I think my line and sizing are good, what do you think?
14 hands: BB VPIP: 57, FtCbet:0, 3bet:0
PF and FLOP: Standard.
Turn: Imo t50 is good, its small chance he is folding 2x to even half pot cbet, and with this sizing I can comfortably shove the river. And with t50 I will get more "value" from A high :D
River: I would check behind but he donks. I dont see nothing worse he would do that with, so I fold. Its probably 7x.
villain is a calling station very hard to bluff he calls 6/10 hands preflop (so far) and never fold to cbet i would be interested in how often he folds to turn cbet (double barrel) before i went and made a double barrel bluff v a calling station
Q3o plays poorly post flop
but villain is not 3 betting us therefore i would assume he wont raise limped pots alot either untill he shows me other wise
i would probably have limp stabbed this hand just to control the pot with my weaker hand i also want to see if i can find a way to get villain to fold on flop sometimes if villain stuill wont fold flops on limp stab pots then i would definately have a folding range so i have a stronger value range to bet and get called with
as played while it is normal to cbet paired boards the villain does not fold to cbets so i would consider a check behind
when villain calls cbets all the time i can get alot more from my value hands and dont need to bluff as much and Q high will be good sometimes so i would check flop v this villain
turn bet is weak i think as played i would normally bet this more to try to represent the jack something like 80 maybe 100 but v this calling station villain again i would probably check
river as played i would call your right it looks like the 7 alot but calling will leave hero with 410 chips behind and if he has the 7 well good for him even a bad player can get lucky and play a hand well. i think he could have alot of other hands too QT Q9 which we chop (he would float with over cards well his stats suggest he would float with all his hands but i dont think thats exactly true he is floating almost all the time) also 9T 8T where villain picked up the gut shot on the turn and decided to donk the river knowing he can't win a showdown
all that said its not a fist pump call (infact i hate it but think i still have to do it) on the river if he shoved i would definitely fold but i think hero can call 120 on river with QQ77J and definitely note what hand villain had but yea its an ugly spot that you got into by double bareel bluffing a calling station
v calling station you need to know what street he will fold so you need to "fold turn to cbet" and "fold river to cbet %" stats if he calls cbet calls turn bet but folds river a decent % then you have no choice but to decide if i cbet i must 3 barrel. if he folds to turn bet alot then you should double barrel him all the time after cbet but without those stats or observations you should be inclined to check back more often and bet all your value hands v a calling station
I agree with all this analysis. Except to say that I would never consider a triple barrell bluff on this board. Qx and Jx will call always, especially if this is a weak opponent, which ftcbet = 0 strongly indicates.
Call river. I expect this to be a blocker bet, rather than a value bet. I expect to see even 2x sometimes.
I like the fold, even if he is kind of calling stations I don't see the pont on making 2 streets double float + donk rive as a bluff, I just think he doesnt have the heart to do it, and looking on the board it's pretty dry, there's no busted draws, so what kind of hand is check-calling twice and donking river, looks like 7x or better Qx like QJ, QK. I like the fold
Hello, when I put my key, and appears a start and I can not change, this is my key Product ID D9AA-6C30-93A3-9985-859D-2896-B3DE-4CF3. What can I do?
Well,
I would not fire a second barrel once Villain has called my Cbet.
I would check turn, and fold on a bet with Q3o. In my view, hand is too weak to go for a 2nd barrel facing this kind of opponent who is likely to have almost...anything
As played, with Villain simply check calling flop and turn, with 120 to add in a pot of 360, I would call river with what is now likely to be the best hand.
If Villain had a 7, good for him...But check call 3 streets with Ax or even low PP is definitely something I have seen often in small stakes these days
Cheers
PokerPuker
HU Hyper Tilter
Yeah you said "check-calling 3 streets with Ace high or small pocket" and it is true but note they are check-calling NOT donk betting river if they think they can win on the showdown.
Hello, when I put my key, and appears a start and I can not change, this is my key Product ID D9AA-6C30-93A3-9985-859D-2896-B3DE-4CF3. What can I do?
Yes.
Now I read what I wrote and it does not make much sense ( I am talking about checking and folding to bet turn as if Hero is BB... )
Sorry...
So with a bit more thinking, I think I would fold most of the times.
Your Cbet is standard on the paired board and does not mean much (particularly if you have Cbet most of your buttons before).
But he calls the second barrel too. which is a bit more worrying, still often possible with an Ax though or a 2x (of course with a 7x too )
But his lead river is not easy to interpret with not much history. Value his 7x ? Value his better Qx ? Bluff missed flush draw with 2 clubs in hand ? no idea.
In doubt, considering the stacks, I would fold.
If he was bluffing, good for him ( if he shows, even better)
You still have enough stack to go on and take note if he does this "river lead" thing again
Cheers
PokerPuker
HU Hyper Tilter
I actually see this quite often. A bad blocker bet.
I don't know sir, this is half pot bed, it smells really bad! xD
Hello, when I put my key, and appears a start and I can not change, this is my key Product ID D9AA-6C30-93A3-9985-859D-2896-B3DE-4CF3. What can I do?
Q3 is ok to raise.
flop bet is ok
on the turn i would give up, especially given that you are already quite short. his flop calling range mostly consists of 7x and Ax, so you are barreling to get him off an Ace. if he had random overcards, the J falls in his range as well, so it´s mostly just burning money.
the river is difficult. you lose against 7x, you beat 2x, Jx and hands like KcTc, which he probably won´t donk though. i´d say it´s mostly 7x that is afraid you check back, so i´d rather lay it down.
that is why i would check back the turn, now you would have an easy call on the river.
cheers
s.