You should constantly be adjusting. If you notice your opponent folding the first two buttons, it's more likely they are a tighter open raiser.
If your opponent 3bets you the first two hands, it's more likely they are very aggressive with 3-bets.
Now, the key is to balance this information. Don't over react to the first hand 3-bet or open fold. The main idea will be the larger sample of information that you have, the more reliable the information.
Think about it this way, if you face 50% raise, 50% fold players from the button every single match, every so often you'll get a guy open fold 6 times in a row. That doesn't mean they are super tight, it just means they had some bad hands. So you have to balance the information as best you can, and it will lead to making better decisions long term than your opponent.
If it were easier than that the best players would win more than 53-54% of the time. Even vs bad players, it's not 60% in hypers, but it's still very profitable (the variance and uncertainty is a big reason on why it is so profitable).
You should constantly be adjusting. If you notice your opponent folding the first two buttons, it's more likely they are a tighter open raiser.
If your opponent 3bets you the first two hands, it's more likely they are very aggressive with 3-bets.
Now, the key is to balance this information. Don't over react to the first hand 3-bet or open fold. The main idea will be the larger sample of information that you have, the more reliable the information.
Think about it this way, if you face 50% raise, 50% fold players from the button every single match, every so often you'll get a guy open fold 6 times in a row. That doesn't mean they are super tight, it just means they had some bad hands. So you have to balance the information as best you can, and it will lead to making better decisions long term than your opponent.
If it were easier than that the best players would win more than 53-54% of the time. Even vs bad players, it's not 60% in hypers, but it's still very profitable (the variance and uncertainty is a big reason on why it is so profitable).
Also this may help
http://www.husng.com/content/interpreting-small-sample-sizes-bayesian-es...