how to figure out % chance you need to be right to make a call:

Villain bets 200 into pot of 600

bet/(pot+bet) = % chance needed

200/(200+600) = .25 or 25%

I rated this video 5 Stars. I would have rated it 6 Stars if I could have.

This is the second of your Standard membership videos I have viewed, and both of them take me well over two hours to get through. I think I spent three hours taking notes on this one.

I don't know if there were just that many interesting situations that arose in this video or you just found many new things to say about those situations. But the commentary was consistently great...not too basic, but very well explained and understandable.

I did have a few questions...

@7:00 73s Limped Pot. Board: Qh5s4hKhQd Hero triple barrels, and you explain that on the river all you are hoping to fold out is a single heart or a missed straight draw.

You go on to say that if you DO bet the river that you need to make the bet a size to wear the percentage of the range you fold out equals the percentage of the pot. For example, if you estimate you fold out 20% of his range, bet 20% of the pot. (The Idea behind this math is incorrect, as you note, but I'm just asking about the idea...).

If you bet the amount exactly equal to the percentage of his range that folds, you are essentially breaking even, correct? And if you are doing that, all you end up doing is increasing your variance, right? So you would only want to bet really if you can bet an amount LESS than that percentage. Am I thinking correctly here? And in this spot it's very doubtful that it's worth trying.Villain is probably somewhat likely to spaz-raise your super-small bet anyway, making this a terrible bet.

@17:20 6d3h 25/50 blinds. Hero leads flop: 8s5h2c. You say the lead was not goot and he should check-call one street, and the discussion ends there. Surely you meant fold and go on to the next hand???

@18:35 9c8c 25/50 blinds. Villain limps and I dont think you noticed this, but Hero minraises his 98s OOP. The reason i think you didn't notice is that on the flop, Hero check-calls and you start talking about how it is good to flat Villain's cbet there. I think you just assumed that Villain raised preflop.

Anyway, my question is...is there any reason to make this minraise against this Villain with this hand? He will always call and while 98s plays well postflop, stacks are already short and if you do hit your hand then a lot of chips are likely to go in the middle. By minraising, you are almost forcing yourself to cbet the flop and there will be a ton of unfavorable flops. This Villain also shows a propensity to call IP to a fair amount of flop bets.

@31:10 4h3h 10/20. Hero raises 3x, Villain donk 1/2 pot on Ad7d2c. You say, "I think the flop is OK." What is the reason for flatting here? He could be bluffing, but we have no reads on his donks yet. We have up to four outs (he may be donking a flush draw), but I don't understand calling here.

Thanks! Keep the videos coming! I bought a Premium membership primarily for Messeneary's endgame teachings, but I'll certainly be viewing all of your content, too.