66 hand @ 52 mins:

have you considered leading turn in this hand?

Hey Borg, thanks for the question.

On this board texture I don't think I would ever lead the turn against anyone, however there's a couple different lines I could've taken in this spot. If I decide to c/c the flop, which I usually will in this case because he was starting to cbet more often, I'm trying to induce bluffs on this board. Any hand that we're ahead of has very very little equity on this turn card, so leading the turn doesn't accomplish anything in terms of making him peel something that wouldn't bet. I think a lot of ace high hands will either check back the flop or only pay off one bet (like the end result of the way I played the hand), but total air will only put more money in the pot if I give him a chance to bluff me off what will frequently be king or ace high hands. In my opinion the most interesting part of the hand is the river, where I could both lead for value and check/call. When villain checks back the turn, he'll occasionally have ace high, 33-55 and 7x which will call my lead, but more often than not he's going to have total air. It's difficult to extract value from this range and I ended up deciding to lead because of his past tendencies to make some bad river calls and I think against this villain in particular it's the best play. However, against fishier players who are more willing to bluff with the bet/check/bet line simply because I showed weakness with my check, I think c/c river is going to be better. 

Hope that helps, let me know if you have any other questions!

Barewire

"so leading the turn doesn't accomplish anything in terms of making him peel something that wouldn't bet."

i think A hi will peel turn but not bet it...perhaps even 33-55 (although A hi is much more likely obv)

now if he does have 33-55 or Ahi you can get more value if you lead turn+river. he's likely to call at-least one street so you get at-least as much value as you do when you lead river.

I agree with you, but there's a few things that support checking the turn in spite of that. The most important thing is that ace high and 33-55 represent and incredibly small subset of his overall range. If you look at a range of hands that are likely to raise pre and cbet the flop, you'll get hundreds of combos of total air, some combos of ace high that check the flop, 77+/8x which we're behind, and then what i would estimate to be about 50 combos of ace high, 2x and 33-55. But in addition to this, we have to consider how he plays these parts of his range. i'd argue that 33-55 will bet themselves at least one more street here.

I'd also argue that unless my opponent is seriously braindead, he's going to realize that when i c/c flop, lead turn and lead river i'm bluffing extremely rarely, and i'm not going to get that additional river bet every single time from ace high. We also run the risk of a few other problems, such as getting bluffraised at an unknown frequency, and getting raised by better fullhouses and quad hands that we would otherwise control the pot against. Again, the worse value hands that peel our leads are a small part of his range compared to better hands and air, so if we can pot control against his better hands AND occasionally get bluffs from his air, we're doing much much better overall.

i think what you achieve by leading turn+river is:

-you get maximum value from Ahi, 33-55

-it's a bet/fold on both streets because he's not bluffraising either turn or river close to ever, so we arent gonna lose a huge pot if he does have quads or a better FH. therefore we have a decent amount of pot control

-we're not missing any value in case he has a total airball because he won't bluff the turn in all likelihood

I think you're making some very strong assumptions here, but obviously you're aware of the variables to make the decision so I don't think it's bad that we settle on a different line despite having the same information. I'd encourage you though, as you start playing better players, to think about what you're representing so that they can't start adjusting extremely well to your strategy. I think your turn lead in this particular situation is incredibly transparent and that makes me shy away from it when playing someone I respect. 

i realize that my assumptions seem very strong but i honestly think they aren't too far fetched.

if i recall correctly we're perceived as a pretty aggro player so i dont see our opponent expecting alot of 66 type hands in our range as he'd probably expect us to raise the flop with that type of hand. i dont think he'll have much of a clue how to define our range and call river with A hi a decent amount (i realize it still won't happen very often)

But what would we check/call on the flop that leads the turn as a bluff? Why wouldn't we simply c/r the flop with those hands if we're an aggro player? It's an incredibly tough act to sell that we have air here, I honestly think it looks exactly like what it is. I also don't think he would expect us to c/r 66 on the flop here, I think it would be a very bad play this deep against this player, for the same reasons I was skeptical about my play on the last hand where I stacked off with J9 on a nine high two tone board. That's a whole other topic though, i don't want to clutter the comment box with too much discussion :)

well, we also need to ask ourselves if the line you actually took looks less transparent.

i think whichever line we take, it'll be a very tough act to sell that we have air.

btw. i'm by no means saying that a flop c/r would be a good play.

anyway, i don't really wanna carry this discussion on.

i see the logic in your line and i think there's logic in my line too. i doubt there's a big difference in EV between our lines . we can't find out what exactly the EV of our lines is but i'm sure it's pretty similar. hence i don't think we need to keep analyzing and debating this.

I agree, and I just want to quickly point out that when we c/c we're not trying to sell that we have air, we're trying to induce bluffs and thin value bets. He can expect us to c/c the flop with a lot of king and ace highs which will likely fold to heat in a spot that is non-standard to bluff at. Our lines are definitely going to be similar in EV in this spot, but as an overall concept I think it's very relevant. 

Thanks for the discussion =)

good point.

thanks to you too.

so my buddy just saw this video and told me i was on it. any chance i could get a copy of it? i really dont wanna renew my sub for it though.  any help is appreciated, and gg.

You have a avg stake of $95 and $21k profit and don't want to spend money for a sub?  :)  <3

dude check out the screen name, there is some truth to it :P  maybe ill do your guys rakeback program and join cake or something for a month :D

Cmon and splurge for the membership, pretty sure you have an extra $400 from today :)  (and I don't even get anything from you signing up!)

just finished watching the video, and i gotta say im a bit dissapointed in my play.   in my defence, i thought i was playing a fish the entire time because of your SS graph.  if your ever up for it id like a rematch now that i know your not a fish! gg and gl at the tables (and sorry for the nasty suckout with KQ, wp).