P4 Adjusted win

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nomar2408's picture
New User
Joined: Nov 5 2009



Hi all,

i paused for a while playing poker and restarted with hyper heads up on stars, 1.44 and now 3.5 buyin. I now have the trial of PT4 an read in all the Hand history. I am pretty shocked by the c net adjusted graph - i understand the calculation behind but i kind of really doubt it. Is there anything which can make this graph not really reliable based on the style of play with no allin or somehting like that?

I was pretty confident with playing and winning, nothing special in terms of bad beats but vice versa. i see so many bad calls where i am way ahead etc but with those graphs it looks like i am actually a loosing player on that sample? Is the graph saying that or is there anything which can make this graph behave like this but my play is okay?






coffeeyay's picture
Joined: Jan 3 2011
There is nothing unreliable

There is nothing unreliable about the adjusted line. Nothing related to play-style. You're above EV, running good in all-ins and that's that :)

It's a pretty small sample, and while EV stats are subject to less variance they still are a form of results so subject to sample size issues. However, EV results are strictly more predictive than real money results--so when thinking about your game, you can believe your EV results are worse than your true win-rate but you can't use real money results to corroborate that.

Keep playing and working on your game :)