Part 1: Introduction - discussion thread
Feel free to ask any questions about the content of the specified video in this thread.
Just a note, the video is listed as 13 minutes on the info link, but it's actually only 11 before there are 2 minutes of dead air.http://www.husng.com/content/chadders-hyper-turbo-heads-up-video-series-informationI do have a couple of questions as well, but i'll have to review my notes. Can anyone explain why my hard returns aren't showing up?
Hi,
I really loved the grounding effect, the pointing towards the realistic average things you could expect in this vid.
I still have 4 questions about this vid.
Thanks beforehand for the answers.
Can you give a pointer to the equations you used for your risk of ruin math?
Can you comment how you came to some results in your variance table?
1) Namely you state expected profit (no of buyins) = 12BI for 1% ROI 500 games
500*0.01*1BI = 5 BI with me
Even if you would include the rake of 2% you mentioned in your vid : 500*0.01*(1*1.02BI)=5,1 BI with me
Even if you would include avg rakeback of 33% you mentioned in your vid : 500*0.01*(1*1.02 BI) + 500*((1*0.02)/3) BI= 5,1+3,33= 8,43 with me
2) Do you want to give some pointers to the equations how you calculated chance of loss?
3) Do you want to give some pointers to the equations how you calculated chance of earning <50% profit?
I didn't actually do the calculations I sourced them from other articles and blogs, most of what I took can be found in this article:
http://www.nsdpoker.com/2011/03/hu_pro/
If you want to find more about the binomial calculations (which is not necessary at all unless you just like Math!) I would reccomend trying the Maths of Poker or an article like this http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler's_ruin
I want to politely suggest that you make a note about the expected winnings including rakeback.
In the article link you provided the author took the assumption that the rake = 1/22 of the rake-free buyin.
1/22*1BI=0.04545 BI or a rake-% of 4.54%
33% rakeback means you actually get rake back at a rate of 1.5151%
If you know ST have a rake of avg 2%; if you bindly use his number the rakeback that is calculated is 75%.
And such if you use a rakeback % of 1.5151 your actually arrive close to 12BI earnings:
500*0.01*(1*1.02 BI) + 500*(1*1/22*1/3) BI= 5,1+7,6= 12,7.
But this is all based on the assumption that the initial rake = 4.54%
And such imo the tables have to adjusted to 8,43 like I did.
Hi chadders,
i've a general question about game selection.
I open sit my lobby and play whoever sit me, generally speaking i accept remetch and sometimes when i find a "good" player i keep playing him also if my edge is smaller compared to other players. i consider this a sort of investment, while moving up in stakes i expect to find better opponents on avarage. So i have experience of 10 games lost on 13 total for examples and without a doubt i could decline those guys that are getting the most out of me. However i consider adapting to different ranges and frequencies an ability that we have to improve and i feel that one way to improve is play smart, solid players rather than regular fishes. This obviously reflects in terms of winrate, ROI and hourly. i know is a very broad questions and probably depends on a lot of variables but i'd like to know your thoughts on this. For example could be usefull to fix a number of games and then stop against a good opponent? just don't play them?
Thanks
Spike your totally right, the article does refernce to sngs with a larger rake. These were the first videos I've made and I attempted quite a lot in my first outing so there will be a fact or two that falls between the cracks. The main point I was trying to illustrate with the graphs was that although the day to day variance in hyper turbos is bad, the month to month turnovers for regular profitable grinders are normally not subject to horrific variance. After another week or so when I get some more feedback I will post a corretions thread to address any issues that may leave people slightly confused as a result of slips on my behalf.
@ pocaja, As your moving up just play the most profitable situations, when I grinded the 60's on the regular I made no effort to sit opponents that we better than me for the challenge, that will happen naturally as you move up, and it's not really something you should spend too much time worrying about. Think about it like this, the better players at your stake will be better than the average population at the next stake up, so why don't you just play a randomer from the next stake up, it's a more profitable situation on average and you will occosionally play a better player. There are also inherit advantages to shot taking, it will make you a lot more used to the variance, which is essential when moving up, and also may alleviate any worries you have about thinking the next stake up is beatable.
This is barely related to the video, but I was curious if you had any advice for people that are starting to multitable these things? Keeping focussed, taking notes and over-rushing decisions are things I have trouble dealing with. I just started doing some low-buyin games 2-tabling to start in hopes of adjusting to it.Thanks.
Check out this entry of hokie's blog which covers that exact issue:
Hey Chadders,
Found this pack and will buy asap but can i use mb or stars? The feedback is great.
Also, can you please take a look to my question here http://www.husng.com/content/hyperturbo-all-ev-graph
Thank you and cheers!
Hi chadders,
Great video pack, cheers!
I've watched all the videos, taken notes, even wrote an essay on your strategy to help me absorb it so I think I'm implementing it fairly well. Anyway after 1000 games at $3.50 my holdem manager red line which measures all-in EV has me $300 up but I'm actually $50 down.
Just wondering if this is normal variance?
Should I just take heart from the red line result and focus on that rather than actual results?
Bit frustrating as I really want to move up in stakes but I guess there's not much to be done about losing more than my fair share of all-ins at the moment.
Would also like to say the watching vids of you and JTS discussing hands is really enlightening. You should do more.
Hi mate. Pretty nasty variance there but nothing to be worried of IMO. There's an article on RyPac's blog about incredible graphs just to make you feel better.
Cheers.
Cheers mate!
Checked out RyPac's blog and it does make me feel better :-)
I suppose I should be thankful that I'm experiencing this bad run whilst at such low stakes.
On the downside it's a bit disheartening having got absolutely nowhere after 1000 games at the $3.50 level where the quality of opposition isn't the best.
in these games it can get pretty sick at the worst of times, but greater than 100 buyin swings are rare, although you need to be prepared for them
Will update the description asap thanks.
Not sure about the returns, mine seem to work :/
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