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errorpoker's picture
$1.50 Hyper Turbo - Hard hand to play + His CoffeeHUD stats

What do you guys think that is the best and Max EV play here? I added his CoffeeHUD stats to help analysing this hand. Sorry if it bothers anyone that I have edited my CoffeeHUD a bit to suit my needs better.

Poker Stars $1.44+$0.06 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t10/t20 Blinds - 2 players

Hero (BB): t520 26 BBs
BTN/SB: t480 24 BBs
 
Pre Flop: (t30) Hero is BB with 4d Ts
BTN/SB calls t10, Hero checks
 
Flop: (t40) Tc 2c 2d (2 players)
Hero bets t20, BTN/SB raises to t80, Hero calls t60
 
Turn: (t200) 5c (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN/SB checks
 
River: (t200) 6h (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN/SB bets t100, Hero calls t100
 
Final Pot: t400
Hero mucks 4d Ts
BTN/SB shows 8h Th (two pair, Tens and Deuces)
BTN/SB wins t400
coffeeyay's picture
I'm not leading that flop

I'm not leading that flop because its a board that he will likely cbet a lot, but will fold a lot to a bet. So we get more value from letting him bet it. Once he does bet we will be in a spot where equities will run close btw value raising and calling. We decide where he is more likely to bluff-over a check raise or on later streets? Given that many players are very passive vs cr I don't think we get that much value out of it, but this will be highly villain dependent-read less I'd lean to call.
 
as played we should thin value bet the turn-we still get value from weak pairs, high cards, and clubs, and expect few bluff raises. As played river call is fine, we will likely beat some of his value, he will have lower amounts of nutted hands as he didn't bet turn when checked to for value, and there are still hands that he will be tempted to bluff.