Sick, what do I do on river here? Have no history with the guy, this is like maybe 3rd hand of match. Obv my intention was to let him keep betting away and not to force weak random hands out, but then the river bet throws me off track big big big time. Weird. No Limit Holdem Tournament • 2 Players$55.00+$2.50 Hand converted by the official HUSNG.com hand converter SBHero1470 BBGodofCarping1530 Effective Stacks: 74bb Blinds 10/20 Pre-Flop (30, 2 players) Hero is SB Hero raises to 40, GodofCarping raises to 80, Hero calls 40 Flop (160, 2 players) GodofCarping bets 100, Hero calls 100 Turn (360, 2 players) GodofCarping bets 180, Hero calls 180 River (720, 2 players) GodofCarping bets 580, Hero ??????
I think this hand is REALLY close but I'd probably call. For a general reason, if he is triple barreling you this big 3 hands into the match then he is a lot more likely to just be a LAG player than if 20 normal hands had passed without him doing anything super aggressive.For a less general reason, a smart player might think that your line is very likely to be either QX or JX because there is a good chance that KX would raise on the flop or 7X might raise on the turn. Contrastingly, QX is almost never going to raise and a hand like JT flats here more than raising. He needs to win 44.6% with this bet and it could be viewed as profitable depending on how he views the ranges of an unknown in this spot. I think it is probably -EV, but it is partially because I think that the players who call that turn with QX will also call the river with QX sometimes.A fish tends to be a lot less predictable but also tends to have a lot more spew in his range. He could just be completely LAGtarded, or he might just think "flat call = weak" and be trying to get you to fold because he doesn't want to give up a big pot. There are a lot of varieties of fish, but from a player with worse than -10% ROI I wouldn't be shocked at all to see T8o show down when he gets called here.I think that your opponents range should be mostly polarized between AK+ or JX- (there are always some players who are basically brainless button mashers that will fall in the middle though). This hand is pretty much a big guessing game, but I think that against a random unknown it is probably somewhere around neutral or slightly +EV.
Cheers SCW, ya I totally agree with what you say and was very similar to my thought process at the time. As it happens he had 86o, proving the point completely.
These 2xing rr's preflop early in match can be a bit confusing. Since he is 2xing you, you know with 90%+ that he is a fish and can rule out xscwx 1st paragraph. In general early in match its very hard to not call this spot vs fish so i think your play is +EV...but understand the tough spot as these can be big hands...no info..weak read...stand aside sometimes best.