JSpazz: Just downs this time
Hi people it's JSpazz again. I had a really rough week, I was running about 10-16 or 10-17. I'm not sure which one judging from the PT3 graph and I'm too lazy to count them in the results table. I had two -2/-3 BI days and quite a bit of breakeven days although I profitted today and I think on Thursday. I didn't put in much volume as I've been constantly hitting my stop loss and I put more time in reviewing my play and watching HUSNG vids.
A thread on 2+2 encouraged me to try the 50BB shallow no-blinds increase HUSNGs, as I imagine the ROI should go through the roof in these things. I actually liked the first two as they were only 15-25 minutes long. However, the last one took two hours and 350 hands of my time. Fortunately, I turned a ~$9 profit in these (1-1 on $5.50s and 1-0 on $11s) to leave me at $295 for this week. I did some calculations and decided that low limit NBI HUSNGs are actually quite lucrative. Using my standard half-Kelly BRM method and assuming a 20% ROI at NBIs, I should be playing $22s right now and I should be having a better hourly rate if they last less than 1 hour on average, which is probably doable (I'm not talking about 200BB snorefests). My ROI estimate is probably somewhat pessimistic but I'd rather err on the safe side.
Thus I decided to stick to NBIs only during the following week using 15BI BRM and see how things roll out to regain my confidence and find out whether this is better than regspeeds. I plan on playing 15-30 tournaments and then I'll try to estimate average length and see how big ROI do I need.
- JSpazz's blog
- Login or register to post comments
maruchan says:
curious how this is going
JSpazz says:
I haven't gotten in much volume so far due to real life obstructions. I've played 8 games so far, 3 of them going well over an hour, but the others have been mostly in the 10-25min range, so I think this should be +EV compared to regspeeds. The wait time can be atrocious though. I plan on playing at least 10-15 more until Sunday and then I'll make another post
jackoneill says:
Well, I really won't play NBI's ever again because I don't want to ruin my nice 100% lifetime ROI in these only 5 matches I played so far ;-)
I never registered for any of these games intentionally, these 5 games were all accidents until I learned how to filter them out in the lobby. Because of that, all of these games were against winning regulars - 3 of them even disappeared in the middle of the match, telling me in chat that it's -EV for them to keep playing me so he'd rather give up on the buy-in and find some fish ;-)
These matches really took a very long time, way over two hours each - but one of the other two regs told me in chat that most of his matches don't last even nearly that long, he said regulars don't sit him that often and he usually finishes fish rather quickly - and a large portion of his winrate was even from fish getting frustrated and either giving up or shoving 100% of their hands ....
Well, I'm way too scared of even the possibility of a game taking two hours - even normal regular speeds on Stars take like forever for me.
My current challenge goes into the opposite direction - playing micro stakes, but 500 chips ultra turbos.
JSpazz says:
I suppose you played deep NBIs; I'm playing 50BB shallow ones and while I had two monster 200-300 hand matches, the longest one lasted exactly 98 minutes so you can tell these nitfests don't happen too often. Also, I don't think there are nit regs playing 50BB NBIs as the action is quite scarce and the strategy wouldn't be as successful as 200BB deep (there is the risk of getting blinded down to nothing).
I'm a turbo fan myself, but the reason I'm playing these games is that they should provide a sick hourly rate: while I might get in five matches per hour at $10.50 regspeeds at 10% ROI and earn $5/hr, I might at the same time get in two matches at $22 NBIs at 25% ROI and earn $10/hr.