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mersenneary's picture
11-14bb with marginal hands from the Small Blind: Raise, Openshove, Fold, or Limp? (Advanced ROFL Theory)

There's been some good discussion going on in that Chubokov thread, and I wanted to make sure we quickly brought the discussion of this stack depth back to what really matters: Real decisions that either cost you money or make you money. That's what theory should help out with. It shouldn't be a pointless exercise that just makes us feel cool and smart. It should make us money.In that thread, there are some cool theory tables - how deep we can jam and still have positive expectation in the hand against a superuser, and against the NASH calling range. Those tables tell us some pretty interesting things - about when to start minraising weak aces and low pocket pairs instead of openjamming, for example. That said, NASH and Chubokov are not great standards for comparison. NASH expects our opponent to call a jam with JTo for 12.5bb and JTs for 18bb - pretty unrealistic against most opponents. Chubokov expects that we are playing on Ultimate Bet and our opponent knows our cards - since UB is shut down, that's an even more unrealistic condition.So, let's bring this back to the realistic. 12bb deep, I think the random opponent will call an openshove with around the range of 22+, A2+, K8o+, K6s+, QJo, Q9s+. Certainly, there are some opponents who will call with K7o, K5s, QTo, and Q8s, if not even wider. Similarly, there are opponents who would fold K8o, K6s, QJo, and Q9s for 12bb, if not even tighter. From 25,000 games of experience, this is my best guess at a standard villain calling range at this stack depth.NASH asks, "How deep can I jam in equilibrium so that it's better than folding?". However, with the majority of the hands that we're considering shoving 11-14bb deep, we're not considering folding. When we have T7s, Q8o, J9s, 98o, 54s, if we don't shove, against almost all players, limping or minraising is going to be the best option - not folding. Because of that, looking at a NASH chart can be a pretty poor approximation - we're left to guess when NASH says jamming is better than folding with 87o 12bb deep ("you can jam up to 14.7bb!"), if whether that means we should actually be jamming 87o or not. Historically, my expectation from limping or minraising marginal hands at this stack depth has been much stronger than folding - between +0.1bb/hand and -0.2bb/hand for most holdings. So when do we jam and when do we do something else?To help us in answering this question, I've made a table. It shows the expectation of openshoving with each hand 12bb deep against this calling range. 0EV means that if we start the hand with 12bb, our expectation is to end the hand with 12bb. -0.5bb means that if we start the hand with 12bb, our expectation is to end the hand with 11.5bb.Thus, -0.5bb is the same thing as openfolding in this framework.The result might be pretty surprising to you:Here's how to interpret the color coding of this table:Better than +0.45bb (Blue): These are your premiums that always have super good expectation jamming. For some, like big pairs and KQ, minraise/call is the default strategy. For others, like 33-66, openjamming is almost always going to be best. Think about the properties of your hand and how much inducing value you have, and make a decision about how best to get it in.From 0EV to +0.45bb (Green): These hands have strong get-it-in potential, but you can at least think about limping them and folding to a jam, minraise/calling, or minraise/folding against some opponents, especially deeper than 12bb. Again, make sure to take into account the properties of your hand, though - 22 and the weak aces are basically always going to be openjams, K9-KJ make for great minraise/calling hands, and 78s can still be better to limp against an opponent who is really passive against limps. Regardless, you always have a the green light to jam when you don't have a reason for another option.Negative EV down to -0.25bb (Yellow): Openjamming loses you money overall in the hand, so you should really make sure other options aren't better. If your hand plays well postflop and your opponent is not particularly aggressive against limps, limp as standard (J9o, J7s, 98o). Some hands that induce well like K8o and Q8s may still be minraise/calls, and hands that don't play so well postflop (K2s, 54s) may still be openjams even if your opponent isn't overly aggressive against limps. The overall theme of this category: Most of these hands are too weak to openjam, even if NASH says shoving is better than folding. Only shove if it makes sense for the characteristics of the hand and your opponent type.Worse than -0.25bb, better than -0.5bb (Orange): Jamming barely has better expectation than folding with these hands, so it's unusual for it to be best. Consider limping (most of the connected offsuited hands of this color are prime limping material) and minraise/folding instead (although hands like K7o are strong enough to minraise/call). Some hands that play poorly in this range postflop may be best to openshove, but generally only when the opponent is attacking limps and minraises.Worse than --0.5bb (Red): These hands have worse expectation jamming than folding, and should usually be openfolded. When you do play them, it should usually be with a minraise or limp, against opponents who are conducive to those strategies. Keep in mind that the more you play these types of hands, the more your opponent will adjust and start jamming on you wider. I know it's a little complicated, but I hope you're all with me. I'll stop and make sure. Tomorrow, I'll post some "standard" raising, openshoving, folding, and limping ranges at this stack depth, making use of all this information.mers

JackTheShipper's picture
havent read even half of the

havent read even half of the thread yet, but just wanted to point out, how i appreciate ur use of humour in the sometimes less 'GAMBOOL POKER SUPERTURBO FUN' strategy topics to lighten things up a bit.such as "Chubokov expects that we are playing on Ultimate Bet and our opponent knows our cards - since UB is shut down, that's an even more unrealistic condition."

Barewire's picture
I'm merely posting to show

I'm merely posting to show off the fact that I can, and to give credit to an extremely awesome OP

Check out my blog (Updated 4/10) and my coaching page!

JackTheShipper's picture
krabbbbbbbbbbb!! :) u so sexy

krabbbbbbbbbbb!! :) u so sexy

magnanimity's picture
Soo Awesome.  Hate that I

Soo Awesome.  Hate that I have to go to work right now instead of starting to impement this into my game!!  

School47's picture
YO mers! too many letters,

YO mers! too many letters, but i read it all with tranlate.google.com. I think, most of material i know from urs videos, but this thread very usefull anyway! GJ! i will print table from this article.Also  i  like humor about UB )

mersenneary's picture
Again, for people who love

Again, for people who love the theory angle of it, the OP should be super delicious. For people who get confused about this kind of stuff, I still think you can understand a lot of it, but I'll also post a detailed list of recommendations for how to play certain hands from the small blind readless, in easy to read format. Remember, though, that 10-15bb deep play is all about exploiting your opponent's tendencies, so there will never be "here's what is optimal always".

mersenneary's picture
A chart for 12bb deep SB play

So, for example, here's a pretty good approximation of some decent standard ranges at this stack depth: There's a lot of questions that should arise from this. I think my next step for this thread will be to answer a bunch that I anticipate. Go ahead and post your questions, too. This is the bread and butter of my historical success 10-15bb deep from the small blind - hands shift between ranges based on stack size and opponent tendencies, but 12bb readless provides a decent snapshot, I think.

mersenneary's picture
 ROFL Q&A1. Wow! This

ROFL Q&A 1. Wow! This looks so cool. Is it a new equilibrium? Is it balanced?   Some aspects of our range are definitely balanced – our minraising range, for example, despite having all of our monsters, also has a ton of junk in it. Similarly, while the openjamming range has a lot of suited connectors in it, it also has a good amount of Ax and pocket pairs. The biggest thing that makes this not close to an equilibrium is our limping range – it's all stuff that's folding to a shove. That's obviously highly exploitable. However, remember one of the most important axioms of poker: If you want to exploit your opponent, you have to be exploitable. Maximum money comes from exploitable strategies. Force your opponent to adjust and start jamming over your limps wide, and then re-adjust in response to that. I will note, though, that this strategy only calls for limping once every 6 buttons or so – your opponent is unlikely to feel like he's getting limped to death.  2. Why are some hands openshoves and other hands limps or minraise/calls, despite having the exact same expectation when jamming?   54s and K2s are very different hands than J7s and Q9o, despite having the same expectation when going all-in. The latter duo plays much better in limped pots, whereas K2s and 54s don't have the luxury of that alternative. It all goes back to the main point: We should compare the expectation of plays against the expectation of the next best option. That's why looking to NASH for most of these decisions can lead you astray.  3. Are you sure about these ranges as standard? I would play a certain hand differently readless. Am I wrong?   No, you're not wrong, but let's talk about it. There's a lot of wiggle room for a lot of these hands – if you want to limp JTo or minraise/fold 95s, I'm not going to argue with you. However, if you think openjamming K3o, Q2s, or 97o is best readless 12bb deep, there are strong reasons to believe it isn't, so let's get into them. Same goes for if you want to limp 53s readless.  4. Are you sure the openjamming range isn't too weak? It seems like there are a lot of weak hands in that range and no big hands. Can't our opponent exploit us by calling wider?   It is a little weak – the big blind is correct to open up his calling range wider in response to this jamming range. And that's what you'll see a lot at nosebleeds – people call openshoves pretty wide 11-14bb deep because of the ranges they represent. If you feel like your opponent has picked up on how much you're exploiting his fairly tight but standard calling range and starts to open up, there's one pretty easy adjustment you can make: Start openjamming your strong Ax hands as well. Those hands have pretty mediocre inducing value regardless because of how poorly they play postflop if you get flatted, and the value from openjamming goes way up if your opponent is calling jams wide.  5. It seems like a bunch of small differences. Are you sure this even really matters that much? Aren't there more important things to be worrying about?  Keep in mind that NASH is -EV against the NASH calling range from this stack depth. People should still have positive expectation using most strategies, but I think my expectation has been very good, with EV-adjusted winnings from the small blind 10-15bb deep at +$27,000 in equity since December. That's just from this stack depth, just from the small blind, and EV adjusted. It's about 8bb/100 over a huge sample. I'm not sure what other people's are numbers are, but I think those show some pretty strong proof that the expectation from having ranges like this can be really good. It goes back to the Ed Miller link in the Essential Reading List – sure, it can be hard to get motivated about improving in certain situations by 0.2 big blinds. However, because these situations constantly come up in endgame play, your leaks get magnified over time, and you lose a lot of money by not playing optimally. 6. How does your approach change as stack depths get shorter?   The expectation of your marginal hands goes up significantly and your opponent will jam wider over limps, so many more hands become openshoves. You can and should still limp hands that have mediocre jamming expectation but play decently postflop, such as Q5o, T7o, and J7o 10bb deep. In general, people are willing to get it in wider from the big blind, so minraise/folding becomes less attractive as well, although I think you absolutely should have a minraise/folding range against most opponents 10bb deep. Getting flatted is even more of a disaster with Ax, so those hands can become openshoves as well. Basically, the ranges squeeze tighter and start to more closely approximate the shove or fold +EV equilibrium for the small blind 8bb deep or less.  7. How does your approach change as stack depths get deeper?   15 big blinds deep can be a haven for limping, given how much the big blind has to risk to jam over them. More hands on the openshove list become limps or raise/folds (the better the hand flops, the more likely it is to be a limp. T7s, for example, is a great hand to limp 15bb deep. Some hands that were strong enough to raise/call, like K7o, aren't strong enough against most opponents anymore, and move to the limping range. Low Ax and weak pocket pairs are still great jamming hands even 15bb deep. Against opponents who aren't willing to reshove wide, it's very important to pound your opponent with minraises 13-15bb deep – this simply prints money, especially when you do it with a polarized range and keep limping your middling hands.  8. How do you adjust against a passive opponent who calls about this range when you openshove?  Against a passive player who plays meekly in limped pots, the openshoving range goes down a ton. Even though the expectation for jamming remains unchanged, the expectation for limping is significantly increased. Pretty much everything middling in green becomes either a limp or a minraise/fold, with most of them being limps. Ax and small pocket pairs remain in the openjamming range. How much to raise/fold depends on your opponent's VPIP from the big blind – most of the value is from preflop folds, so make sure you're not raising too much into a station.  9. How do you adjust against a very aggressive player who is 3bet jamming and shoving over limps a wide margin, in addition to calling openshoves with this range?  Cut down on your minraise/folding range, widen your minraise/calling range for inducing, openjam more hands that have -0.2 to -0.4 expectation from jamming because the other options aren't nearly as appealing. Love life when you're getting dealt hands, hate life when you're card dead.  10. How does this change against an opponent with a tighter or a wider calling range?   Pretty much as you might expect – a tighter calling range means more hands become jams, and a wider calling range means that you should consider limping or minraise/folding more of the marginal hands in our jamming range instead.

flettl2's picture
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mersenneary's picture
Come on, I know some of you

Come on, I know some of you still have a lot more questions than the conversation I had with myself. A few of you have told me privately you think this is gold, but I think it has a lot to it that's fleshed out a lot better with discussion.

Ph33roX's picture
First of all I want to say

First of all I want to say this is by far the best content so far on the forum, thanks for the hard work mers, this table is amazing. A few questions:1. Isn't 66 big enough of a monster 12BB deep to induce by raise/calling? Or that are not many hands with an undercard to the 6 that we can induce from? What makes K7o inducing and 66 not?2. How do we adjust those ranges vs some1 who flats a lot preflop, doesn't 3bet-shove very much but plays quite aggro post?

mersenneary's picture
1. I think 77 is where the

1. I think 77 is where the borderline is, yeah. So there's two reasons why K7 is a better minraise/call than 66.Firstly, K7 has better equity against added stuff of the wider 3bet jamming range. Against K5s-K2s,Q8s-Q4s,J7s+,T6s+,95s+,85s+,75s,K7o-K4o,Q7o+,J7o+,T8o+, a range we don't have him calling an openjam with, K7o does about 3 percentage points better than 66.Secondly, I think K7o actually plays better postflop than 66. Our opponent's strategy when they flat is going to be to play mostly fit or fold, and try to hit a pair. That strategy plays much better against 66 (if you hit a pair, you almost always have the best hand) than K7.

mersenneary's picture
2. How do we adjust those

2. How do we adjust those ranges vs some1 who flats a lot preflop, doesn't 3bet-shove very much but plays quite aggro post?Ax hands become more jams pre. After that, it gets a little weird, because it depends on how spewy he's playing in limped pots. You definitely want to minraise stuff that flops well. I'd of course cut down big time on my minraise/folding range.

Champaz's picture
This is pure gold

I have been having some problems with people who flatt a ton as well, would you suggest straight up folding your minra/folding range or would you try to limp some of those hands? Ofcourse this depends heavily on how he responds to your limps but say he shoves a reasonable standard amount. I dunno it just feels kinda weak to open fold tons of hands but maybe that's good sometimes.Another question, maybe not super related but I hope it's ok, how can I calculate what hands to 3bet jam with if I wanna take the card removal effect into account?

mersenneary's picture
It depends how much they are

It depends how much they are 3bet shoving. Less 3bet shoving is better for minraise/folding, expanded calling range from the bottom side of it (e.g. if they're going to call 96o) makes folding better with your 54o. You can limp the more limpable stuff - Q4o, J5o, T6o, 96o, etc, in response to this, but generally limping T2s isn't going to be best.To calculate 3bet jamming taking cardremoval into effect, you can use CardRunners' EV software or I believe ProPokerTools does it as well. I wouldn't get THAT bogged down in the numbers, though - you can always make a manual adjustment after you do it without card removal, and just use that to give you a general sense of it.

jackoneill's picture
People who're 3bet-jamming wide, but flatting extremely tight

How do I adjust against people who have an extremely tight flatting range, but a fairly wide 3bet-jamming range ?For instance, someone who's calling <15% and 3bet-jamming >35%.First adjustment is to remove all these raise/folding hands.  When we get shallower, is it a good idea to openjam these according to Chubokov ?Then, some of the openshove hands probably become raise/calling hands.  How about the weak Ax and weak suited Kx hands - are these still openjams or do they become raise/calling hands ?


jackoneill's picture
When they aggressively attack your limps

When someone aggressively attacks my limps - do these limping hands become raise/folding hands ?  Or do I simply fold them / openjam according to Chubokov ?


jackoneill's picture
Below 8bb

So what's my plan when we're below 8bb and the guy does not let me limp-stab ?Chubokov ?


mersenneary's picture
"How do I adjust against

"How do I adjust against people who have an extremely tight flatting range, but a fairly wide 3bet-jamming range ? For instance, someone who's calling <15% and 3bet-jamming >35%. First adjustment is to remove all these raise/folding hands.  When we get shallower, is it a good idea to openjam these according to Chubokov ?"We can still raise/fold a lot of junk if the BB isn't playing that many hands.Seriously. Forget Chubokov. It is doing awful things for your endgame thinking. Forget you ever heard of it. Just think about NASH and jamming wider than NASH or tighter than NASH based on your opponent's tendencies.

mersenneary's picture
CHUBOKOV IS NOT A STRATEGY.

CHUBOKOV IS NOT A STRATEGY. We never ever adopt a plan of "jam according to Chubokov".

mersenneary's picture
Wow hadn't read the next two

Wow hadn't read the next two posts yet either... :pIf your opponent is jamming over limps quite wide, start trapping more often, and raise/fold or openfold more often with those marginal holdings. Jam based on NASH and whether your opponent is calling tighter than the NASH calling range or wider.

mrbambocha's picture
Yea great stuff, why didnt I

Yea great stuff, why didnt I think about this before?Hey mers, do you wanna sleep my sister?Haha, kidding, but I would let you if I had one (unfortunly I only have a brother), pure amazing stuff! Wtf I can't belive that there are so many flawed beliefs about the endgame, Nash/ Chubakov.Will read it through a few more times, implement it, and return with some questions for sure.. 

thecupshalffull's picture
Pure Gold

Wow, such a helpful chart and explanation of how to adjust to different player types.  Thanks Mers :]

jackoneill's picture
What's my plan if someone

What's my plan if someone raises my limps at these stack depths to a huge, but non-all-in size, basically forcing me to either jam or fold ?


mersenneary's picture
You're not limp/calling 3xes

You're not limp/calling 3xes a ton anyway. Basically just start limping AA-JJ always, minraise more of your marginals, you can also throw in some KJ/KQ/QJs type hands to limp and get it in vs a raise.

paddygo1's picture
delicious stuff. thanks a lot

delicious stuff.thanks a lot mers