9 posts / 0 new
Last post
AGT89's picture
Pretty interesting Overbet

Its a reg war

Flop is STD as I dont want to get check-raised by draws and stuff, turn it's also STD, obv my plan is to NOT fold any river, but I was shock to see that overbet on an A.

I ended up folding because I only see 8x on his range going for maximum value. Im representing A high so there is not too much sense to be bluffing here, thats why I ended up folding, but still Im not sure...

http://www.boomplayer.com/en/poker-hands/Boom/10638060_1F83B5FC7C

Dipl.Komp.'s picture
it seems villain wants to

it seems villain wants to level you into calling. i think you can only call such a bet when you play vs a bad player at 3,50$ who is on monkey tilt and who has no concept of ranges. and even then it´s very borderline.
 

 

cheers

s.

cdon3822's picture
0.75P turn lead + overbet jam

0.75P turn lead + overbet jam river where he thinks he can rep missed FDs & there are a ton of hands in your range which improved and are curious. 

This is 8x a lot.

AGT89's picture
Yeah I agree, I feel better

Yeah I agree, I feel better now xDD

Hello, when I put my key, and appears a start and I can not change, this is my key Product ID D9AA-6C30-93A3-9985-859D-2896-B3DE-4CF3. What can I do?

raymond1jp's picture
Interesting hand. Let me try

Interesting hand.

Let me try and play the devil's advocate because I don't think the answer is as clear cut as you guys seem to imply. I am micro stakes though, so take it with a grain of salt...

First of all, the 8x is such a small part of BB's defending range. Assuming like a 60% defending range, he is folding quite a lot of 8x combos. (86o and worse, 84s and worse is folding.) This is a huge difference compared to something like Kx and Qx, where he is basically defending all of the combos. 

Second, when hero checks back on flop, from the villian's perspective it is very clear that hero rarely has any 8x. Generally speaking (as in readless), when both players check back on the flop, OOP's checking back range is stronger than IP because OOP needs a check raising range (that has some nutty hands), as well as middle pair/ draw type hands that are more likely to be in the check calling range than a leading/betting range. IP's betting range usually consists of  not only top pair+,  but middle pair, draws, and some k-high, a-high, basically a lot more hands can and are lead for value when in position compared to out of position. So when hero does check back on flop, especially on a wet board, it shows a lot of weakness.

Knowing this, villian can safely assume that hero rarely has any 8x, and I think this is compounded when bet on turn is just called. Villian could probably put hero on 7x, Qx, draws or random high card floats. So while hero's perceived range consists of basically zero 8x, villian's perceived range still consists of plenty of 8x because he could have easily had those trips in the check-raising department on flop, and by betting big on turn, and shoving river, he could still credibly rep 8x.  

Your quote: "Im representing A high so there is not too much sense to be bluffing here", that is exactly why there is merit to bluffing though. He knows you rarely have 8x, and both of you know he has plenty of 8x in his perceived range, so he can play extremely aggressive in future streets with ease, especially when no draws hit. In a sense, he can play any two cards like this when you check back on a wet flop, and be profitable majority of the time. I think good players can realize and exploit these gaps in ranges well, and I think you need to call with your made hand even if sometimes you are actually beat. Just considering BB's preflop ranges, and accounting for card removal when two 8 appear on flop, it is much more unlikely he has an eight. 

So calling at these kind of situations, at least in the long run, I think it is not clearly -ev, and I think it becomes somewhat mandatory as you move up in stakes and players become better.

The counter to this situation/ villian's aggression is to strengthen your check back range in position. (check back your nutty part of your range, in this case trips, a certain percentage of time)

 

cdon3822's picture
The 0.75 P turn lead is a

The 0.75 P turn lead is a pretty big tell of a made hand protecting vs draws building a bigger pot faster for a lot of players.

If you actually think villain is taking this turn lead + overbet line as a bluff too much on this board then we will hapily start checking back stronger holdings.

Until these frequencies present, villain can be given a lot of credit here imo.

Dipl.Komp.'s picture
First of all, the 8x is such

First of all, the 8x is such a small part of BB's defending range.

 

even if: in such a situation it doesn´t matter. the overall frequency of 8x is of no importance in an isolated event. it´s like saying: the probability of your child having a birth defect is 1:1000 (i am making this up), but if your child has one, it hits you 100% of the time. as long as villain is not playing like that over and over on such a board, i am happily folding top two. leveling yourself into calling such bets will kill your roll. you have to assume villain to think like: "i know that he knows that i should know that he should know, that once i consider his and my perceived range in that spot, he has to consider that......" that sort of thinking complicates a fairly simple spot for no reason.

 

 

cheers

s.

AGT89's picture
Can't explain it better...

Can't explain it better...

Hello, when I put my key, and appears a start and I can not change, this is my key Product ID D9AA-6C30-93A3-9985-859D-2896-B3DE-4CF3. What can I do?

AGT89's picture
I agree with cdon on this

I agree with cdon on this last answer.

And about the devil's advocate, I would say 2 things, fisrt of all, I think he actually has more combos of 8x than Kx. As a regular, he is 3bettting me to 90 chips some KJ, KQ type hands for vale, also 3bet shoving AK, QKs and sometimes K5s type hand. He is calling pretty much with all the middling 8x combos, except 84o and lower, and A8. So I wouldnt say he can't have it very often.

Secondly, to call profitable such an overbet you have to be sure what you are doing, if not it can cost you a lot of money, so before having a good read I prefer start by making standars plays or tight folds.

And finally, about my reasoning, usually when Im representing a made/strong range and regular villain is still betting, I just dont see how can they be bluffing, so I end up making hero folds. I think you level yourself and you give too much credit for the opponents to be super experts capables of exploiting me on this level thinking. Until I see a showdown that changes my mind, I think Im on the exact good level thinking, I would not go deeper. At the beggining I suspected this was the right thinking process, but still I was calling and the showdowns was confirming me every single time like 90% "ofc he has it, how can he be bluffing if Im rep strong", but lately Im making hero folds that I think they give me a good edge, and thats how I get my 5% EV ROI playing 70% against wining regulars xD

Hello, when I put my key, and appears a start and I can not change, this is my key Product ID D9AA-6C30-93A3-9985-859D-2896-B3DE-4CF3. What can I do?