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janith's picture
Assumptions about opponent's strategy

First hand , opponent min reraise my button open with KhJh i call with Ts8s.Flop 9h7x2h.He checks.I don't know anything about opponent's play so i check back with my oesd + 1 oc.(He could be the player who calls down with A high if i bet.They exist at this stake.)Turn Qx , he checks, i  check.River 5h he check again with his nut flush.I check back.

What can you deduce about the opponent from this play?



On this hand he min raised, i flatned with 76s.Flop 94Txx.Check-check.Turn 9 .Check-check.River 7o .I bet 75% of the pot for value.He raised  2.5 times.I think his range here polarized between 9x , AA-JJ and air.

I  assume  he wouldn't  be raising with Tx , 7 with a kicker & 88.

Do you think these assumptions consistent with his earlier play?

Sorry for my bad english.

No Limit Holdem Tournament • 2 Players

$1.44+$0.06

Hand converted by the official HUSNG.com hand converter

BB Hero 516  
SB perin2013 484  

Effective Stacks: 24bb

Blinds 10/20

Pre-Flop (30, 2 players)

Hero is BB

d7d6

perin2013 raises to 40, Hero calls 20

Flop (80, 2 players)

s9d4sT

Hero checks, perin2013 checks

Turn (80, 2 players)

c9

Hero checks, perin2013 checks

River (80, 2 players)

c7

Hero bets 60, perin2013 raises to 150, Hero calls 90

Final Pot: 380

Hero shows two pair, Nines and Sevens

d7d6

perin2013 shows a pair of Nines

 hJhttp://weaktight.com/img/d5/h5.gif

Hero wins 380 ( won +190 )

perin2013 lost -190

laurents's picture
street

Doesn't your opponent hit a street and should win the hand: 78910J... Oh wait, I thought the 5 was an 8...

LVT

pbogz1114's picture
Two things  1) Your opponent

Two things 
1) Your opponent should be cbetting that board  alot of the time because he doesnt have any showdown value. So when he checks back his draw it tells me that he is on the tighter side. Which means you should give his aggression a little more credit than vs most.
 
2) On the river you hit your pair, but in my eyes its a little to thin to bet for value and its clearly not a bluff. You probably put him on Ax which isn't wrong, but when he reraises you should know that you are behind. Not to mention some s8's got there on the river. 
 
 
 
- Pbogz

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cdon3822's picture
Re: gathering reads on

Re: gathering reads on villain's previous play:
From that hand I would note that:
 - min 3b A[?] @ X BB
- no cbet in 3b pot w A high + nut FD => plays draws passively?
- checked nut flush to me on river in checked down min 3b pot => trappy?
 
Note that such villains are quite easy to find an edge against because they don't get enough value from their strong holdings.
You will not be making the same mistake so there should naturally be a positive differential in your favour when your strategies interact.
 
I don't like your river bet and especially don't like the sizing.
It is quite big for a thin value bet.
The only hands you get value from in this spot are 4x, Ax and sometimes PPs < 7s, which a smaller bet has better expectation against in my opinion.
When villain raises, we expect we are behind because our going read is that he is passive and has shown some inclination to trap.
But I can understand your call because his line makes absolutely no sense => we should have heard from any value hand before now.
 
I think you do better c/c river instead of bet-folding it because:
- there is more chance villain will bluff rather than pay our weak made hand off with a worse hand
- there are some missed draws and we have seen villain play even a strong draw passively, so he has hands which he can bluff with in his range which he probably won't call a bet with