$1.26 Hand converted by the official HUSNG.com hand converter SBJeff_Fuba470  BBHero530  Effective Stacks: 24bb Blinds 10/20 Pre-Flop (30, 2 players) Hero is BB Jeff_Fuba raises to 40, Hero calls 20    Flop (80, 2 players) Hero checks, Jeff_Fuba checks    Turn (80, 2 players) Hero bets 60, Jeff_Fuba calls 60    River (200, 2 players) Hero bets 100, Jeff_Fuba goes all-in 370, Hero folds    Final Pot: 670 I finally understand my fish buddies who say it's a huge leak to ever bet this turn card.Should have just called otr, as I threw away that buy-ins anyways next hand. No Limit Holdem Tournament • 2 Players$58.74+$1.26 Hand converted by the official HUSNG.com hand converter    BBJeff_Fuba690  SBHero310  Effective Stacks: 16bb Blinds 10/20 Pre-Flop (30, 2 players) Hero is SB Hero raises to 40, Jeff_Fuba raises to 90, Hero goes all-in 310, Jeff_Fuba calls 220     Flop (620, 2 players, 1 all-in)    Turn (620, 2 players, 1 all-in)    River (620, 2 players, 1 all-in)    Final Pot: 620

Never really thought that much about donking, tbh. - always considered that something that only fish would do, like "oh I hit a pair, I bet".But recently, I ran into this problem a lot that - even people who previously cbet a ton - suddenly checked back on drawy boards, then some overcard / draw hit ott and I had no idea what to do.  Didn't want to risk giving them another free card by checking, but leading and getting raised would also suck badly.I'm glad you showed me a creative new way of playing these boards :-)Also finally started reading that new book from Jared Tendler, it's really time for me to work on my mental game.One thing I already learned is not to auto-label opponents "fish" too quickly - but rather examine closely why they are fish and how to maximally exploit their fishy tendencies.

I've recently come across a ton of opponents who 3x or even 4-5x some or all of their buttons.  What's the proper way of adjusting to that ?I already started by making a read about which hand they did it with and proceed very cautiously until I know they'll do it weak.And how about people who all of a sudden limp their button - and we have a hand that we would have jammed over a minraise with - for instance ATs or a small PP.  I think the small PP's are probably still a jam - but would you rather raise ATs to 3-4bb or just jam ?

Just watched some of the older SuperTurbo videos from Cog Dissonance, and in one of them he talks about using the Chubokov ranges to jam when below 12bb against an unknown.Is this something you would still recommend doing at these stack sizes against an unknown (well, in theory our opponent shouldn't be "unknown" anymore at these stack sizes) or better use a standard minraise/calling, minraise/folding range till we get to ~8bb ?When deciding whether to call a shove for 8-12bb, can I just use the Nash calling charts and add 1-3bb, depending on how loose my opponent is jamming ?

Is this a good spot to do it ?No Limit Holdem Tournament • 2 Players$58.74+$1.26 Hand converted by the official HUSNG.com hand converter BBHero360  SByoulierrr640  Effective Stacks: 12bb Blinds 15/30 Pre-Flop (45, 2 players) Hero is BB youlierrr calls 15, Hero checks   Flop (60, 2 players) Hero bets 45, youlierrr calls 45   Turn (150, 2 players) Hero bets 120, youlierrr calls 120   River (390, 2 players) Hero goes all-in 165, youlierrr calls 165   Final Pot: 720 

Ok, this is it - I'm finally giving up.  Already should have done so last Monday, but neither wanted to give up so easily nor admit that renewing Fast Track for July was indeed the worst mistake that I've ever done in my entire poker career - until I really have to.Chadders, if you can still read this, I intentionally donked off these few buy-ins to you, was actually quite a lot of fun to play you and I'm impressed how well you read me.  Just didn't want to end it by only losing to fish buy also give something back to the community.  Well, PT3 says I'm down ~$280 on you and Jack The Shipper together, so not even that much.For me, this is it, I'm done.  I'm that big fish again that I've always been and always will be.  Everything in between was just pure gambling luck, nothing else.

So here I am again, back to where everything started. For a few weeks, I had a dream. I played $60 and $100 Turbos on Stars for a couple of weeks. From mid-May till end of June, I played 1940 of these in total with an ROI of 3.6% and a bit over $5k total winnings, without rakeback. I felt like I was crushing these games really hard and had a decent edge on my opponents. My biggest success during this time was that my bankroll reached a lifetime high of a bit over $10k. But then, Stars introduced these Hyper Turbos and from one moment to the next, action at $100 dropped significantly – it simply felt like all fish had just disappeared from the face of the earth and gone into this new format. The next couple of days, if often took half an hour or even longer to even get a lobby, then another 15 minutes to get a game. Sure, sometimes I got lucky and some huge fish rematched me over and over and over again – but this was really rare.  So I had to make a tough decision – should I stick to the game that I had learned and where I was a decent winner, hoping that fish would eventually come back, while playing other regs in the meantime – or learn the new format. These first couple of days, I talked to a few other regs and a lot of them felt just like me, that this new format was absolutely killing the games and destroying their only source of income. Well, now it’s three weeks later and it pretty much looks like the normal Turbos are still running and it’s still possible to get at least some action in them. At about the same time, Mersenneary announced that he’ll run his Fast Track program for the last time in July and quit after that. I was a student right from the start, but never really made full use of it. Most of the other students played Super Turbos on Full Tilt which I wasn’t really that interested in. I even skipped the group coaching in June ‘cause it was ST only, but got a private sweat session instead which was really cool. But these articles that Mers posted each weak were really great and pure gold. With all this information and strategy about SuperTurbos available in FastTrack, I decided to give the new format a try and see how it goes. A terrible mistake, which did not only cost me a lot of money, but also completely destroyed all my confidence. Initial Preparations To prepare myself for this new format, I watched all the Super Turbo videos that are available to husng.com premium subscribers, especially that introduction series from Cog Dissonance and Mersenneary’s End Game and Fast Track Special videos to learn about the math aspects of the game. Then I read Mersenneary’s latest Fast Track articles, like Jamming Expectation 25bb deep and Readless Ranges, then watched the math videos a 2nd time, just to make sure I understood everything. And then, I jumped into the water … and got eaten alive by fish since I wasn’t even closely prepared to it. What I did learn Mers is really great about all the math aspects of the game, so I learned which hands I could profitably jam at different stack depths – or call a shove with. How my hand plays mathematically against different ranges, all that kind of stuff. I learned that I need to pay close attention to people’s button opening tendencies and adjust my ranges accordingly. What I did not learn Unfortunately, nobody ever told me what I really have to expect in this format or even warned me of the dangerous and destructive parts of this game. And while I understood a few concepts from a theoretical point of view, I still had to learn what this actually means in real life. ·         You can expect to have an ROI of 1-2% in these games Ok cool – not really that much – but with the higher volume that you can easily get in, you should still make some decent money. But wait, what does having a 1-2% ROI in a game where so many hands are jammed pre-flop really mean ? Well, it essentially means that if you make one single mistake once every 50 games – for instance make a mistake about someone’s jamming range – that’ll turn you from a good winning regular into a donkey. If you play your A game for two hours fully concentrated, then don’t pay attention for 5 seconds – that already makes it a losing session and you just played two hours as a donkey, having no edge against fish. In a normal Turbo, situations where you’re playing for full stacks don’t happen that often – and when they do happen, you usually have at least some kind of idea about your opponent’s tendencies, so it’s not like you have to completely guess based on population tendencies. And even when this does happen, these situations are so rare that they don’t really affect your winrate that much. ·         Readless ranges While these work great against the general population, this may not be true about that particular opponent that’s currently sitting at the other side of the table. And it may take a few games until you get a somewhat accurate read about that person. For instance, take A9s on the button. In a Turbo, that’s a hand that you’ll make some decent profit with and that’s also easy to play. Here, you get 3bet jammed on first hand of the match and you have no idea whether your hand is good or not. All you can do is go by population tendencies and say this is a profitable call. Yes, it may be a profitable call in the long run – if you play thousands of games – but in the short term what will happen is that you end up donking off several buy-ins against the same fish before you even realize that he’s not jamming that light. See also the comment in the “mental game” section below.   ·         Post-Flop Play Sometimes, the play post-flop is completely different from everything that you were used to in a Turbo.   For instance, consider K9o on a rainbow 9Q2 board, you cbet and get check/raised. In a Turbo, you can just safely fold here readless since 2nd pair usually isn’t in such a great shape when faced with a check/raise. And if your opponent has shown aggressive tendencies before, then you can also flat and reevaluate turn. But in most cases, that’s not a hand that you’ll happily get it in with – when faced with multiple streets of aggression, you can very safely assume that you’re beat unless you’re playing against a complete maniac. In a Super Turbo, you’ll quickly commit a significant portion of your stack, so flatting and reevaluating later isn’t really that great. Most of the time, you’re pot committed when flatting a check/raise. Fish also check/minraise you quite often. When this happens – pot is 4bb otf, you cbet 2bb and they make it 4b – you’d be faced with a 12bb pot ott with 14-19bb behind. ·         Variance You have to expect swings of 25+ buy-ins on a regular basis. You may lose 25 buy-ins and have no idea whatsoever about your skill. ·         Mental Game This is one of my biggest – if not my biggest – problem in these game. And I absolutely wasn’t prepared for it and had absolutely no idea what to expect. o    You may lose 10 buy-ins or more against the same idiot, getting it in dominated every single time. o    Even if you play mathematically correct and +EV, your opponent may call you “aggressive donkey” in chat. o    You may have losing streaks, where for 50 sessions in a row, you lose money every single time you hit the tables.   If any of this even remotely bothers you, then do not play Super Turbos !!!   Mental Game, what I am and what I am not   After about 1000 games, when I realized my results were really not that great, I also read all the other ST student’s threads – some of them were really great winners in the Full Tilt are – to make sure I understood everything. And I also started to focus more on theory than actual game play. Last week, I played about 4 hours each day and reviewed sessions / learned theory for another 4 hours. And I also started to work on my mental game, read Jared Tender’s new book a 2nd time (already read selected chapters from it right when I got it, but now read it again from cover to cover). Well, the book does say that reading it from conver to cover does not help to really understand all of it, I still am a ”mental game fish” for sure.   Last week, HokieGreg talked a bit about life balance in his thread – and it really opened me the eyes regarding what it takes to really be a full time poker pro.   I am just not that kind of person.   I am just not that kind of person who could ever even come close to what could be called life balance. If and as long as I play poker for a living, poker and how much I win every day, every week, every month will always define who I am and how I feel. There is just no way around it. Maybe my real life friends are right, that I’m just too stupid to play cards and it’s all pure luck anyways. At the moment, I even think that maybe even all my winnings from May and June were just pure luck and now the cards are turning the other way around.   On the other hand, after having played almost 2000 games at $50-$100 and winning in them – am I really still a fish, who’ll never get anywhere ? What about these other guys who sit $100’s day after day and apparently make a ton of money doing so, I can never be one of them ?   That same kind of fish again   Maybe I simply expected too much from the program, way too much – or maybe I’m just not meant to ever make any decent progress whatsoever in poker in my entire life. At the moment, I’m just that big fish again – that same kind of fish that I’ve been in April, or all the months before that. That fish who wins a lot of money one month, then loses it all the next.   However, this time, I was really ambitious to change that, to learn and improve my game and to actually become a winner. If I never joined Fast Track – how would poker have looked for me ? Well, I almost certainly would have posted more on 2+2, posted more hands and talked more about hands. Maybe even posted more hands than I ever did there. There’s just no way of knowing – faith took another path for me.   The only thing I do know for sure is that I would have never ever started to play Super Turbos. I’m not a complete idiot, and I usually don’t just blindly jump into games where I have absolutely no edge in. But here, I got this false, delusional feeling that everything is good – all the math is available to me, there’s a ton of info from other students, some of them who even made a ton of money in these games. JTs made $50k, Chadders made I think $10k, they all learned it, so why not me ? Sure, there’s a ton of variance and I can’t expect to have anything beyond 1% ROI – but I had over 150 buy-ins for the $60’s – should be more than enough money.   What playing Super Turbos really feels like   After playing 1000 games, you realize you’re down $1.5k. But yeah, that’s just “within variance” if your ROI is really only 1%.   After playing 2000 games, you’re down $4k. That’s three weeks where every single time you sit down to play, you lose. And you don’t lose just a little bit. You lose like $500+ each day – and you have absolutely no way of knowing whether that’s just variance, tilt, bad play, or a combination of these. And the last 4 days, your EV line just goes straight down.   What I really would have expected to fully prepare myself for this games.   I really would have wanted to learn about all these negative aspects before jumping into the water.   Something like:   If you play these full time for an entire month, you may be either up $5k or down $5k, but you’ll have no idea whether you actually beat them or not by then.   Or   Don’t play them unless you’re extremely stable and confident in your mental game and you can afford to lose both an entire month of your time and at least 50-100 buy-ins.   Then, I would have decided not to play them.   But all I did know was that I’ll have to face a lot of variance and 20+ buy-in swings. So I kept playing even after dropping $2k – now I’m down $4k (which is about 75-100 buy-ins at $30/$60), feel like the biggest loser of all times and of all irony, it can still be just variance !   To make things worse, I don’t even know what my leaks are and how to fix them.   The End / Giving Up   Well, unfortunately, it’s just just about these $4k (and these 150+ hours that I wasted with these, that are another $2k+ at my old winrate) – I was a decent winner at $60/$100 as I said before, but now my confidence is completely destroyed. I’ve completely destroyed everything I built in June, completely wasting the last 6 months and this could mean the end of my poker career.  

On my way to watch Harry Potter, but had to stop half-way to look at my PT3 stats.Things I've found out so far:

• when I filter for "saw flop", my graph goes up - I do have an edge post-flop it seems
• "Facing All-In: Preflop, Called" - goes up
• "Facing All-In: Preflop" - goes down a lot
• NOT("Facing All-In: Preflop, Folded") - up; adding "All-In" to that, still going up
• NOT("Facing All-In: Preflop, Folded") AND "Facing 3bet Pre-Flop" - break-even
• NOT("Facing All-In: Preflop, Folded") AND NOT("Fold to 3bet Pre-Flop") AND "Facing 3bet Pre-Flop" - up
• Removing all that, just "Call 3 Bet Pre-Flop" - up

Wait, I'm folding myself to death ?

Going to the "Actions" Tab.

• "Pre Flop Raise All-In" - up
• NOT (Pre Flop Raise All-In) - down
• "Raise First In" - up
• "Any Raise Pre-Flop" - up
• "Open Limp" - down down down
• "Call Raise" - up
• "Attempted Steal, Won Without Flop" - up
• "Chance to Steal, Folded" - down

Wait, whenever I took any kind of aggressive action, I made money ????

• "Post BB" - graph looks "wild", goes up and down, but ends at -5k chips after 14k hands
• "Post SB" - went up 26k chips, then straight down till -2k chips
• goes up to 34k chips, then only down to +14k chips if I add "saw flop"
• the BB graph stays about the same if I hadd "saw flop"

Filters:

NOT(Saw Flop)Adding Facing Raise Preflop and Fold OR Facing All-In: Preflop, Folded to that.

That gives me -140k chips in 4494 hands, which feels a lot.Now looking at specific hands.Ok, so it's basically all between -0.50 bb/hand and -1.00 bb/hand.  Biggest loser is 75o, that happened 86 times, followed by 86o (72 times) and Q2o-Q5o, 94o, J5o. 

Same filter, but added 86o to it.  Only looking at this specific hand now.  Hmm, looks like PT3 doesn't have any filter for effective stack size, so I manually need to look at all these 72 hands now.According to Nash, 86o is a call for 4.1bb.Found one.  Effective stacks 255, blinds 15/30, opp mr - is that a 3bet-jam ?Or is it normal / expected to lose that much with these hands ?

Looking at my graph for the $60's, I'm down $4016 in 1649 games - that's 67 buy-ins.Shouldn't my PT3 graph "Hands Played" in "Chips" end somewhere around -500 * 67 = -33k chips ?"Amount Won ($)" - the green line, ends at -$16k chips.  Non-Showdown winnings (red) at -$8k chips, EV adjusted (orange) at -$8k and SD winnings (blue) at -$8k chips.

I'm -0.28 bb/100 with A6o, -0.64 with A2s, -0.15 with K9o, K2o-K5o are all in red, same for Q2o-Q8o.  J9s is -0.37, J9o +0.15, J8s/J8o-J2o all negative.When I add the "Saw Flop" filter, A9s, ATo, A7s, A7o, A6o, A2-A5 all negative.  KTs is negative, KTo positive, K9o red, K2-K5 red, same for Q5-Q8, J9s, J8s, J7o, J6o, T9s, T9o, 98o, 98s.  Some for most of the suited and offsuited connectors and one-gappers.Maybe I'm overplaying these hands ?

So if I can actually trust these PT3 stats, then this basically means that I actually do have an edge post-flop, and also pre-flop with big hands.Like, I'm definitely making money with all Ax, PP's and good broadway hands - both pre- and post-flop.  It is definitely not true that I'm constantly getting it in dominated with these hands ... hmm, if I remember correctly, there was a section about this in Jared Tendler's book ...However, I am definitely just bleeding away chips with weakish hands - both folding them too much pre-flop and losing a ton of money with them post-flop.

Just looked at your "Readless Ranges" article again.Yeah, I do call these hands that you have as "Call" and 3bet-jam these that you have as "3bet-jam", etc.So basically, it's expected to lose money with 75o or 86o - of course, these are just very weak hands - hmm.So does this mean I'm not making enough money with my strong hands to compensate for this ?Just looked at some hands again - still with the "Saw Flop" filter.  And I'm only making 0.5-1.5 bb/100 with my strong but not super strong hands (AT, AJ, KQ, etc.) - and I'm only very marginally profitable with my big broadways.  Most profitable hands are AQs with 2.83, AA with 2.77, AKs with 2.5 and KK with 2.44 - these are actually the only hands that are above 2 bb/100.Is that ok or is it too little ?Worst hands are A2s with -1.72, T5s with -1.23 and J8s/86s/A6o with ~-1 each - these are also the only hands that are below -1 bb/100.

Next problem: facing a limp in the BBI'm down 22k chips in 2257 hands - that's worse than -4 bb/100, omg !!!So I'm doing something terribly wrong here.  And inverting that filter actually makes my graph go up.  I'm completely destroying myself when facing with limps ?  Holy shit !Ok, it looks like I only pushed All-In 30 times and am break-even.Added "Saw Flop" and "Did Not Bet Flop" - going down.  ............Ok, batteries are getting empty - and it's already too late for Harry Potter, going home ....

Back at home, and I found the "missing" chips - it's rake.I'm down $4016 after 1649 games and payed $2077 in rake - so I only lost $1939 = 32 buy-ins =16k chips to my opponents and my graph is right at -16k chips.   To break-even including rake, I'd need to be up 17.3k chips.

Ok, just to make sure I get this right.

Buyins: $58.74 AND Facing All-In: Preflop, Called OR Preflop Raise All-In

That should give me all hands where I'm All-In Pre-Flop, right ?And it's 1200 BB / 82k chips in 4402 hands or or 27 BB/100 - that's actually quite good :-)Inverting this filter gives me -1700 BB / -98k chips in 20k hands, let's just remember this for a moment.Now adding "Saw Flop", for a combined filter of

Buyins: $58.74 AND NOT (Facing All-In: Prefop, Called OR Preflop Raise All-In) AND Saw Flop

So these are all hands that I actually saw a flop with, without already being All-In.That's -52 BB / -6k chips in 6312 hands or -0.8 BB/100 - though the graph once went up to 320 BB / 14k chips.

Filtered for

Buyins: $58.74 AND NOT (Saw Flop)

 It's a really absolutely shocking -430 BB / -16k chips in 15.5k hands or -2.76 BB/100.And I just found a huge leak - that's like a lot worse than openfolding these hands !

Let's see whether this actually adds up somehow:

• Hands that I'm All-In with Pre-Flop: +82k chips
• Hands that I'm not All-in with Pre-Flop: -98k chips

That's -16k chips in total, so that's about right.So let's have a look at all these hands that I did not go All-In with Pre-Flop.

• Hands that I folded Pre-Flop: -16k chips

Ok, that still leaves 82k chips that must have gone lost somehow. 

Ok, filtering for all hands that I raised All-In and my opponent foldes gives me 1200 BB / 1864 hands or 64 BB/100.  Not sure whether that's relevant in any way.

Filtering for

Buyins: $58.74 AND Free Look From Big Blind AND Post Big Blind AND Saw Flop

gives me -320 BB / -20k chips in 1933 hands or -16.6 BB/100 - that's really terrible ! 

Yeah, I do remember that you said that, but then there was like zero action in Turbos and there was this discussion in the Regs thread on 2+2 where I complained about that http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showpost.php?p=27411850&postcount=87193, then a few posts later, Ryan made this comment (not to me specifically) about just becoming a hyper turbo reg http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showpost.php?p=27412196&postcount=87203 making me think oh if it's really that easy then why not.And when I started to post ST hands and asking tons of questions, I felt like it was ok for you.Then I saw some regs that I already knew from Turbos now sitting Hypers and more people on 2+2 posted this "oh yeah just play hypers then" - which made me feel like it's a really trivial jump.  I thought I need to learn about jamming expectation and ranges, which hands I can call a jam with and all that stuff, then expect more variance than I'm used to - but that's about it.And when I asked you on Skype that night whether losing 14 buy-ins after 1k games is within variance, you basically encouraged me to keep playing when you said it is.So there were basically three factors which caused this horrible mess:

• I was completely wrong about me having a strong endgameI thought I had since my experience was that I'm winning money at high blinds, but after I filtered for all hands @ 40/80 and above in my normal Turbos, I realized I was actually running super hot, running over 25 buy-ins above EV.Since I was winning in the $50 and $100 Turbos, I never really looked at my results that closely before I basically started questioning just everything yesterday.
•  I thought I could really easily beat these games.This was simply the feeling I got from everyone, to learn some basic strategy, then just play and win. 
• Since I expected such extreme variance, I also kept playing while my results were extremely poorly.

Overall, I'm even still 100k chips / 1k BB above EV over 100k hands - which makes me even feel more worried that all I've done so far was just pure luck and no skill.Well, maybe I should not think that I "lost $4k in 3 weeks", but that I'm still up $1.5k plus rakeback - and I still have ~$3.5k / 160k FPP's, which is a more than I had two months ago.Unfortunately, I'm now afraid that this HyperTurbo disaster just exposed a huge leak from me, which would have prevented me from ever beating $200+ Turbos anyways.Well, maybe it's not that bad in Turbos since I win enough chips in the early stages of the match.Really frustrating situation.But yeah, let's talk on Skype about this. 

Hey, thanks a lot Hokie :-)I'm also almost done reading through Jared Tendler's new book and now see things a lot more clearer that I ever did before.  Especially liked that chapter about fear - because fear is really what I had a lot in the past.And this entire ST disaster also exposed another huge leak: that I'm basically a complete mental game fishSo yeah, now I see it as a challenge to improve myself and become a much better player.My biggest two problems at the moment are my mental game and my < 25bb play - both need some serious work.  But since I now know that I need to work on these things, I actually have a chance of improving there.