Welcome all, I'm currently playing $110s and like everyone else here I am looking to improve :D After 12-18 months of sitting back and waiting for the results to roll in I have decided it's finally time to get proactive and start putting in some time away from the tables to improve my game. When I think about where I perhaps could have been today and where I actually am I see a pretty big gap. A big part of this has been a putting in a TON of volume at C-game standard. Hopefully this will become the place where I start to get my act together and ideally in a month or two I will be able to cement myself as a 220/330 reg. Tbh I would be quite content to not move much higher, I mean la_gachette anyone?! (He is one of my favs :p) (After mers of course) One of the good things about auto-piloting and playing when tilted though is that leaks are amplified, which makes identifying them easier. In a way I almost believe that you're only as good as your C game, especially if, like me, that's the game you spend most time playing :p With this in mind I am going to post a lot of hands from games where I think I've played pretty poorly and post a lot of "standardish" hands. Whilst not very exciting, these spots come up most often and thus have the potential to be extremely costly if repeatedly played incorrectly. I'm also going to have a couple of these auto-pilot/poorly played games reviewed in their entirety (enjoy mers) and hopefully every week I can continually remove the worst parts of my game. Having said this the HH convertor does slightly tilt me and I do enjoy thinking about lines in general/non hand-specific theory. So I'll try not to make it a HH party in here. I think improving A game is also important and so I also plan on talking/asking about some more interesting stuff like manipulating ranges and taking uncommon lines. I have found it so far to be the case that when you can get people out of their comfort zone their immediate response is to revert back to a very straightforward way of thinking. When you act in an unconventional way or start doing things that your opponent isn't used to seeing it becomes a new game to them and more often than not peoples initial way of playing this "new game" is incorrect. This is all well and good in theory, but in reality it's quite tough to find new ways of doing things that aren't completely spewy :p Still, I believe it is worth devoting some time to thinking about these things and will hopefully be able do so in this thread. GL everyone!http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LWzbKNfGSY8
Making sure to change input format (down where you submit post) to Full HTML helps most people with HHs.Good to have you here, lol @ youtube video.
No Limit Holdem Tournament • 2 Players$110+$5 Hand converted by the official HUSNG.com hand converter SBVillain1560 BBHero1440 Effective Stacks: 72bb Blinds 10/20 Pre-Flop (30, 2 players) Hero is BB villain raises to 60, Hero calls 40 Flop (120, 2 players) Hero checks, villain checks Turn (120, 2 players) Hero bets 80, villain raises to 240, Hero... It's occured to me recently that a small leak may not be extracting max value from strong hands. So we have this hand... early in the match vs a reg I've never played before so I don't know how good he is. Obviously has some hand reading skills though. I was tempted to donk flop but figured a cbet was kinda likely. Thoughts on turn? Flatting and letting him fire riv vs cib and hoping he thinks he has room to reship draws with fold equity vs shipping and trying to look like a draw. Or just lead flop next time?
Leading flop is far too results oriented - It's a board he should be c-betting a good amount of the time unless you have reads that suggest otherwise.Really weird line by him to raise the turn. I'm torn about what to do here. He reps very few hands for value or for bluff really. I think I usually 3bet turn with the mind that most people will very rarely raise for value and then fold to a 3bet here, plus there's big flush draws that make a good amount of sense. Against an active thinking reg who is capable of raising wide-ish and thin value betting river I'm calling and checking river to him a lot. But I think more readless we should just 3bet turn.
And thoughts on 3betting vs shoving? I think readless it may be better to give him every chance to stick it in himself but shoving looks kinda drawy... close enough to not really worry about?
I think a non-allin 3bet is better than jamming just because if he's ever doing this with 5x we want to give him "correct" odds to draw , same with a few weird pair+draw hands.
so in an effort to auto-pilot less i've turned off my hud, it's amazing how much i was relying on it and how much i was missing by not paying attention. now i have to think more :p anyways, a few hands from today. this guy doesn't fold to 3b's, like ever, so im making my sizes pre big and my value range is real wide. lately though he has been betting wide a ton when i check flop, so i was planning on c/jamming. but then he just jams on me which is pretty wtf, i don't think it's ever a complete bluff, from what i've seen it's weighted to a ton of draws he's happy to stack off with. No Limit Holdem Tournament • 2 Players$110+$5 Hand converted by the official HUSNG.com hand converter BBHero1560 SBVill1440 Effective Stacks: 72bb Blinds 10/20 Pre-Flop (30, 2 players) Hero is BB Vill raises to 60, Hero raises to 200, Vill calls 140 Flop (400, 2 players) Hero checks, Vill goes all-in 1240, just a matter of plugging in his range and working it out? and thoughts on rest of hand? --------------this hand is vs a slightly losing player, only played 500 games. i don't always 3b QTo, QTs i would prob be more inclined to flat, here i decide to 3b and see how he reacts.on the turn effectives stacks i think are just under 1100. i bet 1/3rd trying to get him to play jam or fold. he flats :| river sucks and not sure if i should be jamming or c/f or c/c.No Limit Holdem Tournament • 2 Players$110+$5 Hand converted by the official HUSNG.com hand converter BBHero1520 SBVillain1480 Effective Stacks: 74bb Blinds 10/20 Pre-Flop (30, 2 players) Hero is BB Villain raises to 40, Hero raises to 140, Villain calls 100 Flop (280, 2 players) Hero bets 180, Villain calls 180 Turn (640, 2 players) Hero bets 415, Villain calls 415 River (1470, 2 players) Hero ... i mean i think it's a c/f given he's rarely going to turn showdown into a bluff but i hate folding. first hand readless flatting QTo is better than 3b?-------------------this next hand is infact first hand and readless. thoughts? No Limit Holdem Tournament • 2 Players$110+$5 Hand converted by the official HUSNG.com hand converter SBVillain1500 BBHero1500 Effective Stacks: 75bb Blinds 10/20 Pre-Flop (30, 2 players) Hero is BB Villain raises to 40, Hero calls 20 Flop (80, 2 players) Hero checks, Villain bets 50, Hero raises to 145, Villain calls 95 Turn (370, 2 players) Hero bets 210, Villain raises to 540, Hero goes all-in 1315
I think I'd check the first QT as well and would fold to the jam.First hand I think QT is better to flat and not 3bet. I would c/f river as painful as it is.I think jamming the T9 is a mistake. Just flat. What was your reasoning for jamming?
thought that any 6,7,8,9,T could kill the action and if he's spewing with 8x or has something like AT or worse 9Xdd better to get it in now. plus when he's infront i have equity. Felt like flatting and c/f was a bit weak, but no? Probably levelling myself into shoving when the truth is im crushed and getting snapped 90%+.
oh yeh and also to i jam to river the 9 obv :p
also two other hands, just want to make sure that folding is the default option in both cases? the first one I think is standard, turn DB for value seems standard, I bet small for value on the river which maybe causes a bit of spew but i think readless vs a random it's an easy b/f? the second one i have a read that he will c/c flop light, but i think i perhaps need some more concrete reads before i consider raising river?? i want to raise cause of the sizing, but again vs a random is it wrong to assume to much from his river size? or is there a big enough population tendency to just be weak there that i can profitably raise it up? No Limit Holdem Tournament • 2 Players$110+$5 Hand converted by the official HUSNG.com hand converter SBHero1600 BBVillain1400 Effective Stacks: 70bb Blinds 10/20 Pre-Flop (30, 2 players) Hero is SB Hero raises to 50, Villain calls 30 Flop (100, 2 players) Villain checks, Hero bets 50, Villain calls 50 Turn (200, 2 players) Villain checks, Hero bets 120, Villain calls 120 River (440, 2 players) Villain checks, Hero bets 180, Villain goes all-in 1180, ------------ No Limit Holdem Tournament • 2 Players$110+$5 Hand converted by the official HUSNG.com hand converter SBHero1660 BBVillain1340 Effective Stacks: 27bb Blinds 25/50 Pre-Flop (75, 2 players) Hero is SB Hero raises to 100, Villain calls 50 Flop (200, 2 players) Villain checks, Hero bets 100, Villain calls 100 Turn (400, 2 players) Villain checks, Hero bets 200, Villain calls 200 River (800, 2 players) Villain bets 150
"thought that any 6,7,8,9,T could kill the action and if he's spewing with 8x or has something like AT or worse 9Xdd better to get it in now. plus when he's infront i have equity. Felt like flatting and c/f was a bit weak, but no? Probably levelling myself into shoving when the truth is im crushed and getting snapped 90%+."I think you're overestimating his 8x/AT/worse 9xdd significantly in terms of his overall range and the percentage of the time those hands jam the river. I think you're beat here most of them time but have the equity to continue. It feels blah to call and c/f but it's best imo.
AQ hand is a b/f on river. I would usually bet just a little more on the river for value and to induce a little less but you definitely have to fold to the jam. There aren't nearly enough bluffs in his range.I would double barrel the Q5 a little bit bigger on the turn - like 230-250 - to fold out more 2x/3x/Ax. I'm fine with giving up on the river against a random.
does fine with giving up on the river = raising is generally going to be bad though?
I would guess that raising is -EV, yes.
Remember to send me material for your private coaching hour - the end of the month is going to be hectic, so if you can get it to me this week, that'd be great.
it's good to be back :D super excited to be learning hypersNo Limit Holdem Tournament • 2 Players$58.74+$1.26 Hand converted by the official HUSNG.com hand converter SBfedor0281560 BBHero440 Effective Stacks: 22bb Blinds 10/20 Pre-Flop (30, 2 players) Hero is BB fedor0281 calls 10, Hero raises to 60, fedor0281 calls 40 Flop (120, 2 players) Hero bets 40, fedor0281 raises to 80, Hero calls 40 Turn (280, 2 players) Hero checks, fedor0281 bets 80, Hero calls 80 River (440, 2 players) Hero checks, fedor0281 goes all-in 340, Hero folds Final Pot: 780 fedor0281 wins 780 ( won +220 ) Hero lost -220Should I be making it 70 or 80 pre with TT here? Only a few hands in but his first limp. Debated just checking the flop given it's so dry but opted for small cbet instead. Questioning this decision now though... When he minraises I flat to reeval turn and he ends up betting really small into a card that smacks my range which kinda puzzled me. Figure I can flat and watch him check back all his SD value on the river. Then he ends up jamming a river card which also smacks me. It's weird I told myself he would check back all his SD value so I want to bluff catch but kinda felt like people are gonna give up with their bluffs on this turn and river aswell and told myself he must have it.
No Limit Holdem Tournament • 2 Players$58.74+$1.26 Hand converted by the official HUSNG.com hand converter SBgonval2010420 BBHero580 Effective Stacks: 21bb Blinds 10/20 Pre-Flop (30, 2 players) Hero is BB gonval2010 calls 10, Hero raises to 60, gonval2010 calls 40 Flop (120, 2 players) Hero checks, gonval2010 bets 20, Hero calls 20 Turn (160, 2 players) Hero checks, gonval2010 bets 140, Hero goes all-in 500 felt like the flop hit his limp/calling range. had seen him limp/call J9o earlier. when he min bets i figure i can peel and when nearly pots the turn I really felt like it was more likely a draw looking for FE than a value hand. would prob like it more if I had one of the spades.
Also just a few basic Q's relating to the new hypers on stars...what do you consider to be the winrate of someone who is:a) the stars version of serkules and printing moneyb) pretty darn solid, results a bit above most other regsc) getting by and will come out with some profits if he can maintain his composure and not tilt through the wild swings. and what do you think will be common/acceptable losing streaks? i just ten in a row :P how many losses or how big of a sample until it becomes less likely about variance and a lot more about a lack of skills?
What's the structure? Sorry.
similar to ftp i think, 500 stacks, 2 minute levels - 10/20, 15/30, 20/40, 25/50, 30/60, 40/80, 50/100
I'm not sure what differences to expect between FTP and Stars to be honest. I'd expect fairly similar results I suppose.
so what would you estimate the actual winrates are then for the 3 different players i listed? i know for turbos that 0.60 is pretty godlike, 0.58 is printing money and 0.56 is modest profits if you don't tilt but unsure for supers/hypers. i'm interested just cause i've been playing around with a variance calculator a bit and i'm not sure if i'm being unrealistic with the winrates i'm putting in.
I'm not sure in terms of winrate, 5%, 3%, 2% in terms of ROI would be those 3 categories.
ok ty anyways another hand, readless i'm not sure what my default on the flop should be and as played wonder if we can get away with a smaller turn bet and shove river?No Limit Holdem Tournament • 2 Players$58.74+$1.26 Hand converted by the official HUSNG.com hand converter BBgonval2010520 SBHero480 Effective Stacks: 24bb Blinds 10/20 Pre-Flop (30, 2 players) Hero is SB Hero raises to 40, gonval2010 calls 20 Flop (80, 2 players) gonval2010 bets 60, Hero calls 60 Turn (200, 2 players) gonval2010 checks, Hero bets 120
It's a flop fold readless until you see he's capable of donking wide. I think I'd make it 110 and jam river as played.
First hand completely readless, kind of a meh question but is this a shrug and call or fold readless?No Limit Holdem Tournament • 2 Players$29.37+$0.63 Hand converted by the official HUSNG.com hand converter SBVillain500 BBHero500 Effective Stacks: 25bb Blinds 10/20 Pre-Flop (30, 2 players) Hero is BB Hero raises to 40, Villain calls 30 Flop (80, 2 players) Villain checks, Hero bets 40, Villain goes all-in 460
No Limit Holdem Tournament • 2 Players$29.37+$0.63 Hand converted by the official HUSNG.com hand converter SBGinxed590 BBHero410 Effective Stacks: 14bb Blinds 15/30 Pre-Flop (45, 2 players) Hero is BB Ginxed raises to 90, Hero goes all-in 410, just a quick check on working some math stuff out, this was the guys first raise. He has pretty much just been limping and cbetting when he hits and OOP he's been calling and playing fit or fold so just loose passive in general, I'd just shipped it in preflop previous hand with 44. I still figured that 14BBs 66 is an easy jam but was pretty much expecting to get snapped. If I put in a range of the top 17% of hands in Stove then I have about 46% equity and i'm shoving 380 chips here into a pot of what I expect to be 820 when he calls. Which is like 2.15-to-1 pot odds which actually means I only need like 32% equity. Which I pretty much always have, even if his range is AJ+, 77+. Is this all correct? I'm not sure if I'm calculating the shove correctly. Also I think you missed HH1 and HH2 that I posted earlier :(
I THINK I would fold the K7. The problem is that even flush draws very often have 50%+ equity against us, and of course we're in bad shape against Qx. You'll also occasionally see A7 here which blows.
Still a jam with the 66. Your math is off, though. You've only invested 30, so you need to get in 380 more for a pot of 820 (which you noted), but the equity calc is actually 380/820 for 46%.
Sorry about missing first two hands. I prefer 70 pre with TT but it's very close. Your line is good post. I would cbet the KT, and I'm not a big fan of your jam, I think he has more value hands that are scared of draws than just draws themselves.
vs an aggro 3b shover ~20-25BBs (or any stack depth I guess) what are your thoughts on just minraising 100% and then calling a perfect range? i.e. just estimating that they're shoving a range of 35% and then working out a MR/calling range vs that? or is it going to be far more +EV to implement the ROFL strategy?I haven't put a ton of though into it just curious really, never considered it as an adjustment. I mean obv I know to MR/call wider but never thought of continuing to MR 100%.Pretty sure ROFL is a much better way to go, just throwing it out there though :p
i think the problem is that you need a lot of history to be able to "build the perfect range". most of the adjustments you would make using ROFL strat are typically going to be +ev (maybe not max EV), but the adjustments dont necessarily hinge on us having complete information on our opponent either. obv if we minraise 100% and they dont 3bet shove frequently enough, even if its a lot of 3bets, we should continue with minraising 100%...for example, if villain 3bet shoves 35% of hands but doesn't have a flatting range at all oop, he is still folding way too many hands oop so we print money by just raising his bb. if we minraise 100% and they 3bet shove way too much, then we can pretty easily build a calling range that exploits that also.ROFL is going to work well in a lot of situations in between those 2 extremes imo.
cool thanks, that makes a lot of sensegonna be looking a lot at 3b shoving today so stay tuned for more questions :D
I know there's a TON of info out there on 3betting shoving, it's been addressed a lot in these forums and with vids on the site and all over 2p2 and what not and when watching someone else do it I can follow quite easily. But I often get stumped when trying to do the calcs myself, purely because I just haven't done it enough to remember what comes next. So apologies for another request to be walked through it all again :P If villain is MR/calling 100% of his range (i.e. calling pretty wide or raising pretty tight) then it's a pretty easy calculation I believe. For example, 1500 effective stacks at 50/100 I 3b shove 1400 to win 3000 which means I need more than 46.6% equity when called for it to be a +EV jam. I plug in my hand and villains range into stove and see if I have more than 46.6%. First question, I think I've read that stove doesn't take into account card removal? i.e. if I'm jamming Ax it reduces the amount of Ax combos in villains range but stove doesn't factor this in. So should I be using another program for these calcs? And secondly, it seems different people use different terminology and it's kinda confusing me; if I fold pre I lose -1BB correct? So when my hand is a +EV jam in the above example, does that mean it is positive BB expectation, or just +EV compared to the -1BB of folding? If it's always >0BBev then how do I determine what hands are going to be between -0.1 and 0, i.e. how do I know which hands are -EV shoves but still better than folding? Should I just get into the habit for now of always using the EV formula (from http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/58/heads-up-nl/pooh-bah-post-3bet-shov...)EV(total) = 2CEM - CM - CB + B + 1 WhereC = the percentage of the time your 3bet gets calledE = your equity when you get calledB = the button bet size (in big blinds, where a limp = 1, a minraise = 2, etc)M = effective remaining stacks (measured in big blinds, and before blinds are posted) (I know there's programs out there that do this automatically but for now want to do it manually so I understand it better) Hope this all makes sense, although I'm sure it doesn't and I'm sorry but I have a feeling it could get worse from here haha.
Some examples just to see if I'm on right track...1k stacks, 50/100 and villain MR/calls his entire range. I have K4s which vs 100% of hands has (according to stove) 54.8% equity.so...C= 1.00E= .548B= 2M= 10 EV(total) = 2CEM - CM - CB + B + 1=2*1*0.548*10 - 1*10 - 1*2 + 2 + 1=10.96 - 10 - 2 + 2 + 1=1.96 So shoving K4s gives us +1.96BBs. Again though, is this compared to folding? i.e. folding is -1BB, so shoving K4s is actually on +0.96BBs overall? Or is it just right from the start of the hand we stand to gain 1.96BBs by jamming, making it 2.96BBs better than folding? Second example, 1k stacks, 25/50. Villain MRs 50% and calls a shove with the top 15%. (And I'm assuming that for this player the top 15% is always in his MR range) AKA, he will MR/call 30% of the time. We have K4s again. Against a range of 55+, A7o+, A5s+ and KQ (15.2%) K4s has 34.53% equity. (again, according to stove)so...C= 0.30E= .345B= 2M= 20 EV(total) = 2CEM - CM - CB + B + 1=2*0.3*0.345*20 - 0.30*20 - 0.30*2 + 2 + 1=4.14 - 6 - 0.6 + 2 + 1=0.54 Is this formula taking into account the chips we gain when he folds?? And as with the above, does this mean that we stand to gain half a big blind from the start of the hand by 3b jamming? Or is it just 0.54BBs better than the -1BB of folding making it actually -0.46BBs overall?And before just snap jamming any hand that is better than -1BB we have to try and evaluate if it would be better to flat it.
"First question, I think I've read that stove doesn't take into account card removal? i.e. if I'm jamming Ax it reduces the amount of Ax combos in villains range but stove doesn't factor this in. So should I be using another program for these calcs?"Stove takes into account card removal in the sense that it will accurately report what A5's equity is against a range of good hands, noticing that our opponent can't have some combos of Ax, etc.Where many spreadsheets fail to take into account card removal is that you get called less often when you have A5, and you can't just do calling range/opening range to find out how often you'll get called when you shove.Propokertools is the best program, anyway
"And secondly, it seems different people use different terminology and it's kinda confusing me; if I fold pre I lose -1BB correct? So when my hand is a +EV jam in the above example, does that mean it is positive BB expectation, or just +EV compared to the -1BB of folding? If it's always >0BBev then how do I determine what hands are going to be between -0.1 and 0, i.e. how do I know which hands are -EV shoves but still better than folding?"You can use different frames of reference and be equally valid. I like to think of it as expectation from the start of the hand, which reinforces that calling is always an option, not just shoving or folding. In your "46.6%" example, you're comparing shoving to folding, or -1bb. That's OK, as long as you know what you're doing.
The way you're doing it, +1.96 for K4s is compared against folding. It's the same as +0.96 from the start of the hand. Second example is -0.46bb from the start of the hand."And before just snap jamming any hand that is better than -1BB we have to try and evaluate if it would be better to flat it."Exactly. Or 3bet/call it.
cool tyty, so basically if I just deduct 1 from all my answers it'll give me the expectation from the start of the hand. I find it a lot easier to read/comprehend that way. And I can try to recreate some of ur tables and then do my own for diff stack depths/ranges :D The GetThere FastTrack Program coming in September people! :p the issue with spreadsheets not taking into account card removal, is there anyway to counter this? the only thing I can think of is chopping off 1 or 2% from his MR/call range when we have blockers. this seems a little rough though, hardly an exact science. Or maybe just add 0.1BB to the results or something?
just wanted to say i like your attitude in your first post...being proactive, going after what you want, not being the victim...that's what success is all about. congrats.i'd encourage you to not set a ceiling for yourself like "i dont plan to play higher than 220...look at lagachette". lagachette has made a lot of money, but he is not good vs regs and has been exposed by some regs who i don't even think are all that good. just continue to work the right way, improve every day, and see where your career takes you. until some positive US legislation comes along, the average poker player is always going to be improving. the problem for guys like lagachette (and numerous others) is that when they started really printing money they decided that they "made it" and were set and just didn't need to improve anymore. the problem with this is that their skill/knowledge of the game is stagnant (or even regressing), and the average player is improving pretty rapidly. this leads to a gradually decreasing winrate, and the profitability they were enjoying inevitably diminishes or goes away completely (because good regs wont let them have lobbies). i dont know lagach's recent results, but i do know a fair bit about he approaches the game...just my honest opinion of where i think someone's career is headed when they get complacent and expect results to last forever.i could list dozens of guys that fall into this category, but i wont. let's keep my lagach bashing private :). fwiw, im sure he's a great guy. poker is so hard and their are infinite mental traps to deal with (like really, how do u not get complacent when you are making 200k+/year?). it's just the reality of the game these days.
thanks for the advice hokie, i think my attitude has changed a bit recently and i definitely agree with your post. I think having never been able to cement myself as a solid 110/220 winner I was envious of guys like gach who posted month after month of profit with seemingly little effort. I guess just sitting there in a comfort zone and making money became like the holy grail to me but i understand a lot more now how that can't really happen and with shrinking edges it's never going to be sustainable. My biggest problem has always been that rather than actually work my butt off to get where I want to go I've continually opted to sit back and auto-pilot and expect the results to roll in. I think I'm slowly managing to correct this behaviour though and put in the hours studying and focusing. For now I've dropped down to the $30s to rebuild my game and work a ton on hypers. And you'll be pleased to know that I have removed the 220 ceiling and to be honest I no longer see reaching that level as my goal. If I get there, great. If I surpass it, great. If I don't make it, not great, but whatever haha. For now I've given myself the mantra "be better today than you were yesterday" and let's see where it goes :D thanks again for your words
i've been continuing to look at the 3b shoving thing and have a few more questions. I made an initial assumption that if the EV from 3b jamming is worse than -1bb then I should just fold the hand because it would prob have terrible EV from flatting as well. I think this is incorrect on my behalf though. There could be times where it's like flat>fold>jam right? eg some suited connectors vs guys who have really tight opening ranges?I've asked a little bit about this before but I understand that without a massive sample of hands we can't really determine the EV of flatting OOP at different stack depths vs different villains. Short of stealing the HEM database of a long-term winning player, is there some sort of general rule I can start to use until I've built up my own sample? I think you mentioned in one of your vids mers that at 15BBs and less we shouldn't be flatting too much? (I know there's discussion in one of the student's threads here about flatting short too so I'll go reread that.) Is it just going to be a matter of saying, "3b shoving is better than folding and this hand flops bad (eg J2s) so i jam" or "3b shoving is better than folding and this hand flops well vs this specific player (9Ts) so I flat"? I'm guessing it ain't that simple but figured I'd ask anyways :p In particular it's hands like K5s and 9Ts that I'm torn between jam or flat.I know that a lot of people, myself being no different, have always undervalued the awesomeness of 3b jamming. Now that I understand the calc's and can manually get the answers I see in a lot of the charts on these forums I'm using automated spreadsheets that do it for me. (Which makes sense obv, I just wanted to learn how to do it manually first) I'm using Insane_Steve's latest endgame calculator spreadsheet and have created a few of my own tables as well using some of the info in there. At 15BBs vs a 70% MR who calls 25.5% (22+, A2+, K9s+, KT+, QJ) my table is telling me that 3b jamming pretty much ATC is better than folding. 72o,62o,42o and 32o are the only combinations that are -1bb or worse. If this is true then it's pretty cool but before I start fistpumping for learning I just want to double check that this is correct? Or does it sound like there's an error in my spreadsheet somewhere? (Aside from the card removal problem that I asked how to correct earlier)Wow if I widen the calling range to something looser like (22+,A2s+,K2+,Q6s+,Q7+,J8s+,J9+,T8s+,T9) then like 3/4's of the table turns to worse than -1bb if I 3b jam. Which, assuming the calcs are all right, illustrates the point that life sucks when ur card dead vs LAGs. anyways, tytyty and sorry for such an essay!
"the issue with spreadsheets not taking into account card removal, is there anyway to counter this? the only thing I can think of is chopping off 1 or 2% from his MR/call range when we have blockers. this seems a little rough though, hardly an exact science. Or maybe just add 0.1BB to the results or something?"Just don't use spreadsheets if you're looking for an exact answer :)"There could be times where it's like flat>fold>jam right? eg some suited connectors vs guys who have really tight opening ranges?"Absolutely. It's going to be best against people with pretty tight opening ranges for the most part.The big difference is that a 70% minraiser at 15bb is actually quite rare. People love to limp and openshove as well at these stack depths, as well as fold. If they actually minraise 70%, then sure, we should shove quite wide (although your calling range is too tight), but most people do not.
OK I'm starting to verge on asking to be spoon-fed which isn't what I want to do :p so I'll try to make this the last little bit on the topic for now."Just don't use spreadsheets if you're looking for an exact answer :)"This issue of an exact answer has been giving me grief lately. When you say don't use a spreadsheet you mean I'll have to work out what his new raise/call range% is if I'm holding blockers and then work out the equation with a more accurate %? Couldn't this be factored in to a spreadsheet? Do you think basing decisions on what the end game calculator tells me is going to be a bit of a leak then or a decent enough approximation? Even if the spreadsheet took into account card removal the biggest issue I'm having with this is that it's still going to be so god damn hard to be exact! In such a small sample the numbers aren't going to be accuate by any means and even if I've played someone for 10-15 games he can easily be running hot over those games and raising a higher% then normal which is gonna screw me over. There's hands where flatting isn't an option so it's jam or fold. I plug in what I think the calling range is and 60% MR and I can't jam it. But if I change it to like 62% MR then it's better to jam. And it's like with such small margins there's just never going to be any way I can be sure. Obviously hands like PPs and Ax are going to be great to jam, but there's other hands that change according to tiny differences in ranges that I'm never going to be able to know accurately enough. I can technically be 3b-jamming my ass off and be under the impression it's +EV based on what I think I know but I'm actually owning myself. So I guess I'm just wondering what your thoughts are on the issue and how to best deal with it? Do I just play it safe with the marginal decisions and instead look for spots where the answer is always the same even if I adjust ranges by a few %? And finally you mentioned my calling range is a little too tight so I'm thinking I may be a little off in my estimations... At 20BBs, 15BBs, and 12BBs I think the population average MR/calling ranges (assuming that we're pretty much readless and villain isn't limping his monsters**) are about the following:20BBs - A5s+, A7o+, 44+, KJs+, KQ15BBs - A2+, K9s+, KTo+, 22+, QJs12BBs - I expect the average villain to jam alot of Ax and PPs so in his MR/call range I figure there's like TT+, K2s+, K8o+, Q8s+, Q9o+, J9s+, JTo+, T9s and maybe AT+ if he's MR that.Am I allowed to ask you what your ranges are for the above depths? And would you always stick to your ranges until you see him call a jam with something else? Or will you get to a showdown and see that he called 57o pre and therefore make an assumption that he will be calling 3bjams wider than average too? **Once I see villains limping hands that I have in the MR/call range, for example at 15BBs villains limps KJo, I can start jamming wider cause he's MR/calling range is now tighter than I thought correct? Vs someone who's going to be limping a fair bit and MR pretty polar, non-all in 3b bluffs can become pretty cool, even ~15BBs yes? Tyty!
i'll let Mers handle this one :) ::HokieGreg head-asplode!::
bumping for mersaments
"Am I allowed to ask you what your ranges are for the above depths?"WTF? You think I'd like withhold information or something? God, this forum is tilting the hell out of me tonight <320bb, readless, I'm raise/calling something like A8o+, A5s+ 44+ (jamming 22-33), KJo+, KTs.15bb, readless, I'm openjamming A2-A7 and 22-66. Raise/calling 77+ K9o+ K7s+ QJo Q9s+."And would you always stick to your ranges until you see him call a jam with something else? Or will you get to a showdown and see that he called 57o pre and therefore make an assumption that he will be calling 3bjams wider than average too?"Oops, you're talking about rejamming range. So, 20bb deep, I've written two articles about that. 15bb deep, it's really hard to say "readless" because we almost always have reads, but any ace, any pair, K5s+, K8o+, QJo, Q9s+, J8s+, T9s, and maybe some extra suited hands in there. This range changes very drastically based on quick reads though (yes, if you see them call really light, that affects it a ton).
Yeh sorry my bad didn't make it very clear, I meant what do you think the raise/calling ranges are of villain at like 12/15/20BBs. So when I said "can I ask what your ranges are" I didn't actually mean your ranges :p haha I mean what you expect to see your opponent doing. Cause I'm worried I'm jamming or not jamming based on assumptions about the average opponent that may be a little off. I got the 20BB ranges from ur articles, what about 15BBs? I understand by 15BBs that we should have some reads and this is going to affect our estimates of his MR/calling range, but humour me anyways? :p And also the issue with exactness? "there's other hands that change (in terms of EV) according to tiny differences in ranges that I'm never going to be able to know accurately enough. I can technically be 3b-jamming my ass off and be under the impression it's +EV based on what I think I know but I'm actually owning myself. So I guess I'm just wondering what your thoughts are on the issue and how to best deal with it? Do I just play it safe with the marginal decisions and instead look for spots where the answer is always the same even if I adjust ranges by a few %?" An example of this would be 20BBs deep, villain MRs and I expect him to call 22+,A2+,K9s+,KT+,QJ. I have T5s. If he's raising 65% then folding is better than shoving. However if he's raising 70% then shoving is better than folding. It's near on impossible to be certain of the exact %. My HUD tells me 70% but like I mentioned the sample is rarely going to be big enough so it's like do I just pass on these marginal hands and stick to jamming the ones that aren't so close?
15bb it's just too different because people will openshove and limp with such different frequencies that coming up with an appropriate aggregate response isn't great, some approximation is in the other post."Do I just play it safe with the marginal decisions and instead look for spots where the answer is always the same even if I adjust ranges by a few %?""No need to play it safe. Do what you think has the best expectation."My HUD tells me 70% but like I mentioned the sample is rarely going to be big enough so it's like do I just pass on these marginal hands and stick to jamming the ones that aren't so close?"So, I'd definitely play the hand. You can even call with T5s vs a 70% opener, that's going to be better than folding.As for the specifics, it's all bayesian updating. If your opponent opens 2 of the first 3 hands, you'd assume his minraising range is probably a little less than 2/3, because most randoms have an opening range of less than 2/3. So over some samples, it's a jam, and some, it's not. I'm not sure exactly the number, but after 100 hands you start to get a decent sense. But you still get some sense after 10 hands.Also, remember something people forget: If the decision really seems that close based on the best available information, then it really doesn't matter what you do! They'll have similar expectation.Personally, I sometimes err too much on the side of playing it a little safe with re-jams and pass up on it sometimes when the math isn't clear, but it's quite possible that actually loses me money and it's a bad practice.
awesome, thanks for all your feedback helps a ton :Di'm going to try and spend some time with my last few days of access to the forum to look a bit more at limped pots. think too often i tend to auto-pilot in them and end up playing my cards rather than looking at how I should be adjusting on different textures vs different opponents. these are the first 4 hands I played OOP against a random. Hand 1:No Limit Holdem Tournament • 2 Players$58.74+$1.26 Hand converted by the official HUSNG.com hand converter SBfelipevasque500 BBHero500 Effective Stacks: 25bb Blinds 10/20 Pre-Flop (30, 2 players) Hero is BB felipevasque calls 10, Hero checks Flop (40, 2 players) Hero checks, felipevasque checks Turn (40, 2 players) Hero bets 30, felipevasque calls 30 River (100, 2 players) Hero bets 60, I think this is pretty standard, readless I expect Qx and 8x to bet most of the time on the flop so his range on the river is pretty weak. If he has me beat then note it and move on. What I'm mainly interested in though is the flop play. Given I have a J-high gutshot I'm more than happy to win the pot on the flop. I just don't know whether in general c/r a board like this will give us more fold equity or whether leading and barreling most turn cards is better? is c/c flop with the plan to bet a lot of rivers if turn is checked a bit meh? basically just curious what your default flop line would be here. very next button he limps again:No Limit Holdem Tournament • 2 Players$58.74+$1.26 Hand converted by the official HUSNG.com hand converter SBfelipevasque430 BBHero570 Effective Stacks: 22bb Blinds 10/20 Pre-Flop (30, 2 players) Hero is BB felipevasque calls 10, Hero checks Flop (40, 2 players) Hero checks, felipevasque checks Turn (40, 2 players) Hero bets 30, felipevasque folds He folded in the first hand so I think it's fine to take the same line here and bet most rivers that don't pair or complete the straight draws. my main concern is again the flop though. he limped hand one and folded before SD so i'm not if I should be leading a flop like this one? if not c/f was my plan. then third button he again limps at which point i decide it's time to see how he reacts vs raises.No Limit Holdem Tournament • 2 Players$58.74+$1.26 Hand converted by the official HUSNG.com hand converter SBfelipevasque455 BBHero545 Effective Stacks: 23bb Blinds 10/20 Pre-Flop (30, 2 players) Hero is BB felipevasque calls 10, Hero raises to 60, felipevasque calls 40 Flop (120, 2 players) Hero bets 70, felipevasque calls 70 Turn (260, 2 players) Hero bets 120, felipevasque calls 120 River (500, 2 players) Hero checks, felipevasque checks Final Pot: 500 felipevasque shows a pair of Eights Hero shows high card Queen felipevasque wins 500 ( won +250 ) Hero lost -250 Kinda felt weak giving up on the river but felt like once he called flop and turn that the 4 wasn't going to change much. a lot of other cards I can barrel but chickened out on this on :p also looking at it now really not stoked on turn sizing, not exactly sure how I was expecting him to fold to a small bet on this turn once he calls flop :S then for the fourth time he again limps, given he limp/called 8To and has just generally been loose passive I figured I could just set this up for a go and go.No Limit Holdem Tournament • 2 Players$58.74+$1.26 Hand converted by the official HUSNG.com hand converter SBfelipevasque685 BBHero315 Effective Stacks: 11bb Blinds 15/30 Pre-Flop (45, 2 players) Hero is BB felipevasque calls 15, Hero raises to 120, felipevasque folds Final Pot: 150 Hero wins 150 ( won +30 ) felipevasque lost -30 thoughts on these hands? I'll likely have a couple more tomorrow, in particular i'm interested in flop spots where I'm not 100% sure if I'm trying to get value or bluff... and then i'm not sure if c/r or leading is the best way to go about each one.
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