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Sustainable ROI in the turbos?
June 17, 2012 - 06:19
Hey, I switched to HU SnG a few months back and started on the $7 turbos, quickly moving up to the $15s (Probably too quickly) where I experienced a pretty bad downswing (Combination of running bad and lower edge I think). So due to that and a few withdrawals my BR dropped to around the $350 mark, where I tried out some Hyper$3.50s. whyere I also found my EV was breakeven, so not much of an edge for me there atm. Just yesterday I decided to check my ROI for various limits and formats and found that over a pretty small sample (258 games) at the $7 and 7EU turbos my ROI is a pretty solid 12%.
Now, I have a feeling this isn't sustainable. My graph and Chip EV is showing that i'm actually running just below EV, so it's not just me crushing in all in spots. Obv my card distribution has probably been good over these games. But since i'm not running way above EV and that ROI is pretty high, does this mean I am pretty much crushing the $7 turbos? And if so what is the highest sustainable ROI you can get in these games? Also, are the $15s really that much harder to beat or WAS I just running bad in them? :D
June 17, 2012 - 07:15#1
258 games isnt really a
258 games isnt really a reasonable sample
a 12% roi is probably sustainable by a good player at the 7s,most of the players are pretty terrible.
there will still be a ton of bad players at the 15s,but there will be fewer recreational players at that level and more regs,many of the regs wont be great but there will surely be a few that have a clue.
i think a sample of 2k+ sngs would be a much better baseline to start determining your roi.
but by all means,if you continue to improve your game take a few shots at the higher limits.
im a bit of a BR nit myself,currently playing the 5.75+.25 turbos on carbon and my roll is $260.
i started with $200 but im only about 250 games in this months (tonights session was pretty gross....how many times in a row can AK lose vs Ax or OP vs UP....8 in a row but thems the breaks)
I do occassionally sit some of the 10+.50 regs and 11+.50 turbos if i cant get any action at the lower limits by i usually game select those a little harder.i have nothing to prove and see no need to sit regs with 10% rois when im just trying to build my roll and get my mind back into playing shape since the BF layoff.
June 18, 2012 - 17:35#3
The bigger the sample size,
The bigger the sample size, the smaller the deveration from your ROI to your real ROI. There is a free article aobut it: http://www.husng.com/content/given-my-results-what-should-my-confidence-level-be-about-my-true-winrate-0
If you wanna know how you are doing, do the sesseion afterwork (session analysis) or let a coach make a leakfinder video. It will not show you your real ROI, but it will give a rough ideo of 'where' you currently are at.