2009 NBA playoff preview
As someone who watches almost all of the Cavs regular season games as well as having league pass, I thought I'd throw out my two cents on how I see the playoffs turning out with a little bit of bias towards the team with the best record in the association this year:
Eastern Conference:
1 Cavs vs 8 Pistons - Detroit used to always try to bully the Cavs when they were just babies a few years ago, but after Cleveland beating them in 2007 in 6 games, the Cavs clearly have a strong mental edge over a team which isn't sure what direction it is trying to go in. Prince isn't a bad guy to guard Lebron with and Rasheed and McDyess are solid interior players but their lack of depth and overall feeling that they want their season to be over with makes it look like an easy win for Cleveland. I think Detroit will steal game 3 at the Palace but Cleveland will roll in every game at the Q and win game 4 in Detroit. Cleveland wins in 5.
4 Hawks vs 5 Heat - I keep going back and forth on this one. Miami has the second best player in the league although his supporting cast is comparable to what Lebron had to deal with most of his career. Atlanta has a nice core of Smith, Horford, Bibby, and one of the most underrated swing men in the league, Joe Johnson. I think homecourt and the fact that D-Wade will get worn down by having to put his team on his back for 2 straight weeks will give Atlanta a slight edge. Don't also forget the atmosphere in Atlanta last year during their Boston series, definitely very tough to beat on their floor in the playoffs. Hawks win in 7.
2 Celtics vs 7 Bulls - This is a very tricky series although on the surface you would think "the big 3" and Co. would roll. The Bulls are much better then their record indicates now that they have gotten rid of the dead weight that they received from the Cavs in Drew Gooden and Larry Hughes. Salmons and Miller have been solid and Derek Rose will be an 8 year+ all star in this league. The key is the news that came out today that Garnett may miss the playoffs this year and is not even able to participate in any type of practices yet. I think Boston still is a slightly better team, although not by much. Assuming KG doesn't do anything except make big baby cry from the sidelines in an expensive suit, I'll say Chicago pushes them near to the limit. Boston wins in 6.
3 Magic vs 6 76ers - After watching the 76ers beat the Cavs last night at the Q by 1 in overtime despite Lebron James, Z, joe Smith, Ben Wallace, Mo Williams not playing a minute and Delonte West and one of the most underrated players in the league, Anderson Varejao, only playing the first half, I can't help but peg the Sixers as the worst team not scheduling their vacations yet (they actually might be, they just won't be able to start them for another week or 2). Turkoglu might not be completely healthy yet, and Orlando has their question marks against the Cavs or a healthy Celtics, but they will roll here. Dalembert is just about the only big man they can even throw at Howard. Easy pick giving Orlando, and I'd consider it a surprise if Philly even steals a game at home. Another quality prediction by Stephen A. Smith at the beginning of the season saying Philly would push Boston this year all the way. Orlando wins in 4.
Western Conference:
1 Lakers vs Jazz 8 - This series is intriguing to me in many ways. Utah has struggled as of late but I consider them one of the better teams in the west, being a team with a deceiving record because of their injuries. Milsap has developed into a quality big man and they have the second best point guard in the league in Derron Williams. However, LA is just too strong and will win this series. Picking in how many games is sort of tricky because Utah is so tough at home. I guess I'll go with LA in 5, figuring they'll steal either game 3 or 4 in Utah. LA wins in 5.
4 Portland vs Rockets 5 - Another incredibly tricky series. I would of loved to see both these teams with different matchups, as I like both teams. However, Portland has never been in the post season and that will prove to be important as their young talent finds out when they face a tough and physical Houston team. All the Rick Adelman coach of the year talk bothers me some because losing T-Mac may be addition by subtraction as they can play through Yao Ming now who is one of the top centers in the league. Rockets win in 6.
2 Nuggets vs Hornets 7 - I am still baffled Denver has finished second in the west, but I'm still not totally sold on them. Billups is a great floor general and their bigs have been nice but it's still strange to see a team like this come together. N.O. has had injury troubles and their depth is beyond terrible, and will struggle I think. Billups is a physical point guard who will not trouble Paul, but perhaps slow him down just a touch. If Paul isn't playing his A++ game then Denver wins this series easily. I'm going to go on a limb though and take the Hornets just because I don't like Denver and think having the best player in the series on their team will help the Hornets. Hornets in 6.
3 Spurs vs 6 Mavericks - The two weakest teams in the west meet here. I'd say the Spurs are the only team with a great chance to beat the Lakers in the series but losing Ginobli makes them nothing special to me. Add the fact that Tim Duncan hasn't been completely healthy and it's easy to see why they don't scare anyone. However, Dallas hasn't been anything too scary either and San Antonio does seem to have their number. Plus I consider Tony Parker the #3 PG in the league and is having a great year. I'll take the Spurs by a hair. Spurs win in 7.
Second round:
Cavs vs Hawks - Cleveland beat Atlanta 3 out of 4 times this year and Atlanta is tough at home like I mentioned. However, Atlanta won't come close to winning any games at the Q so it just comes down to how many games it takes for Cleveland to win this series. Atlanta will be a little worn out from a tough series with Miami and can keep their heads high that they've taken another step in the right direction by advancing to the second round. Cavs in 5.
Celtics vs Magic - With KG, Boston wins this series, no questions asked. However, without him, they just aren't much more then a 47-49 win team over 82 games. Orlando doesn't have home court, but trying to use 6'7 Glen Davis, 6'8 Leon Powe, Mikki Moore, and Kendrick Perkins on Dwight Howard will be amusing at times. Orlando steals one game in Boston and wins every game at home. Disclaimer - all this is thrown out the window if KG comes back and is playing like he did last year. Magic in 6.
Lakers vs Rockets - This series I can't wait to see happen. Everyone will see the Pau Gasol led lakers taken all the way to the limit by a Rockets team with great perimeter defenders and a superb center. Bynum should be back and firing on all cylinders by this point and LA still has too much talent, especially considering they have home court. Lakers in 6.
Hornets vs Spurs - I find this side of the bracket to be much weaker, and after barely beating the Hornets last year with a healthier team, I don't see New Orleans losing it. Closet lovers Parker and Paul will be a great battle vs each other and the 17 foot assassin David West should stretch the defense nicely leaving space for Tyson Chandler to continue to look like a much better player then he really is. Hornets either win in 6 or lose in 7 but i had to change my mind on this and go with the experience and good coaching of the Spurs. Spurs in 7
Conference Finals:
Cavs vs Magic - This series will be a war as Orlando matches up pretty well with Cleveland. Orlando likes to shrink the floor and force teams into jump shots, which doesn't fit Lebrons ideal conditions. However, I don't think Dwight Howard is a firery enough character to really lead his team to a championship and the Cavs have home court remember. Not to mention, Magic rely on the 3-ball way too much and when you live by the 3 you die by the 3. Gonna be a memorable series. Cavs win in 7
Lakers vs Spurs - The spurs vs LA would be a great matchup with a healthy team but instead of Ginobli and a completely healthy Duncan its Matt Bonner and Drew Gooden trying to fight off the Lake show which will make things next to impossible. Not much else to say on this one except LA will roll. Lakers in 5
Finals:
Cavs vs Lakers - Lebron vs Kobe will be all the talk and it should be an incredible series. Home court is going to prove to be incredibly valuable for the Cavs once again as I think every game will be won by the team on their home court. Finally I can be happy with a sports team I root for as the Cavs win a championship and I get to party like its 1999. Cavs win in 7
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RyPac13 says:
Great post, I agree with most of what you're saying here. A few points:
Cavs-Pistons - Spot on.
Heat-Hawks - Tough to take Heat bc they don't have home court and player by player they are definitely a step below Atlanta in terms of talent and raw skill. It's also tough to know how the young guys will show up, but I trust they will show up plenty with Wade there, Spoelstra also seems to know his shit and I think he's my 2nd pick for coach of the year in the East (Brown is 1 I'd say by a fair margin).
The Hawks haven't been playing well and they played at the top of their game last year in the postseason. But they were riding a heater at that point, this year is a little different. They wouldn't even make the playoffs if they were in the West. So while I don't love Atlanta, I think the Heat are less talented and there are plenty of questions for them as well. I'd take Atlanta in 7 as well.
Bulls-Celtics - While I love my Bulls, I think this one is going to be one of those trendy upset picks that is shortly forgotten. I like Rose, but he hasn't turned the corner leadership wise. Miller hasn't been playing great and while we've played very well at home, we just played atrociously flat in the final home game against Toronto that was for the 6th seed. KG being out also helps us, but the Celtics played so badly last year in round 1 and still beat a super hot Atlanta team in 7. I do expect us to win if we play as well for our potential as Atlanta did last year, but we'll have to shoot lights out and not make dumb turnovers.
Defense is also a problem, our interior defense has been a little lacking lately, despite Noah, Thomas and even Miller being decent defenders. Rondo is going to tear up Rose (he's lacking on D this year) and while Salmons is a good 1 on 1 defender, our D just hasn't gelled enough since the trade to legitimately call ourselves solid on that end. We have spurts where Salmons guards great, Thomas blocks tons of shots and Noah shuts down good centers, but it just all rarely comes together well. I
The other aspect of this is that everybody is now writing off the Celtics. Even before KG's injury it had turned into the "Celtics are good but they can't get by the Cavs, no chance" chant. While I think Cleveland is by far the favorite to win the East, I don't see how the Celtics have "no shot" at beating them. Cleveland has improved a ton since last year, but so have the Celtics, and there's a ton of pressure riding on Cleveland. It may not be enough for the Celtics to win a series against them without some good variance (Cavs running cold on offense, Celtics playing great on their end) I do think the underdog, nothing to lose type mentality that the Celtics probably have right now is going to make them play very well against the Bulls. I think we take one or two at home, but unless we are playing our best every night, I don't think we can push 7 or win it. I'll say Celtics in 6, but I really want to say 5.
Orlando-Philly - I'll keep this one short, as I agree with everything you're saying here. I will go Orlando in 5, just bc I think Orlando is a team that turns out too many duds when they are dominating (they turned one in vs us not too long ago and last year against Detroit in the playoffs was horrible for Howard). I could see them winning the first 2 or 3 then letting one go and/or Philly getting hot in a game or two and stealing one. So I say Orlando in 5.
Out West....
Lakers Jazz - The Lakers look so focused and have been playing so well. They seem to have such a purpose and while they may not look as seamless with Bynum in the lineup as they probably would like, the Jazz didn't even look like they belonged in the same league with them the other night in that 4th quarter. Just too much execution from a more talented team, especially down low. Lakers sweep.
Rockets-Blazers - A tough one. First off, Adelmen for COY is retarded, that sounds like another Stephen A Smith call. I hate when people say stuff like this, they have Yao who should keep improving for how weak he still has been. Their core is back and should improve. I don't have numbers in front of me, but did they even really win anymore games this year than last? They also didn't have Yao going into the playoffs, so I'm not sure where Adelmen's major contribution from last year to this year is.
As to the series, I think the Blazers are still a year or two and some more development and/or trade away from reaching the 2nd round. They could very well win this series, but like you, I expect to see the Rockets win this in 6.
NO-Denver - Despite you throwing a few bones to me (Bulls) and now Phenom (N.O) I think Denver takes this one. Depth on NO is very shaky this year and I really think Scott is done if they lose this series. Maybe I'm way off there, but every game I've seen (maybe 4) from the Hornets, they just seem to not even listen to their coach half the time. Paul is a dream competitor, but even he seems to "tolerate" some of his teammates at times, and not in the "he's just Jordan" way, more like "I'm out of this place if they don't start fixing shit" way. But again, I could be way off here. While I don't see Denver as an "elite" 2nd seed, they did barely win the 2nd seed and we're so used to them sucking. I feel like they are vulnerable, but I like them in 6 over NO.
Mavs-Spurs - I feel like somebody is going to come out hot here. Parker and Duncan are the definition of playoff performers. Dirk and Terry can be almost unstoppable when they have the hot hand (Dirk especially) and Howard has been playing well. I can see it going either way, but I feel like one of these teams is going to play like you said (weakest teams in the West, while I don't agree, they are near the bottom given Spurs injuries and age and well... Dallas half assed rebuilding phase) and I feel like the other will benefit and get hot. Hopefully at least one is hot, but if both teams catch fire this will be one helluva first round. I say Spurs in 7 bc I can't for the life of me bet against Parker and Duncan but at the same time I dont' like them enough to take them in 6.
Well, this felt like a super long review, I think I've played like a dozen games in between this. I'll end now, as you and maybe Phenom or Maxv2 are prolly the only ones that will read this.
I'll say Cleveland handles Atlanta in 5, Boston squeeks out Orlando in 7 and Cleveland beats Boston in 5 or 6, maybe 6 or 7 if KG comes back somehow.
In the West I like the Lakers to beat the Rockets in 6 (I think after a big first round they will overlook just a tad in the 2nd round) and Denver to beat SA in 7. Lakers will handle Denver in 6 I'll say, bc Denver should be playing really well if they reach the West finals. And sorry Brendan, but I think this is Kobe's last stand before the torch is passed, Lakers in 7.
Let the games begin.
croixdawg says:
Obv losing in 4 to DEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEETROIT BASKETBALL
ThePhenom919 says:
Hopefully Byron Scott is shit canned after this year...he's the worst coach of the year of all time. Bring back Jannero Pargo, and hire Jeff Van Gundy. After yest's game, I wouldnt be surprised if we got swept. FWIW I got the same finals outcome as u Brendan ;)
TP919