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Mariuse's picture
how sick can variance be?

Hi i was just wondering how sick can variance be? I've been playing HUSNG for some time, in total i've played like 3k games of 3.50s, with avg. ROI of 4.5%, EV 3% ROI, however after last 100 games i realised how sick variance can be and maybe i am actually a loosing player and those 3k games are actually nothing( had played like 2k games in 1.50s as well with EV of 0.2% and results of 4% before moving to 3.50s ) . Over last 100 games i've lost 26 BIs and EV shows -21BIs . I was trying not to tilt, i've tilted maybe 5 BI maximum. Is it possible that i am not winning player even after having 3k games with positive ROI? how often does it happen  to have 37% Winrate(-26% ROI) swings over 100 games?

adam25185's picture
Hi there Mariuse I'm afraid

Hi there Mariuse

I'm afraid that's just the tip of the iceberg.

I am, in fact, more than $500 under EV in the last 4 months playing only $3.50 and $7.00 4-man HUSNG knockouts. My ROI in these games is around 20% (sounds high, but it's because of the 4-man format). However, I still regularly experience runs where I will lose $60 - 70 at the $3.50s and >$200 at the $7 games.

Additionally, the introduction of spin&gos has led to a fish-exodus making the games significantly tougher than they were last year - IMHO. 

If it's any reassurance: 100 games is nothing at all. Phil Ivey could lose money over a run that short. I would estimate that your positive ROI over 3k games clearly indicates you are a winning player. Just need to get your ROI up to lower the variance. I'd recommend some coaching.

Hope this helps.