No Limit Holdem Tournament • 2 Players$14.39+$0.61 Hand converted by the official HUSNG.com hand converter SBnoxy991700 BBHero1300 Effective Stacks: 65bb Blinds 10/20 Pre-Flop (30, 2 players) Hero is BB noxy99 raises to 50, Hero raises to 160, noxy99 calls 110 Flop (320, 2 players) Hero bets 200, noxy99 calls 200 Turn (720, 2 players) Only 4th or 5th hand with this villain. He's raised every button, 3b me once to a decent size cbet and took it down. Seems like a thinking player from what I've seen so far. I'm a little confused about what turn line I should take in this spot, pretty short effective stacks with me having 940 here. The thing is on this turn I don't see him folding anything that beats me. I don't really expect him to show up with any 10x in this spot besides ones with a Jh/Qh/Kh, same thing with overpairs. I think looking back it's a pretty good place to c/shove, because I expect him to bet all his 1 heart hands and other random floats here. What do you guys think?
I presume that he would close to 100% protect hes Tx on this board. He might be C/C hands KhTx, KhTx and QhTx. When he calls the flop, hes probably on a draw also. But theres also the chance that he flopped the flush and just want to let you dig youre own grave. Hmm... Tough spot. Im really in doubt what best here. If you bet here, he'll probably come over the top with a better hand. And hes not folding to your showe. So i probably just C/F here. You still have a decent stack left....
I can't ever see C/Fing here as the best play, even vs JhJx we still have 30% equity and I expect that to be one of the top of his range here. It's definitely a spot I'm super confused in though, as the turn card is one of the worst in the deck imo. I don't really expect him to have a flopped flush that often unless it contains the Kh or possibly the Qh, from his perspective the Ah/Kh is probably a huge portion of our range here and I'd expect him to want to get it in on the flop (although I may be giving him my own thought process).
and MAYBE two overs to hes T or 4? I still check the turn and hope he lets me get a free card. He could stil have hands like K7s, A7, 44, 77. Im pretty far from a tight player, but on a board like that, i dont really see him shooting any air on turn.
b/c 470 with this sizing we need 18 % equity to call which we have against 7x. and we also ahve FE from one heart hands
I havent done the math. But what do you meen with, we have FE form one heart hands? We dont want him to flod any one heart hands, since we have Ah.
yea just forget what i wrote about fe
I think your problem is your cbet size. You start with 1300. On flop you have 1140. Pot is 320.You have nutflushdraw+ 2 overcards. You bet 200 with is a bad size for turn eff stacks. You had 940in a 720 pot.Better: 2 ways bet small on flop about 120 or bet big in that case 320. In both ways you have an easy turn.
I usually tend to cbet on the smaller size in this spot, leaving more room to play turns and rivers.This turn is pretty bad for us to barrel on with our hand, and like OP says: hes not folding anything that is ahead of us. However, he may bet with worse hands when checked to. Also, we have about 30%ish equity vs Tx hands if called. With those things in mind I like check shoving this turn.
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Ye, we have about 30% here. But are we good enough, enough times to make a C/S profitable in the long run, on this board?
With 30%ish vs his range, we only need him to fold about 25% of the time for chkshove to show a profit. I dont know if that is true vs this player, If you consider all these hands we are ahead of that may flat with one heart: 89, J9, J8, Q8, Q9, QJ, KJ, QK maybe AJ. And alot of these hands may stab turn when checked to but have to fold to a check shove.
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Can you put up how you do the math? Its a thing i have to get better doing. How does it look if we put K7-KQ with one heart in hes range?
you have nuts FD +2 overs, huge equity vs his range, bet/call flop ..shove turn , i like a 280 cbet on this flop to make your life easyer on the turn...how it played out i like ceck/shove turn in this spot with this stakes sizes
wtf hu ?