4 posts / 0 new
Last post
Baetis X's picture
True ROI

Hi,

I've recently started back at the micros on PS playing strictly the $1.50 games until I get a firm grasp of the general, thankfully awful, tendencies of the population. Since  I've 'properly' started this week I' ve only played 150ish games. My SS graph gives me 17.2% for 154 games. Obviously too tiny a sample to glean anything from and I'm positive I'm running well above EV, so I got the 30 day PT4 trail to see where I'm really at. It gives me 5.29% for roughly the same amount of games. 

So my question is this,which is more on the correct side. I'm quiet happy with the result PT gives me but I'm wondering which such a large discrepancy and  should I avoid SS altogether as it may give me a false since of where I'm at and give me the opinion I'm beating the games well when this may not be the case and over confidence may start to effect my games. Graphs below, but purely for a visual, nothing more. Cockiness ain't my thing.

 

http://imgur.com/a/bM1An

 

Baetis X's picture
PT 4
coffeeyay's picture
PT4 in $ using overlay net

PT4 in $ using overlay net adjusted is the most predictive of future results. It's strictly more predictive then actual results and is not biased in any way. It's still results, so still suffers from sample size issues, but if you're going to look at any results to estimate your progress it's strictly better to look at the EV adjusted results in PT4 then actual results.

Baetis X's picture
Thanks for your reply.

Thanks for your reply.