I had nothing else to do, so I decided to check numbers according to sharkscope x.o
2013 population vs 2014 population Hyper turbo Heads Up according to Sharkscope Top 20 regs
$36-$100 level HU Hypers
2013 population 218,000 games (01/01/2013 ~ 19/05/2013)
2014 population 270,000 games 19 (01/01/2014 ~ 19/05/2014)
2014 population growth 23.85% according to Sharkscope top 20 regs
$101-$300 level Hu Hypers
2013 population 104,400 games (01/01/2013 ~ 19/05/2013)
2014 population 125,600 games (01/01/2013 ~ 19/05/2013)
2014 population growth 20.30% according to Sharkscope top 20 regs
$300-1000 level Hu Hypers (top 5 regs)
2013 population 30,000 games (01/01/2013 ~ 19/05/2013)
2014 population 28,000 games (01/01/2013 ~ 19/05/2014)
2014 population decline 6.66% according to Sharkscope top 5 regs
THE END ... x.o
Which regs did you compare? 2013's top 20 vs 2014's? Or 2014's top 20 regs and their volume compared to last year?
Interesting stuff. I'm not sure what conclusions we can draw at this point, curious to hear what others say.
$36-$100 level ~ 2013 top vs 2014 top
$101-$300 level ~ 2013 top vs 2014 top
$500-$1000 level - only top 5 (skai, piggy, domonox, earl hind, anthonyff) ~ their volume compared to last year
I agree: very interesting.
Having read the recent posts regarding cartels my first thought was that this could be the explanation.
As the buy-ins increase the influence of the cartels is stronger as the reg:rec (regular player : recreational player) number of games played ratio narrows.
This results in less games as more players are now avoiding playing each other this year.
However, below the highest levels this is offset by the bottle-neck effect of regular players not being able to survive at the highest level due to the stronger cartel influence.
Now this is very interesting because it means that the online poker model is being heavily influenced by the cartels which are behaving like an animal species at the top of the food chain which is usually a healthy thing.
The result for online poker is that players are being hampered from rising through the levels.
Now my feeling is that this; while to the detriment of individual winning regulars, is actually to the benefit of online poker.
By holding players back there is more action at the lower levels which means it is easier to attract and keep fish playing.
This is the main long term concern for the online poker industry.
If the games were more evenly spread through the levels then a fish who just logged on and wanted to play the first available game (and who is not practicing bankroll management) is more likely to play a higher level game.
When fish do this they are likely to go broke more quickly.
This is bad for the poker industry as these fish, while paying more rake for the games they have played, are actually losing most of their money to better players and not to the poker site.
And furthermore because fish are going broke more quickly they are having a less positive poker experience and, consequently, are less likely to get hooked.
Which is to the detriment of all good players and the industry itself.
So I wouldn't be surprised if the cartels have the full backing of the poker industry.
Good luck with your letters.
Interesting conclusions in general. One bit I'd like to comment on.
"The result for online poker is that players are being hampered from rising through the levels."
This has changed already in the $60s and $100s, there are clear EV requirements to get in now that make it easy for anyone deserving to get inside. Also, the $200s have voted several players in very fairly lately, though there are no set in stone EV requirements there. The $300s of course have a large group, so it's very hard to get in there currently I believe. And $500s and 1ks are very competitive, see Chadders shots at 1ks for examples of how tough it can be.
I think perfect execution for these groups would be for the weakest regs at the $60s-1ks to be chased off and have to move down 1+ levels to where they are more competitive vs the average regs. For awhile, it was getting ridiculous, just players that had no business playing so high were moving up without having to really be tested. The software issue of having to wait in a blind que until you get a lobby to sit another player made this habit worse, and the market's "correction" is this group system. So far, I think it's worked pretty well in $500-1ks, I don't think there are a ton of weak regs in those levels. I also think $60-100s have done a tremendous job improving their systems in the last week, and this next month should really prove that people that had legitimate complaints previously will see a huge improvement.