I had never played this opponent before but he is a winning player on SS.
Villain was MR opening >80% and CBetting every flop irrespective of texture (>90%) and also barrelling with a fairly high frequency (>50%).
This was the first real value hand that I had caught on the flop up until this point although I had been peeling flops with marginal holdings that had to fold unimproved on the turn.
Given villain's post flop betting frequencies I decided to check call the flop and the turn, given that the King is such an obvious barrel card. The Queen on the river brings another overcard to the flop and does complete some draws, although I do have a blocker to JT and AT.
Opinions on the river call?
Poker Stars $28.78+$1.22 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t15/t30 Blinds - 2 players - View hand 2728124
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter
BTN/SB: t1624 54.13 BBs
Hero (BB): t1376 45.87 BBs
Pre Flop: (t45) Hero is BB with 9
T
BTN/SB raises to t60, Hero calls t30
Flop: (t120) 3 2 9
(2 players)
Hero checks, BTN/SB bets t60, Hero calls t60
Turn: (t240) K(2 players)
Hero checks, BTN/SB bets t144, Hero calls t144
River: (t528) Q(2 players)
Hero checks, BTN/SB bets t316, Hero calls t316
Final Pot: t1160
BTN/SB shows 8h 7h (high card King)
Hero shows 9c Td (a pair of Nines)
Hero wins t1160
In this situation, everything depends on the frequency of opening of the opponent and his aggressiveness and ability to bluff, if we know that the opponent is loose and bluffing a lot, you played correctly, if the situation in a vacuum, it is best to check raise on the flop.
We need to call t314 into pot of t844, which means that we need to be good at least in 37.44% of cases in order to make it a break even call.
Given my rough calculations, I got following numbers: he has ~178 value combos in his range and ~235 bluff combos. Again, these are just my guesses, as we do not have any particular reads. But given his high cbet frequency I expect a lot of barrels on this particular board texture, as it is a great runout for him.
I expect that he jams for value all of his overpairs, TPGK, 2p, flushes, straights and sets (this also depends how he plays his small pocket pairs pre-flop). And all of his busted draws, air hands as well.
Hero has better hand 56.90% (beating villain's 235 bluff combos) of the time and hero's range is worse 43.1% of the time. Now we just need to use common sense which tells us that 43.1 >= 37.44% and hero should be calling here. Villain's capability to bluff is very important here. But even if we remove some of villain's bluff combos, it will be still profitable to call.
Good thing is that we block his 2p combos as well, so I think this is a very good bluff catcher in this particular spot. And math just proved it. Btw, it is interesting that our blocker for FD's makes just ~1% difference.
I wanted to export a range which villain might have in this spot, but my SW does not want me to, lol. I could export just starting range. If you guys tell me how to export filtered range in FlopZilla, I will be happy to share it with you.
Let me know what you think, I am open minded person and I am ready to discuss with you guys. In other words - if you think I am completely out of line, let me know :)