Hiyaaaa Guys!
What do you think about this hand? Is it too agressive in a limped pot? villain is unknown..I'm still using Chadders check/shove method for gutshot +2 overs..
I appreciate your thoughts.
Cheers
zzsuugabubus
No Limit Holdem Tournament • 2 Players
$14.69+$0.31
Hand converted by the official HUSNG.com hand converter
| BB | Hero | 460 | |
| SB | gaensehaut | 540 |
Effective Stacks: 15bb
Blinds 15/30
Pre-Flop (45, 2 players)
Hero is BB
gaensehaut calls 15, Hero checks
Flop (60, 2 players)
Hero checks, gaensehaut bets 60, Hero goes all-in 430, gaensehaut folds
Final Pot: 180
Hero wins 550 ( won +90 )
gaensehaut lost -90
First, I'd do some simple math. Using Will Tipton's notation where EV of an action is the expected stack value after the action and if S is the starting effective stack and F the probability that Villain folds:
EV(Hero folding) = S - 30
EV(Hero all-in) = F * EV(Villain folds) + (1-F) * EV(Villain calls) = F * (S+90) + (1-F) * (2*S*Eq)
Eq is your equity versus his calling range. Solving for EV(all-in)>EV(folding) and with S = 460 we get:
F > (0.47-Eq) / (0.6-Eq)
Eq > (0.47-0.6F) / (1-F)
These formulas tell us that if our Equity is greater than 47% when he calls, then he doesn't even have to ever fold.
However, if he calls we rarely expect such a big equity. Most of the time he'll have a pair, which gives us approx. 35% of equity (I don't know for sure, I'm estimating for 10 outs -> less than 40% for two cards to come, also considering that he might improve and still beat us when we hit), if he has pair+7 he's sort of freerolling us and only with a flush draw he's the underdog but that's rare. Also a K4/A4 type of hand is better.
This means we need to have some fold equity also to make this a positive play. Considering our equity around 35% and solving for F we get F > 0.48!! so he needs to fold more than 50% or else we're better folding.
I believe two things are to be considered here:
1) what reads we have on the villain: does he like to stab limped pots IP with a full-pot bet and complete air? will he fold bottom pair against our check-raise? would be check behind a draw?
2) our math is only a starting point because we have only analyzed the EV of going all-in versus the EV of folding. But surely there are so many other options here.
I'd like to hear an expert's opinion on this matter. On one hand, it seems fine to c/r all-in since we're OOP and don't like to play next streets. However, intuitively this doesn't seem right, I don't know what Chadders said about this but risking 430 chips to win 90 or to race with a gutshot+overcards after a full-pot bet cannot be good in my mind against a good opponent (who will not make loose calls with flush draws and who would generally not bet/fold full pot).
If I were playing this hand, I would have bet the flop with, say 40-45. Given that I check and Villain bets full pot, I think I would just call here, or even fold if I knew he was not betting full pot unless he has some strong hand which has me beat.
Limped pot @ 15BB
flop pot = 2.0 BB, with 15 - 1 = 14.0 BB behind
Villain bets pot, 2.0 BB
when you jam, he needs to call 15 - 1 - 2 = 12.0 BB
in a pot of 15 * 2 = 30.0 BB
=> He is layed 12 / 30 = 40% pot odds
=> You are risking 15 - 1 = 14.0 BB, to win (2 + 2) = 4.0 BB
Risk / reward = 14 / 4 = 3.5
Consider single raised pot @ 25BB
flop pot = 4.0 BB, with 25 - 2 = 23.0 BB
Villain bets 0.5P, 2.0 BB
when you jam, he needs to call 25 - 2 - 2 = 21.0 BB
in a pot of 25 * 2 = 50.0 BB
=> He is layed 21 / 50 = 42% pot odds
=> You are risking 25 - 2 = 23.0 BB, to win (4 + 2) = 6.0 BB
Risk / reward = 23 / 6 = 3.8
We find that these two situations are mathematically very similar.
If you assume that villain is limping and stabbing this board @ 15.0 BB with the same [value] / [bluff] ratio that he would be min-raising and cbetting 0.5P @ 25.0 BB in a single raised pot, the profitability of c/r jamming in both cases would be comparable.
A pot size stab can be indicative of some villain's value range, but you didn't indicate any history of his bet sizing in limped pots when checked to in position.
If you don't have reads that villain has an overweighted preflop limp-to-trap range or that he plays with transparent bet sizing, a c/r jam is the correct play here.
Lots of equity, with presumably no showdown value (Q high might be good here but I think the times it is is roughly cancelled out by the times villain makes us fold it without seeing a showdown) against a range full of air => a recipe for a delicious semi-bluff.
I think c/r jamming here is not just acceptable, but is the best play without the reads mentioned above to suggest otherwise once you find yourself in this spot on the flop.
Also consider, most players are limp-folding @ 15.0BB with a pretty wide range, so you can also attack his limps profitably with a wide range preflop ...
I disagree with you cdon.
If we don't have history on villain's bet sizing in limped pots, I would tend to consider pot-sized bets value readless.
-Fish would just bet any pair without even considering bet size.
-Intermediate players will bet full pot to protect from draws and overcards.
-Advanced players will not need to bluff full pot as half-pot would reach its purpose here.
All-in-all I don't think c/r jam is the correct play here, at least not as clear as you mention it.
What do you think the best play is?
I'm a learning player, new to hyper HU and I can't claim I give an absolute analysis, but rather my subjective opinion only :)
I'm not sure what exactly to do here, but by elimination I choose folding. As I said before, check-raising is not intuitively good, check-calling is also not good against an opponent showing aggression (we don't get the right pot odds, maybe implied odds but remember we're readless).
I don't understand why one should stay in a hand only because he has some equity. The pot is 120 after his bet. Your overall equity against his "range of ranges" (unknown opponent) cannot be more than 40% at best. So your "fair share" of this pot is about 50 chips. I don't think playing for the rest of the chips is fine.
However it's not clear in my mind now. I promise I'll be back on this thread one month from now when I'll have more experience and give a better answer.
Consider what villain would call our jam with that would be part of his limp then stab flop when checked to range:
6x => we have 34% equity when called
http://www.propokertools.com/simulations/show?b=6h5s3h&g=he&h1=Qh7d&h2=6x&s=generic
2 overs + FD, with his high card less than ours eg. JhTh => we have 53% equity when called
http://www.propokertools.com/simulations/show?b=6h5s3h&g=he&h1=Qh7d&h2=JhTh&s=generic
2 overs + FD, with his high card higher than ours eg. Kh9h => we have 24% equity when called
http://www.propokertools.com/simulations/show?b=6h5s3h&g=he&h1=Qh7d&h2=Kh9h&s=generic
limp to trap range (if he has any) AA, KK => we 21% equity when called
http://www.propokertools.com/simulations
So if we give villain a preflop limping range @ 15BB of something like:
AA-KK,K9-K2,QJ-Q2,JT-J5,T9-T6,98-97,86,76-75,65,Jx4x-Jx2x,Tx5x-Tx2x,9x6x-9x2x,8x5x-8x2x,7x4x-7x2x,6x4x-6x2x,5x4x-5x2x,4x3x-4x2x,3x2x,8x7y
This is 607 combos of hands after card removal.
And we assume he will call our jam with [top pair or better] + [FD & 2 overs] + [FD + pair]
He can call us with something like:
AA,KK,Kx6y,Qx6y,Jx6y,Tx6y,8x6x,8x6y,7x6x,7x4x,7x6y,6x5x-6x2x,6x5y,5x3x,4x2x,Kh9h-Kh3h,QhJh-Qh3h,JhTh-Jh3h,Th9h-Th3h
+ the hearts only of
His calling range has 123 hands in it after card removal.
So he can call our jam with 123 / 607 ~ 20% of his preflop limping range.
And have 68% equity when he does so.
http://www.propokertools.com/simulations/show?b=6h5s3h&g=he&h1=Qh7d&h2=AA%2CKK%2CKx6y%2CQx6y%2CJx6y%2CTx6y%2C8x6x%2C8x6y%2C7x6x%2C7x4x%2C7x6y%2C6x5x-6x2x%2C6x5y%2C5x3x%2C4x2x%2CKh9h-Kh3h%2CQhJh-Qh3h%2CJhTh-Jh3h%2CTh9h-Th3h&s=generic
=> our equity against this range is 32%
The real question is, does he limp and then stab with his entire range?
If he does we can easily calculate the EV of c/r jamming:
EV(c/r jam) = f * P + (1-f) * (2 * S * e - J)
where:
P = pot before c/r jam = 2 + 2 = 4.0 BB
f = % of folds when we c/r jam
S = effective stacks = 15.0 BB
e = equity when called = 32%
J = cost of our jam = 15 - 1 = 14.0 BB
We can solve for how often villain needs to fold and compare it to his limp then stab range to deduce whether we believe this play is +EV, and as such better than folding.
0 = f * 4 + (1 - f) * (2 * 15 * 0.32- 14 )
0 = 4f + (1 - f) * (-4.4)
0 = 4f -4.4 +4.4f
f = 4.4 / 8.4 ~ 52%
Given that we estimated that villain had a hand he could call a jam with ~ 20% of the time.
If he is limping and stabbing with his entire range, he will be folding to a jam ~ 80% of the time and c/r jamming will be better than folding (he needs to fold 52% of the time).
If the pot size bet is in fact indicative of villain's "willing to stack off" range, we don't have the fold equity required to overcome our pot equity disadvantage when called.
I still think villain is limping and then stabbing with enough air relative to his "willing to stack off" range that c/r jamming is the best play.
When requiring ~ 50% folds, he only needs a 1:1 ratio of bluff to value in his limp then stab pot range to profitably c/r jam @ 15BB.
While you wrote this I was writing a reply too :), but with a very different limp range I think (didn't read anything else than the result from your last post yet), I assumed he would raise about 60% and limp next 20% in equilab and here is what I got:
if this is his limp range:
AA,T2s,94s-92s,84s-82s,74s-73s,63s-62s,53s-52s,43s,Q4o-Q2o,J6o-J3o,T6o-T5o,96o-95o,86o-85o,75o+,65o,54o
(20% and trapping with AA, he could not be trapping at all and he could be trapping with much more than AA)
if he cb 100%, and calls push with top pair+ and straight+flush draws, he would call 56% and we would have 40,8% EQ when he calls.
when he calls: 30*40,8%-14bb = -1,76bb
from folding: 44%*4bb = 1,76bb
So if the limp range is correct and he cb 100%, and calls with all top pairs no matter kicker then it doesn't matter if he folds or pushes. However it is likely that he doesn't cb 100% (maybe he would check some gutshots or bottom pairs that he would fold to push), that makes our fold equity a little smaller, so I think folding is slightly better here. I think the problem here is that this flop hits a normal limping range pretty good. In the other scenario cdon posted with minraise and 25bb I think its a clear check raise.