Yes, both of those hands are possible but I think the vast majority of his range here is just single pair hands (didn't mention in the vid but I think KK is also possible here) which are very likely to fold to the shove. There are a few hand combinations which call this shove always (+ this player is no fish he can certainly hero call here) but it makes his life very difficult with a single pair hand (better then my 8x). I think this player (and most players) are cbetting QJ here a very high percentage of the time to get value from worse Jx hands so I am not very worried about that. If he has J8 exactly then we lose and our image suddenly looks ridiculous for a rematch.
You and I read hands similarly, but yield different conclusions. Typically analze stronger opponents by predicting likely responses to our perceived range. For the purpose of this exercise, my perspective is exclusively from the Villain's. Make certain generalizations since I am limited to the video contents.
Flop: J2A
As a Hyper-Aggressive player, my barreling range on wet boards is relatively polarized. I am inclined to check behind certain weaker middling hands to induce action from a weaker range while controlling the pot size. Players are likely to adjust by widening hero call ranges and restealing postflop, especially when I am likely thin value betting.
Turn: 8
Greenbast may suspect a middling hand given my line on this board texture. He would likely lead middling or strong hands because I am calling with my entire value range and folding in instances after giving up regardless of his action. He has no reason to turn weaker middling hands into a bluff and he may be reluctant to bluff since few worse hands fold. I highly doubt he takes this line with a strong hand unless he is positive that I will thin value bet the river. Greenbast's range likely consists of weaker middling hands, showdown potential, and draws unless he is being exceptionally tricky.
River: Q
When Greenbast check-raises, I immediately eliminate middling hands since those have too much showdown value. 9T and KT filled along with several Jx and Qx two pairs. How is a thinking villain likely to respond with showdown potential knowing that I am often thin value betting? Greenbast cannot call when behind but may consider restealing since I am supposed to fold to river check-raises when thin value betting. Showdown potential drastically exceeds draws. Therefore my calling range consists of weaker middling hands that beat likely showdown potential.
Great Analysis. If I suspected the player was thinking at your level while playing then I don't think the river CR is good. Many players just play way to stanardly when faced with a river check raise when it is likely they are thin value betting. I certainly play my nut type hands on the river the same some % of the time to balance my bluff range. I think that when playing someone its important to figure out how they react to unconventional lines and situations. Many winning players play very standard when faced with nonstandard desicions and fold all but the top of their range. I suspect this is the case until I am proven otherwise, if players are willing to call river check raises with their thin value betting range, I will start CRing some weak 2nd pair type hands on this type of texture for thin value.
I think greenbast' CR jam is repping such a narrow hand range....Range constructing wise.... the only plausible hands greenbast is repping are 2-pair QX combos, if its a CR value range on river......
Greenbast clearly caps his hand range with his turn play....
If Greenbast has a 1)value range:22,JJ,AX,AJ,2J,A2,8J,A8= he is leading turn for value vs villains weaker SDV hand range, and maximizing profit with his value range, since he had already checked flop
2) semibluff range: i could also see greenbast lead with K(s)X(s),Q(s)X(s),TK,9T type of hands, either with the intentions of
*) Forcing a fold from villain
*)building the pot if he does hit his hand on river
3)Bluffs
by checking turn, i could see a more capped hand range in this spot from Greenbast.
hands like weak JX,8X,2X,TKo type of medium ranged hands....
Q8,Q2,JQ are more plausible hands than anything else on river for greenbast. since we can take out alot of his KT combos, since i could see alot of leads with K(s)X type hands on turn....
Greenbast is definetly repping a very narrow value range. The straight draws are a stretch since he stands to lose obscene value if the opponent checks behind. The line essentially represents an unlikely two pair. Analyzed the hand from villain's perspective to illustrate how an observant opponent may reach a different conclusion based on Greenbast's actions.
See your point that leading the turn is the most logical bluff or thin value bet line. Rather curious about capped ranges. What is the appropriate response if we suspect an aggressive opponent has a capped range? It seems like a viable thin value betting and bluffing opportunity depending on game flow and board texture. How does this change if we are unfamiliar with villian's propensity to check raise bluff?
playing a villain with capped ranges up to river.....
1) It depends on if villain is capable of turning his SDV hands into bluff. Im most likely inclined to thin value bet them with my 2nd,third pair top kicker, type hands for value, if villain is a passive type player....
2) Isildur1 invented the overbet river play, where he sets awful odds for villain's with capped ranges to call, thus giving 1:1 odds to call, thus getting alot of folds, and with stack sizes, its so hard for villain to CR rebluff jam u, since ur getting extremely good odds to call. And if indeed villain shoves over ur overbet, then im certain they have the goods...
So when approaching a capped range, its more important for urself to construct a betting hand range, that maximizes ur value if u have value range, or minimizes losses if ur trying to bluff villain off of their mediocre hand range
1) great points.2) Isildur certainly didn't invent the river overbet, but I suppose he was an big factor in making it more popular. Overbets are still used fairly incorrectly in deeper stacked HUSNGs in the sense that they are far more for value.
nice debut! awsome/interesting video, hoping to see more in the future :-)
Not afraid of QJ/J8 in first hand? His play looks so believable imo. WP by both. more vids pls!
Yes, both of those hands are possible but I think the vast majority of his range here is just single pair hands (didn't mention in the vid but I think KK is also possible here) which are very likely to fold to the shove. There are a few hand combinations which call this shove always (+ this player is no fish he can certainly hero call here) but it makes his life very difficult with a single pair hand (better then my 8x). I think this player (and most players) are cbetting QJ here a very high percentage of the time to get value from worse Jx hands so I am not very worried about that. If he has J8 exactly then we lose and our image suddenly looks ridiculous for a rematch.
Check out my Turbo Speed HUSNG Video Pack
You and I read hands similarly, but yield different conclusions. Typically analze stronger opponents by predicting likely responses to our perceived range. For the purpose of this exercise, my perspective is exclusively from the Villain's. Make certain generalizations since I am limited to the video contents.
Flop: J2A
As a Hyper-Aggressive player, my barreling range on wet boards is relatively polarized. I am inclined to check behind certain weaker middling hands to induce action from a weaker range while controlling the pot size. Players are likely to adjust by widening hero call ranges and restealing postflop, especially when I am likely thin value betting.
Turn: 8
Greenbast may suspect a middling hand given my line on this board texture. He would likely lead middling or strong hands because I am calling with my entire value range and folding in instances after giving up regardless of his action. He has no reason to turn weaker middling hands into a bluff and he may be reluctant to bluff since few worse hands fold. I highly doubt he takes this line with a strong hand unless he is positive that I will thin value bet the river. Greenbast's range likely consists of weaker middling hands, showdown potential, and draws unless he is being exceptionally tricky.
River: Q
When Greenbast check-raises, I immediately eliminate middling hands since those have too much showdown value. 9T and KT filled along with several Jx and Qx two pairs. How is a thinking villain likely to respond with showdown potential knowing that I am often thin value betting? Greenbast cannot call when behind but may consider restealing since I am supposed to fold to river check-raises when thin value betting. Showdown potential drastically exceeds draws. Therefore my calling range consists of weaker middling hands that beat likely showdown potential.
Great Analysis. If I suspected the player was thinking at your level while playing then I don't think the river CR is good. Many players just play way to stanardly when faced with a river check raise when it is likely they are thin value betting. I certainly play my nut type hands on the river the same some % of the time to balance my bluff range. I think that when playing someone its important to figure out how they react to unconventional lines and situations. Many winning players play very standard when faced with nonstandard desicions and fold all but the top of their range. I suspect this is the case until I am proven otherwise, if players are willing to call river check raises with their thin value betting range, I will start CRing some weak 2nd pair type hands on this type of texture for thin value.
Check out my Turbo Speed HUSNG Video Pack
I think greenbast' CR jam is repping such a narrow hand range....Range constructing wise.... the only plausible hands greenbast is repping are 2-pair QX combos, if its a CR value range on river......
Greenbast clearly caps his hand range with his turn play....
If Greenbast has a 1)value range:22,JJ,AX,AJ,2J,A2,8J,A8= he is leading turn for value vs villains weaker SDV hand range, and maximizing profit with his value range, since he had already checked flop
2) semibluff range: i could also see greenbast lead with K(s)X(s),Q(s)X(s),TK,9T type of hands, either with the intentions of
*) Forcing a fold from villain
*)building the pot if he does hit his hand on river
3)Bluffs
by checking turn, i could see a more capped hand range in this spot from Greenbast.
hands like weak JX,8X,2X,TKo type of medium ranged hands....
Q8,Q2,JQ are more plausible hands than anything else on river for greenbast. since we can take out alot of his KT combos, since i could see alot of leads with K(s)X type hands on turn....
Greenbast is definetly repping a very narrow value range. The straight draws are a stretch since he stands to lose obscene value if the opponent checks behind. The line essentially represents an unlikely two pair. Analyzed the hand from villain's perspective to illustrate how an observant opponent may reach a different conclusion based on Greenbast's actions.
See your point that leading the turn is the most logical bluff or thin value bet line. Rather curious about capped ranges. What is the appropriate response if we suspect an aggressive opponent has a capped range? It seems like a viable thin value betting and bluffing opportunity depending on game flow and board texture. How does this change if we are unfamiliar with villian's propensity to check raise bluff?
playing a villain with capped ranges up to river.....
1) It depends on if villain is capable of turning his SDV hands into bluff. Im most likely inclined to thin value bet them with my 2nd,third pair top kicker, type hands for value, if villain is a passive type player....
2) Isildur1 invented the overbet river play, where he sets awful odds for villain's with capped ranges to call, thus giving 1:1 odds to call, thus getting alot of folds, and with stack sizes, its so hard for villain to CR rebluff jam u, since ur getting extremely good odds to call. And if indeed villain shoves over ur overbet, then im certain they have the goods...
So when approaching a capped range, its more important for urself to construct a betting hand range, that maximizes ur value if u have value range, or minimizes losses if ur trying to bluff villain off of their mediocre hand range
1) great points.2) Isildur certainly didn't invent the river overbet, but I suppose he was an big factor in making it more popular. Overbets are still used fairly incorrectly in deeper stacked HUSNGs in the sense that they are far more for value.
Check out my Turbo Speed HUSNG Video Pack